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LuckyOne

I Had A Very Interesting Chat With My Removal Man ...

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I am getting close to the end of my rental agreement. I have found a much better home to live in than my current home for the same amount of money for the next two years and have explicitly excluded the possbility of buying a house in the next two years.

I had a removals man over this afternoon. After he looked at my "stuff", we had a little chat about his world.

The thing that I found most interesting is that his storage space is now full and he has sub-contracted additional space.

His clients are selling and downsizing and need somewhere to store their extra "stuff". Many of them have chosen to rent rather than buy for the next few years and are waiting to see how things unfold.

His story confirms a few things for me :

- The owners of better houses are selling them as they understand that this little bounce in the market is transitory.

- Even though they have a lot of equity in their houses, they are in no rush to "put it to work".

- The demographics that he has described confirm the common belief on this site that older people own better houses. The astute ones are selling now and waiting.

- Individual behaviour is disconnected from what we read in the mainstream media. Older, relatively wealthy people are taking advantage of the current market; probably to the detriment of younger, less astute people who do not understand how markets work.

The property game is over. Once the main beneficiaries of rising prices who control the inventory start to bail out, there is no rational outcome apart from lower prices despite everything that we have read in the papers lately.

Edited by LuckyOne

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That would be us ... just sold to rent, haven't not owned a house for thirty years. Scary yet liberating!

No end of people are telling us to get back into property quickly as "house prices are going up" :rolleyes:

So now we are safely ensconced in a very nice rental property to see out the winter and watch what happens next ...

Oh - and while we were about it we got rid of a lot of 'stuff'. The excess fits nicely in the garage here. Better than paying Safestore 2 grand a year to look after it, we decided.

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I am getting close to the end of my rental agreement. I have found a much better home to live in than my current home for the same amount of money for the next two years and have explicitly excluded the possbility of buying a house in the next two years.

I had a removals man over this afternoon. After he looked at my "stuff", we had a little chat about his world.

The thing that I found most interesting is that his storage space is now full and he has sub-contracted additional space.

His clients are selling and downsizing and need somewhere to store their extra "stuff". Many of them have chosen to rent rather than buy for the next few years and are waiting to see how things unfold.

His story confirms a few things for me :

- The owners of better houses are selling them as they understand that this little bounce in the market is transitory.

- Even though they have a lot of equity in their houses, they are in no rush to "put it to work".

- The demographics that he has described confirm the common belief on this site that older people own better houses. The astute ones are selling now and waiting.

- Individual behaviour is disconnected from what we read in the mainstream media. Older, relatively wealthy people are taking advantage of the current market; probably to the detriment of younger, less astute people who do not understand how markets work.

The property game is over. Once the main beneficiaries of rising prices who control the inventory start to bail out, there is no rational outcome apart from lower prices despite everything that we have read in the papers lately.

The question that nobody seems to be able to answer is "Whos is buying these houses from the "owners of better houses" that you describe." and for top valuations as well.

It defiantely is not the mewed out NR chav buyers.

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The question that nobody seems to be able to answer is "Whos is buying these houses from the "owners of better houses" that you describe." and for top valuations as well.

It defiantely is not the mewed out NR chav buyers.

In our case they were DFLs (down from London). Just as well - a couple of local buyers had a look and liked the house but simply couldnt afford it. at something like 20 x average local earnings. Our buyers had plenty of equity in their London pad. Their buyer was a rich foreigner.

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In our case they were DFLs (down from London). Just as well - a couple of local buyers had a look and liked the house but simply couldnt afford it. at something like 20 x average local earnings. Our buyers had plenty of equity in their London pad. Their buyer was a rich foreigner.

Whats a DFL?

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The question that nobody seems to be able to answer is "Whos is buying these houses from the "owners of better houses" that you describe." and for top valuations as well.

It defiantely is not the mewed out NR chav buyers.

My point of view is very biased by personal experience but I think that the answer lies in the 40 to 50 year olds who have worked abroad in banking for most of their careers.

