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Barcap Calls The Bull Trap

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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/story/com...92-50E1435E09DB

Recession is over in U.S., Germany, Barclays

By Polya Lesova NEW YORK

(MarketWatch) -- Barclays Capital said Friday that the global recession is over, with the United States and Germany joining the group of countries that have recently emerged from the recession. "We expect June to have been the last month of the U.S. recession and April to have been the last month in the German recession, making it the deepest and longest in the post-war era for both countries," wrote Christian Broda, head of international economic research at Barclays, in a note to clients on Friday. "In short, we have grown in confidence that the rebound that started in Asia early in the year has now become a truly global rebound." The recovery is sustainable into 2010, as large policy supports remain in the pipelines and should help dampen the negative wealth effects that are burdening the global consumer, according to Barclays.

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http://www.cnbc.com/id/32334381

Bull Market Won't Last: Pimco's El-Erian

Published: Friday, 7 Aug 2009 | 4:14 PM ET Text Size By: Reuters

Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive of bond fund manager Pacific Investment Management Co, said Friday that U.S. stock markets are on a "prolonged sugar high" and that the bull market is unlikely to last.

"If we are in a bull market in stocks, it is unlikely to last," El-Erian told Reuters as the Dow Jones industrial average and Standard & Poor's 500 each gained 1.50 percent. "I think what we are seeing is just a prolonged sugar high for now," he added.

.../

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Would this be a good time to put all my money in shares then? :unsure:

Golden Sacks are desperately hoping you are going to put all your money in shares, lol.

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Would this be a good time to put all my money in shares then? :unsure:

If you're a betting man and you can afford to lose half, yes - go for it!

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Correct me if i'm wrong, but a recession is declared over if we get a single quarter of rising GDP, even if that is followed by a subsequent falling quarter?

So all they have to do is replace consumer spending with government stimulus spending to pump up the GDP figure enough to get at least one positive blip of GDP and job done. Recession over, according to the official definition of a recession.

What fu*king joke this is getting to be.

Edited by MOP

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Correct me if i'm wrong, but a recession is declared over if we get a single quarter of rising GDP, even if that is followed by a subsequent falling quarter?

So all they have to do is replace consumer spending with government stimulus spending to pump up the GDP figure enough to get a positive blip of GDP and job done. Recession over according to the official definition of a recession.

What fu*king joke this is getting to be.

Correct! Then we could be right back into ANOTHER recession, next year. Miraculously. But at least THIS recession will have come to an end.

What more do you want FFS?

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Actually, I think the author may have been going for this:

alien_kane_with_creature_attached_helmet_john_hurt.jpg

It's the "blood funnel" thing. Like it's a creature trying to steal oxygen.

Edit: Or just keep its host alive long enough to gestate.

Edited by AvidFan

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An insult the thousands of american loosing their jobs. I hope they march on Barcap and Squiddie and have a pitch fork moment!

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable

Does this mean I should buy a house now?

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Yes a pottery cottage with a waterwheel at the side, part of a collectable set advertised in a news of the world supplement.

You could generate electricity with the waterwheel and feed it back into the grid

Eco Friendly!

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Correct! Then we could be right back into ANOTHER recession, next year. Miraculously. But at least THIS recession will have come to an end.

What more do you want FFS?

Indeed, but the key thing would be keeping recession 2 away from the door until the election. If Gordon can use the money flood to get a +ve GDP figure soon he can then officially declare recession 1 as being over and say "I've saved the world" leading into the election. He would then have to keep the GDP plate spinning until the second recession is declared after the election.

Genius.

Edited by MOP

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Does this mean I should buy a house now?

house_prices.JPG

You see that little bit I've pointed to with a red arrow? You are here. That ledge is 6-12 months wide in time terms.

I know what you're thinking, punk. You're thinking "did he fire six QE shots or only five?" Now to tell you the truth I forgot myself in all this excitement. But being this is a 44 trillion dollar global stimulus, the most powerful in the world and will blow your shorts clean away, you've gotta ask yourself a question: "Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya, punk?

post-2575-1249679334_thumb.jpg

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house_prices.JPG

You see that little bit I've pointed to with a red arrow? You are here. That ledge is 6-12 months wide in time terms.

I know what you're thinking, punk. You're thinking "did he fire six QE shots or only five?" Now to tell you the truth I forgot myself in all this excitement. But being this is a 44 trillion dollar global stimulus, the most powerful in the world and will blow your shorts clean away, you've gotta ask yourself a question: "Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya, punk?

:lol::lol::lol:

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Correct me if i'm wrong, but a recession is declared over if we get a single quarter of rising GDP, even if that is followed by a subsequent falling quarter?

So all they have to do is replace consumer spending with government stimulus spending to pump up the GDP figure enough to get at least one positive blip of GDP and job done. Recession over, according to the official definition of a recession.

What fu*king joke this is getting to be.

The single most (in fact the only) interesting thing I learned about GDP ('cause how they measure and calculate it is impossible to decipher) was that it includes government spending. Once you grasp that, alles ist Klar.

Edited by For no one

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Indeed, but the key thing would be keeping recession 2 away from the door until the election. If Gordon can use the money flood to get a +ve GDP figure soon he can then officially declare recession 1 as being over and say "I've saved the world" leading into the election. He would then have to keep the GDP plate spinning until the second recession is declared after the election.

Genius.

You're getting good at this MOP. :P

I know what you're thinking, punk. You're thinking "did he fire six QE shots or only five?" Now to tell you the truth I forgot myself in all this excitement. But being this is a 44 trillion dollar global stimulus, the most powerful in the world and will blow your shorts clean away, you've gotta ask yourself a question: "Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya, punk?

Perfectly brilliant. I knew there was a reason I came here.

Edited by For no one

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The single most (in fact the only) interesting thing I learned about GDP ('cause how they measure and calculate it is impossible to decipher) was that it includes government spending. Once you grasp that, alles ist Klar.

Exactly. Have you noticed them saying things like "Even when the recession is over, it won't feel like it". They are saying this because the GDP figure will be pumped up artificially so that they can declare an official end to the recession, even though the real economy will still be in the toilet. They are probably hoping all these tricks might bring confidence back to the high street and keep the bond markets happy etc but I don't think it will fool anyone in the end.

The fundamentals will win.

Edited by MOP

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