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Hip to be bear

The Poo Will Hit The Fan...won't It?

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THe general concensus on this esteemed site is that the Autumn will be crunch time for the economy and the housing market, despite the VI led campaign to convince us that all is well and that we are over the worst.

If this is going to get messy, what is going to be the tipping point that pushes UK PLC over the edge?

THe inflation / deflation debate has raged on here.

Daddy Bear would have you believe that bond market failure followed by a dash for assets and a hyper inflationary holocaust is just around the corner.

The FTSE and DOW seem to have lost all sense of reality.

Dr Bubb is convinced that Uranus and a full moon are about to collide.

The QE project is still keeping all the plates spinning despite the fundementals chopping off the spinners hands one by one.

You may have others that you might like to mention on this thread.

My gut feeling is that in the absence of another 9/11 type event, it could be the forthcoming swine flu pandemic that will cause another Winter of Discontent and more besides.

My money is tentatively on the arrival of cooler, wetter weather coinciding with schools and colleges returning for the new term in September, bringing with it the usual round of infections and illnesses etc. Kids come home and infect their parents, who struggle in to work and infect their colleagues. Suddenly the pandemic becomes a very real drag on an already stressed economy.

THe green shoots will wither under a deluge of porcine snot.

Thats what I think MAY happen....and you?

Edited to add that this thread goes wildly off track and turns into a bit of a late night music fest......apologies......but if you want to stick with it, please do. Has anyone got a berocca?

Edited by Hip to be bear

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I can see this stall in house price falls lasting for a while longer. Then rising reposessions might make the housing market start falling again.

As for something to really get them dropping again, well I'm waiting for a rate rise to do that.

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THe general concensus on this esteemed site is that the Autumn will be crunch time for the economy and the housing market, despite the VI led campaign to convince us that all is well and that we are over the worst.

If this is going to get messy, what is going to be the tipping point that pushes UK PLC over the edge?

THe inflation / deflation debate has raged on here.

Daddy Bear would have you believe that bond market failure followed by a dash for assets and a hyper inflationary holocaust is just around the corner.

The FTSE and DOW seem to have lost all sense of reality.

Dr Bubb is convinced that Uranus and a full moon are about to collide.

The QE project is still keeping all the plates spinning despite the fundementals chopping off the spinners hands one by one.

You may have others that you might like to mention on this thread.

My gut feeling is that in the absence of another 9/11 type event, it could be the forthcoming swine flu pandemic that will cause another Winter of Discontent and more besides.

My money is tentatively on the arrival of cooler, wetter weather coinciding with schools and colleges returning for the new term in September, bringing with it the usual round of infections and illnesses etc. Kids come home and infect their parents, who struggle in to work and infect their colleagues. Suddenly the pandemic becomes a very real drag on an already stressed economy.

THe green shoots will wither under a deluge of porcine snot.

Thats what I think MAY happen....and you?

Yep, all that stuff. Plus the commercial real estate bubble has just started to burst in the US and the Option ARM/Alt-A resets are on the way.

I'm particulary interested in the coming US treasury auctions. China didn't turn up for the 3 and 5 year auctions two weeks ago. Ominous.

We are also starting to see the beginnings of civil unrest at the town hall meetings in the US.

Swine flu could do a hell of a lot of damage to the economy if it intensifies in the winter.

The list is endless.......None of it good.

Edited by MOP

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House price falls to start when reposessions occur due to high unemployment leading to forced sales.

That or base rate increases will send more faeces THTF.

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Humbug, I'm not one for sudden disasters, the most poo we're going to get is more job losses and more house price slides, possibly with some form of currency crisis

It's been pretty f*cked up in Iceland but as far as I can tell they haven't yet regressed overnight into a third world country or anything

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I can see this stall in house price falls lasting for a while longer. Then rising reposessions might make the housing market start falling again.

As for something to really get them dropping again, well I'm waiting for a rate rise to do that.

Should have mentioned rate rises.....IMO they are the obvious response to things picking up....inflation (via commodities spike etc) or things falling apart... bond market failure / IMF / currency collapse, but I see these on a further horizon.

THe UK housing market is so stupid it will take cold hard brutal IR rises to make the difference (like in 81 and 91).

What is going to make a difference in the next 3 months????

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TO suggest a direction for this thread........ (Ijin, please note)......What is going to make it go tits up by February? That seems to be the concensus... Why?

No idea. :)

The real fun starts when the pensions/benefits stop or are paid and are worthless.

Not quite yet, but it's in the post.

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Should have mentioned rate rises.....IMO they are the obvious response to things picking up....inflation (via commodities spike etc) or things falling apart... bond market failure / IMF / currency collapse, but I see these on a further horizon.

THe UK housing market is so stupid it will take cold hard brutal IR rises to make the difference (like in 81 and 91).

What is going to make a difference in the next 3 months????