They have accumulated more money than they ever believed possible and, with the collapse in global markets, are starting to drift home. Even at the currently insane level of house prices, they can still live a life from their accumulated assets that far exceeds anything that they dreamed would be possible 20 years ago.

This group are a tiny sliver of the general population but they drive the prices of desirable houses higher which also drags all other house prices higher.

This tiny group probably comprises 10k to 20k people but they are large enough to change the outcome in a world where so few houses are changing hands.

The good news is that most of them are sales people and structurers rather than traders so they will have shot their wads in the next few months at best and house prices can continue to drift lower once they have spent their money.

Edited by LuckyOne

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My point of view is very biased by personal experience but I think that the answer lies in the 40 to 50 year olds who have worked abroad in banking for most of their careers.

They have accumulated more money than they ever believed possible and, with the collapse in global markets, are starting to drift home. Even at the currently insane level of house prices, they can still live a life from their accumulated assets that far exceeds anything that they dreamed would be possible 20 years ago.

This group are a tiny sliver of the general population but they drive the prices of desirable houses higher which also drags all other house prices higher.

This tiny group probably comprises 10k to 20k people but they are large enough to change the outcome in a world where so few houses are changing hands.

The good news is that most of them are sales people and structurers rather than traders so they will have shot their wads in the next few months at best and house prices can continue to drift lower once they have spent their money.

In the tech boom, they were the darlings who bought up nice properties and whole channel islands. Look up Peter Ogden for example. Now it is the turn of the bankers and property kings who cashed out, see Foxtons founder.

I wonder who the next set of people will benefit?

Agriculture ? [Jim Rogers prediction]

Mining? Gold/Silver miners?

Oil and Gas?

Green energy?

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In the tech boom, they were the darlings who bought up nice properties and whole channel islands. Look up Peter Ogden for example. Now it is the turn of the bankers and property kings who cashed out, see Foxtons founder.

I wonder who the next set of people will benefit?

Agriculture ? [Jim Rogers prediction]

Mining? Gold/Silver miners?

Oil and Gas?

Green energy?

or perhaps flat pack coffins

the guy that can do a funeral for £400 instead of £4000, is going to make to a lot of money.........

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That would be us ... just sold to rent, haven't not owned a house for thirty years. Scary yet liberating!

No end of people are telling us to get back into property quickly as "house prices are going up" :rolleyes:

So now we are safely ensconced in a very nice rental property to see out the winter and watch what happens next ...

Oh - and while we were about it we got rid of a lot of 'stuff'. The excess fits nicely in the garage here. Better than paying Safestore 2 grand a year to look after it, we decided.

b

We did this in 2006 and have recently moved into our new property, bought at a much reduced price. We sold at top and buying now as we were fed up living in a cramped flat and having belongings in storage. So relieved to have books and personal effects round me again and not worry about what to do with cash sitting in accounts earning nothing. There was also the constant hassle of finding the best rates and keeping a large stash in accounts of not more than £50,000.

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Spoke to a friend today she is now renting a flat and has rented out her house she used to live in. :o

I know a few couples that have done this and moved into smaller rented homes...but Rent only just covers the mortgage... will be in for nasty shock if they get a void period or interest rates go up quickly (Which I don't think will happen for 12 months, but after that I wouldn't be surprised if they went scary levels).

Also if your main income was in JPY....right now houses are well (I MEAN A LOT) off peak in the UK.

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or perhaps flat pack coffins

the guy that can do a funeral for £400 instead of £4000, is going to make to a lot of money.........

Imagine how long it would take the rellies to 'put together' your MFi 'flatpak' coffin :rolleyes:

Huge family arguments about where part A1278J fits!

What if bits are missing?

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Imagine how long it would take the rellies to 'put together' your MFi 'flatpak' coffin :rolleyes:

Huge family arguments about where part A1278J fits!

What if bits are missing?

Dante`s missing circle of hell is the returns counter at UREA ... (its cheap, because its shite)

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Guest The Relaxation Suite
So relieved to have books and personal effects round me again and not worry about what to do with cash sitting in accounts earning nothing.

Which was one of the exact aims of the ZIRP policy.

