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francis

The City Sees A "w" Shaped Recession

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8185002.stm

"So if I am right, why is the stock market rallying? It's because we are over the worst and prices had fallen too far but watch out for the second V of the "W" recession and another correction in October."

The VIX options market is predicting a bumpy September according to Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aV6OGPHTAuH8

Some bits :

Options traders are increasing bets that the steepest rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since the 1930s won’t survive September, historically the worst month for U.S. equities.

Traders are betting the VIX, a gauge of expected stock swings, will increase 13 percent in the next five weeks, according to futures prices compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the biggest spread since August 2008, right before the S&P 500 suffered the steepest two-month plunge in 21 years. The indexes have moved in the opposite direction 81 percent of the time over the past five years, Bloomberg data show.

.......................

“It’s a danger sign,†said Ronald Egalka, a 36-year options trader who oversees $8 billion as chief executive officer of Rampart Investment Management in Boston. “People expect volatility to pick up in the future, and that implies that there’s going to be a downward movement in the market.â€

History shows that U.S. investors lose the most in September. The benchmark index for American equities fell 1.3 percent on average since 1928 that month, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

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What's the difference between a "W" shaped depression (or stock market, or housing market) and a bull trap?

It depends on where the three "tops" of the W are relative to each other as well as the "bottoms".

A true depression will look like a sharply downward sloping W with the "middle" of the W being the bull trap.

A recovery could look like an upward sloping W.

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It depends on where the three "tops" of the W are relative to each other as well as the "bottoms".

A true depression will look like a sharply downward sloping W with the "middle" of the W being the bull trap.

A recovery could look like an upward sloping W.

OK. So it depends on the three tops.

In that case I guess we won't know whether the market is currently in a bull trap or an unilikey "W" shaped recession until we see what happens after the second down dip in the autumn. My money's on the bull trap. Well it would be if I had any.

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OK. So it depends on the three tops.

In that case I guess we won't know whether the market is currently in a bull trap or an unilikey "W" shaped recession until we see what happens after the second down dip in the autumn. My money's on the bull trap. Well it would be if I had any.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/bi...&mocktick=1

It's an upward slowing "W".

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It depends on where the three "tops" of the W are relative to each other as well as the "bottoms".

A true depression will look like a sharply downward sloping W with the "middle" of the W being the bull trap.

A recovery could look like an upward sloping W.

course it could be an M-shaped two bubbles scenario

Edited by Bloo Loo

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8185002.stm

"So if I am right, why is the stock market rallying? It's because we are over the worst and prices had fallen too far but watch out for the second V of the "W" recession and another correction in October."

didnt the stock market rally right into the dotcom burst, and every crash that constituted the dotcom crash? they just 'let the trend be my friend' trade much of the time, like a crowd rushing this way and that. ever got lost or into a traffic jam and followed the car in front's diversion? that kinda m.o. is what many share traders do

Edited by loginandtonic

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Why stop at three?

The lines of the graph may continue and 'Reach Out' to make four tops.

Classic HPC, well played Sir!

Now if you feel that you can't go on (can't go on)

Because all of your hope is gone (all your hope is gone)

And your life is filled with much confusion (much confusion)

Until happiness is just an illusion (happiness is just an illusion)

And your world around is crumbling down, darlin

reach out come on girl reach on out for me

reach out reach out for me

I'll be there with a love that will shelter you

I'll be there with a love that will see you through

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i just think it cleaverly wording this

bubble-lifecycle.gif

as from "new paradigm" to Bull Trap then to return to normal is the first V then from Return to normal to despair to return ot the mean is the second V, its a W a bit lop sided but its there.

and that is a classic asset bubble grpah, it just aldepends on where you start

you could say it started from the "first sell off" stage and ended at return to normal, still a W

all medai talk ad BullSH1T

Edited by Monkey

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It depends on where the three "tops" of the W are relative to each other as well as the "bottoms".

A true depression will look like a sharply downward sloping W with the "middle" of the W being the bull trap.

A recovery could look like an upward sloping W.

And it's b0llocks anyway -- this is a y shaped recession for sure --- i.e. it's going down - and there is NO upturn for generations, UNTIL and UNLESS property prices go back NOW to [maximum] 3 x real, non-liar annual income.....

AND STAY THERE FOREVER.....

Edited by eric pebble

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Why stop at three?

The lines of the graph may continue and 'Reach Out' to make four tops.

Actually it may take five.

Gotta get up to get down. :o

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Whatever happened to Vorderman's bottom?

B shaped.....on its side

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