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Predictions (the Bigger Picture)

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With out going into too much detail what do you think will happen in the next few years?

These are my predictions

Shortterm (1-2 years)

1. Stagflation, big ticket items bought on credit get cheaper.

necessities increase in cost due to weaker currency

2. Interest rates remain low

3. Highly leveraged companies fail due to lack of lending.

4. Property market remains stalled ( no one wants to accept a paper loss )

5. Unemployment continues to rise (25% not impossible)

Longterm (2-10 years)

1. Massive inflation ( governments never pay off their debt, they inflate it away.)

2. Property to reach 2007 peaks in nominal terms (50% drop in real terms)

3. Sterling and Dollar take massive losses compared to Euro.

4. Benefits and Public sector pay to rise at levels well below inflation

5. People too afraid to strike due to massive unemployment.

6. Property Market recovers

BTW, I am not an economist, just trying to make sense and protect myself from whatever is around the corner

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just trying to make sense and protect myself from whatever is around the corner

Diversify investments, work hard, invest in yourself (human capital). Relax. Have fun (before the sky caves in :rolleyes: )

But that was always the plan for most of us anyway :)!

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Mostly agreed, but I do think property will fall a bit over the next couple of years (maybe 5% per year).

Also, does anyone see an impact of higher taxes on property etc?

Will the QE ever be reversed and what impact could that have?

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable

Short term: Probably a bit more rain

Long term: Accelerating contraction of the Universe.

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Short term: Probably a bit more rain

Long term: Accelerating contraction of the Universe.

Longer term: Comet impacts earth, wiping out the debt.

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Longer term:

World population continues to rise.

Fossil fuels get used up at an ever-increasing rate until they become scarce and prohibitively expensive.

Man-made CO2 levels go into decline as less fossil fuels are burned.

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With out going into too much detail what do you think will happen in the next few years?

These are my predictions

Shortterm (1-2 years)

1. Stagflation, big ticket items bought on credit get cheaper.

necessities increase in cost due to weaker currency

2. Interest rates remain low

3. Highly leveraged companies fail due to lack of lending.

4. Property market remains stalled ( no one wants to accept a paper loss )

5. Unemployment continues to rise (25% not impossible)

Longterm (2-10 years)

1. Massive inflation ( governments never pay off their debt, they inflate it away.)

2. Property to reach 2007 peaks in nominal terms (50% drop in real terms)

3. Sterling and Dollar take massive losses compared to Euro.

4. Benefits and Public sector pay to rise at levels well below inflation

5. People too afraid to strike due to massive unemployment.

6. Property Market recovers

BTW, I am not an economist, just trying to make sense and protect myself from whatever is around the corner

Genuinely interested. How do you think massive inflation will manifest itself? Inflation in the prices of goods and services together with wage inflation?

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Short term: We're screwed.

Long term: We're dead.

Hmph!

I was going to go with:-

Long-term: We're all dead

Short-term: Some of us are dead.

The rest is just mindless froth. ;)

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Genuinely interested. How do you think massive inflation will manifest itself? Inflation in the prices of goods and services together with wage inflation?

We're not going to get wage inflation, though the cost of everything else will rise.

- High and rising unemployment

- Immigration

- Outsourcing (IT being heavily affected but any service occupations could be hit)

– Some potentially savage job cuts in the public sector

– Lack of unions

Pay has actually deflated (unless you're a bankster or an MP) over the last decade.

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With out going into too much detail what do you think will happen in the next few years?

These are my predictions

Shortterm (1-2 years)

1. Stagflation, big ticket items bought on credit get cheaper.

necessities increase in cost due to weaker currency

2. Interest rates remain low

3. Highly leveraged companies fail due to lack of lending.

4. Property market remains stalled ( no one wants to accept a paper loss )

5. Unemployment continues to rise (25% not impossible)

Longterm (2-10 years)

1. Massive inflation ( governments never pay off their debt, they inflate it away.)

2. Property to reach 2007 peaks in nominal terms (50% drop in real terms)

3. Sterling and Dollar take massive losses compared to Euro.

4. Benefits and Public sector pay to rise at levels well below inflation

5. People too afraid to strike due to massive unemployment.

6. Property Market recovers

BTW, I am not an economist, just trying to make sense and protect myself from whatever is around the corner

Short term: not sure.

Long term: anyone's guess.

Life will however go on, you'll see.

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Genuinely interested. How do you think massive inflation will manifest itself? Inflation in the prices of goods and services together with wage inflation?

Goods and services will rise but I don't think wages will keep close to inflation ( real inflation not government manufactured figures). Public sector pay freezes which the private sector can use as an excuse to do the same. A lower standard of living for all but the very richest.