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My point of view is very biased by personal experience but I think that the answer lies in the 40 to 50 year olds who have worked abroad in banking for most of their careers.

They have accumulated more money than they ever believed possible and, with the collapse in global markets, are starting to drift home. Even at the currently insane level of house prices, they can still live a life from their accumulated assets that far exceeds anything that they dreamed would be possible 20 years ago.

This group are a tiny sliver of the general population but they drive the prices of desirable houses higher which also drags all other house prices higher.

This tiny group probably comprises 10k to 20k people but they are large enough to change the outcome in a world where so few houses are changing hands.

The good news is that most of them are sales people and structurers rather than traders so they will have shot their wads in the next few months at best and house prices can continue to drift lower once they have spent their money.

It could also be caused by the flood of ppl returning home from Dubai et al (well those who didn't p'ss their dosh down the drain anyway)

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or perhaps flat pack coffins

the guy that can do a funeral for £400 instead of £4000, is going to make to a lot of money.........

ihad a similar idea buy a bit of land offer eco friendly funerals cardboard/plywood coffins plant a tree etc, you would not believe the red tape involved planning etc

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The question that nobody seems to be able to answer is "Whos is buying these houses from the "owners of better houses" that you describe." and for top valuations as well.

It defiantely is not the mewed out NR chav buyers.

what's your guess ?

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I am getting close to the end of my rental agreement. I have found a much better home to live in than my current home for the same amount of money for the next two years and have explicitly excluded the possbility of buying a house in the next two years.

I had a removals man over this afternoon. After he looked at my "stuff", we had a little chat about his world.

The thing that I found most interesting is that his storage space is now full and he has sub-contracted additional space.

His clients are selling and downsizing and need somewhere to store their extra "stuff". Many of them have chosen to rent rather than buy for the next few years and are waiting to see how things unfold.

His story confirms a few things for me :

- The owners of better houses are selling them as they understand that this little bounce in the market is transitory.

- Even though they have a lot of equity in their houses, they are in no rush to "put it to work".

- The demographics that he has described confirm the common belief on this site that older people own better houses. The astute ones are selling now and waiting.

- Individual behaviour is disconnected from what we read in the mainstream media. Older, relatively wealthy people are taking advantage of the current market; probably to the detriment of younger, less astute people who do not understand how markets work.

The property game is over. Once the main beneficiaries of rising prices who control the inventory start to bail out, there is no rational outcome apart from lower prices despite everything that we have read in the papers lately.

See Boris Johnson on this topic:

Boris in the Torygraph

Boris good value as usual (well, when he's not being mayor, of course)

db

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It could also be caused by the flood of ppl returning home from Dubai et al (well those who didn't p'ss their dosh down the drain anyway)

I think there's a lot of truth in this. Here in the Netherlands walking around Wassenaar (The Beverly hills of the Netherlands they call it.) there's a huge number of properties for rent, for for sale. The expats have left. It's looking a little like a ghost town. In my companies case i'm about the only one left. (mostly US folks though.) They haven't lost their jobs they've just been posted back home.

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or perhaps flat pack coffins

the guy that can do a funeral for £400 instead of £4000, is going to make to a lot of money.........

Wy not have an e-funeral and get buried or scattered online?

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Get wisdom from whence you can, eh?

What made them wise? Learning from their mistakes, probably.

(Most people are not so good at listening.) The young will learn too.

The easy way (by listening and reading), or the hard way (thru mistakes)

Bring it on !

There is probably some luck involved but living through the mids 70s (for some of them), mid 80s and late 90s probably lets them play their hand better than those who have only seen good markets.

One of my theories about people's behaviour is that it is biased by the type of market that existed when they first became aware of markets.

I think that my children are lucky to have become aware of markets in a very fierce bear market. The lesson that prices can go down as well as up as well as the financial destruction that they have seen in some of their friends' families will make them financially cautious than they would have otherwise been for the rest of their lives.

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I had a chat with the removal men at work today, and they told me their domestic business has fallen off a cliff, but their office business (far more lucrative, apparently) has never been busier.

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