francis Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8185002.stm "So if I am right, why is the stock market rallying? It's because we are over the worst and prices had fallen too far but watch out for the second V of the "W" recession and another correction in October." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LuckyOne Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8185002.stm"So if I am right, why is the stock market rallying? It's because we are over the worst and prices had fallen too far but watch out for the second V of the "W" recession and another correction in October." The VIX options market is predicting a bumpy September according to Bloomberg. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aV6OGPHTAuH8 Some bits : Options traders are increasing bets that the steepest rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since the 1930s won’t survive September, historically the worst month for U.S. equities. Traders are betting the VIX, a gauge of expected stock swings, will increase 13 percent in the next five weeks, according to futures prices compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the biggest spread since August 2008, right before the S&P 500 suffered the steepest two-month plunge in 21 years. The indexes have moved in the opposite direction 81 percent of the time over the past five years, Bloomberg data show. ....................... “It’s a danger sign,†said Ronald Egalka, a 36-year options trader who oversees $8 billion as chief executive officer of Rampart Investment Management in Boston. “People expect volatility to pick up in the future, and that implies that there’s going to be a downward movement in the market.†History shows that U.S. investors lose the most in September. The benchmark index for American equities fell 1.3 percent on average since 1928 that month, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellie Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 What's the difference between a "W" shaped depression (or stock market, or housing market) and a bull trap? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LuckyOne Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 What's the difference between a "W" shaped depression (or stock market, or housing market) and a bull trap? It depends on where the three "tops" of the W are relative to each other as well as the "bottoms". A true depression will look like a sharply downward sloping W with the "middle" of the W being the bull trap. A recovery could look like an upward sloping W. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellie Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 It depends on where the three "tops" of the W are relative to each other as well as the "bottoms".A true depression will look like a sharply downward sloping W with the "middle" of the W being the bull trap. A recovery could look like an upward sloping W. OK. So it depends on the three tops. In that case I guess we won't know whether the market is currently in a bull trap or an unilikey "W" shaped recession until we see what happens after the second down dip in the autumn. My money's on the bull trap. Well it would be if I had any. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 OK. So it depends on the three tops. In that case I guess we won't know whether the market is currently in a bull trap or an unilikey "W" shaped recession until we see what happens after the second down dip in the autumn. My money's on the bull trap. Well it would be if I had any. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/bi...&mocktick=1 It's an upward slowing "W". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Time will tell. The treasury isn't banking on a W shaped recession though is it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 (edited) It depends on where the three "tops" of the W are relative to each other as well as the "bottoms".A true depression will look like a sharply downward sloping W with the "middle" of the W being the bull trap. A recovery could look like an upward sloping W. course it could be an M-shaped two bubbles scenario Edited August 10, 2009 by Bloo Loo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishman Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 OK. So it depends on the three tops. Why stop at three? The lines of the graph may continue and 'Reach Out' to make four tops. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Why stop at three?The lines of the graph may continue and 'Reach Out' to make four tops. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Could it be two Vs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loginandtonic Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 (edited) http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8185002.stm"So if I am right, why is the stock market rallying? It's because we are over the worst and prices had fallen too far but watch out for the second V of the "W" recession and another correction in October." didnt the stock market rally right into the dotcom burst, and every crash that constituted the dotcom crash? they just 'let the trend be my friend' trade much of the time, like a crowd rushing this way and that. ever got lost or into a traffic jam and followed the car in front's diversion? that kinda m.o. is what many share traders do Edited August 10, 2009 by loginandtonic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustYield Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Why stop at three?The lines of the graph may continue and 'Reach Out' to make four tops. Classic HPC, well played Sir! Now if you feel that you can't go on (can't go on) Because all of your hope is gone (all your hope is gone) And your life is filled with much confusion (much confusion) Until happiness is just an illusion (happiness is just an illusion) And your world around is crumbling down, darlin reach out come on girl reach on out for me reach out reach out for me I'll be there with a love that will shelter you I'll be there with a love that will see you through Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Could it be two Vs Ill have a vowel now please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Ill have a vowel now please. Whatever happened to Vorderman's bottom? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkey Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 (edited) i just think it cleaverly wording this as from "new paradigm" to Bull Trap then to return to normal is the first V then from Return to normal to despair to return ot the mean is the second V, its a W a bit lop sided but its there. and that is a classic asset bubble grpah, it just aldepends on where you start you could say it started from the "first sell off" stage and ended at return to normal, still a W all medai talk ad BullSH1T Edited August 10, 2009 by Monkey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 (edited) It depends on where the three "tops" of the W are relative to each other as well as the "bottoms".A true depression will look like a sharply downward sloping W with the "middle" of the W being the bull trap. A recovery could look like an upward sloping W. And it's b0llocks anyway -- this is a y shaped recession for sure --- i.e. it's going down - and there is NO upturn for generations, UNTIL and UNLESS property prices go back NOW to [maximum] 3 x real, non-liar annual income..... AND STAY THERE FOREVER..... Edited August 10, 2009 by eric pebble Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustYield Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Why stop at three?The lines of the graph may continue and 'Reach Out' to make four tops. Actually it may take five. Gotta get up to get down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishman Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Actually it may take five.Gotta get up to get down. We'll all be doing the 'Wall Street Shuffle' if it's get to ten, see, see ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Whatever happened to Vorderman's bottom? B shaped.....on its side Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blankster Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 If it's a W-shaped recession it wil probably be followed by an S-shaped recovery and then an M-shaped boom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normal Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 I'm still waiting for someone to get one of the charts to trace the curves of Vorderman's bottom.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Can we all start talking about a Z or Q shaped depression in the hope that some journo will pick up on it and write a story in the papers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needle Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Almost there, its 'M' shaped. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bendy Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 I thought it'd be more of a backward slash recession Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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