IMPO

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We're not going to get wage inflation, though the cost of everything else will rise.

- High and rising unemployment

- Immigration

- Outsourcing (IT being heavily affected but any service occupations could be hit)

– Some potentially savage job cuts in the public sector

– Lack of unions

Pay has actually deflated (unless you're a bankster or an MP) over the last decade.

+1

Got there before me

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Goods and services will rise but I don't think wages will keep close to inflation ( real inflation not government manufactured figures). Public sector pay freezes which the private sector can use as an excuse to do the same. A lower standard of living for all but the very richest.

IMPO

What, you mean we will all have to start living within our means and only borrow money that there is a high/good chance we are able pay back. ;):o

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With out going into too much detail what do you think will happen in the next few years?

These are my predictions

Shortterm (1-2 years)

1. Stagflation, big ticket items bought on credit get cheaper.

necessities increase in cost due to weaker currency

2. Interest rates remain low

3. Highly leveraged companies fail due to lack of lending.

4. Property market remains stalled ( no one wants to accept a paper loss )

5. Unemployment continues to rise (25% not impossible)

Longterm (2-10 years)

1. Massive inflation ( governments never pay off their debt, they inflate it away.)

2. Property to reach 2007 peaks in nominal terms (50% drop in real terms)

3. Sterling and Dollar take massive losses compared to Euro.

4. Benefits and Public sector pay to rise at levels well below inflation

5. People too afraid to strike due to massive unemployment.

6. Property Market recovers

Can I ask: How do house prices rise with mass unemployment and likely inflation running higher than wage inflation as an economic backdrop? Assuming people still need to finance their house purchase this doesn't make sense to me. How do unemployed people and people whose wages are devaluing get credit?

If you can answer how house prices can go up whilst unemployment rises (significantly) then you'll be doing the bulls on this site a favor as they can't answer the question.

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If you can answer how house prices can go up whilst unemployment rises (significantly) then you'll be doing the bulls on this site a favor as they can't answer the question.

Bull by name....bull is what they spout

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Can I ask: How do house prices rise with mass unemployment and likely inflation running higher than wage inflation as an economic backdrop? Assuming people still need to finance their house purchase this doesn't make sense to me. How do unemployed people and people whose wages are devaluing get credit?

If you can answer how house prices can go up whilst unemployment rises (significantly) then you'll be doing the bulls on this site a favor as they can't answer the question.

Exactly. I agree with the OP that we may see CPI and RPI go up, but house prices will never go up if wages don't rise, if anything they'll go down further because people will need to divert more of their income to food and energy.

Edited by HovelinHove

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Exactly. I agree with the OP that we may see CPI and RPI go up, but house prices will never go up if wages don't rise, if anything they'll go down further because people will need to divert more of their income to food and energy.

And they can no longer fund their lifestyles through MEW/credit cards.

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Can I ask: How do house prices rise with mass unemployment and likely inflation running higher than wage inflation as an economic backdrop? Assuming people still need to finance their house purchase this doesn't make sense to me. How do unemployed people and people whose wages are devaluing get credit?

If you can answer how house prices can go up whilst unemployment rises (significantly) then you'll be doing the bulls on this site a favor as they can't answer the question.

I don't expect to see this in the next 2 years or so but there is in principle a way.

Imagine 25% general inflation and wage inflation of 10%.

Even with high unemployment nominal house prices might increase, although real

house prices would be dropping.

If Quantitative Easing continues this could produce such high price inflation in 2 to 3 years.

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I don't expect to see this in the next 2 years or so but there is in principle a way.

Imagine 25% general inflation and wage inflation of 10%.

Even with high unemployment nominal house prices might increase, although real

house prices would be dropping.

If Quantitative Easing continues this could produce such high price inflation in 2 to 3 years.

That was what I was thinking, high inflation due to QE and lower wage inflation. Psychologically I cannot see the market functioning correctly until nominally the prices come closer to 2007 prices or you could wait 15-30 years untill those who bought in 2004-2007 with a 120% mortgages are out of NE.

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We're not going to get wage inflation, though the cost of everything else will rise.

- High and rising unemployment

- Immigration

- Outsourcing (IT being heavily affected but any service occupations could be hit)

– Some potentially savage job cuts in the public sector

– Lack of unions

Pay has actually deflated (unless you're a bankster or an MP) over the last decade.

So a continued crash in our standard of living brought about because monetary and fiscal policy has been specifically designed to prevent house prices from crashing back to fair value.

I feel all warm and cuddly towards those who have made this decision on my behalf against my wishes.

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