Next three months? That's why I'm worried we won't have much downward action. All I can see is possesions picking up.

BTLers aren't stuffed because of low interest rates. Lots of accidental landlords. Low supply of housing, because only those that have to are selling, and there's enough people qualified and with decent size deposits, or generous parents who think they are snapping up a bargain.

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No idea. :)

The real fun starts when the pensions/benefits stop or are paid and are worthless.

Not quite yet, but it's in the post.

Surely that is a long, long term game that they can play out for years and years.

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Should have mentioned rate rises.....IMO they are the obvious response to things picking up....inflation (via commodities spike etc) or things falling apart... bond market failure / IMF / currency collapse, but I see these on a further horizon.

THe UK housing market is so stupid it will take cold hard brutal IR rises to make the difference (like in 81 and 91).

What is going to make a difference in the next 3 months????

There is now a suggestion that the US may raise rates in Jan.

CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Bolstered by a better-than-expected jobs report, U.S. interest rate futures markets Friday projected the Federal Reserve will begin raising its key short-term federal-funds rate late this year or early in 2010.

Futures prices for short- and long-term rates fell sharply, equating to expectations for higher rates, in reaction to data showing a milder-than-expected decline in nonfarm payrolls last month.

The Labor Department said the economy lost 247,000 jobs in July from a 443,000 drop in June. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires anticipated a 275,000 July job loss. Also, the July unemployment rate fell to 9.4%, from 9.5% in June, the first time the rate has fallen since April 2008.

As a result of the data, the February 2010 fed-funds futures contract was fully priced for the Federal Open Market Committee to increase the funds rate to 0.5% at its late-January meeting, from the current historically low range of 0% to 0.25%.

Just prior to the data, the same contract priced in about an 84% chance for a 0.5% rate.

The shorter-dated December fed-funds contract had priced in as much as a 50% chance that the Fed would initiate an inflation-fighting tightening campaign as soon as the meeting in mid-December. Recently, the December contract priced in about 38% chance, up from about a 30% chance as priced in just before the data release, then priced in about a 100% chance a little more than an hour after the data came in.

Prices plunged for Eurodollar futures, another measurement of short-term rate expectations. Quarterly 2010-2011 contracts were recently about 20 basis points lower, reflecting the view that the London Interbank Offered Rate will move substantially higher during the next couple of years.

Eurodollar futures are tied to settlement expectations for the three-month dollar-denominated Libor, which typically moves in the same direction as the competing U.S. funds rate.

Meantime, contracts tied to long-term Treasury futures were sharply lower after Friday's jobs report, equating to expectations for higher long-term rates.

Prices for September 10-year Treasury notes and 30-year Treasury bonds fell to 1 1/2-month lows. Treasury contracts were also under pressure ahead of next week's record high $75 billion quarterly refunding of the government's massive debt.

There's concern among traders whether there will be sufficient investor demand for the cash Treasury securities up for sale next week.

-By Howard Packowitz, Dow Jones Newswires; (312) 750-4132; howard.packowitz@dowjones.com

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=A3...b3kWTJOsA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 07, 2009 09:54 ET (13:54 GMT)

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Next three months? That's why I'm worried we won't have much downward action. All I can see is possesions picking up.

BTLers aren't stuffed because of low interest rates. Lots of accidental landlords. Low supply of housing, because only those that have to are selling, and there's enough people qualified and with decent size deposits, or generous parents who think they are snapping up a bargain.

You are focussing on housing...I'm talking about the UK economy......leading to HPC.

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No idea. :)

The real fun starts when the pensions/benefits stop or are paid and are worthless.

Not quite yet, but it's in the post.

Isn't that why ponzi schemes take ages to unravel.....they can go on for so long...years....Ours pension ponzi scheme has years in it.

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"Nothing ever happens,

Nothing happens at all,

The needle returns to the start of the song,

and we all sing along like before"

Up the rams... good call, intentional or not:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pu4p-pWkP1A

I am supplying to sound track to this thread now if you want to play. Suggestions please. Juke box by Youtube!

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You are focussing on housing...I'm talking about the UK economy......leading to HPC.

But that is fookedmondo already. Didn't think we had any spring bounce in that. Economy shedding jobs by the truck loads, GDP and tax revenues down.

Your next tune will be a 'cracker' from the mid 80's.

Gordon is using his QE sledgehammer to crack this nut!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqyc37aOqT0...3C6&index=0

Just don't post any more late Metallica. :rolleyes:

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But that is fookedmondo already. Didn't think we had any spring bounce in that. Economy shedding jobs by the truck loads, GDP and tax revenues down.

Just don't post any more late Metallica. :rolleyes:

That was purely for MOP.

More Peter Gabriel?

I would love to have seen this live.... showing my age!

Seriously, this live vid is worth dragging yourself away from HPC for.

If you hate my tunes, post your own links along with your pithy responses to this thread.

Edited by Hip to be bear

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