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Guest Steve Cook
When I read this I thought of famine, war, and social breakdown.

The Oil Drum

Welcome to the future.

This article exactly encapsulates where we are at this moment and where we are headed. I urge anyone on here to read it. My own feeling is that it is already too late to mount a societal-level, organised repsonse and the even if it was possible, that our leaders would take that option is even less likely.

All any of us can do is to try and form like-minded communities and get as off-grid as possible. As the decades pass we will need to be preapred to fight to hold onto what security we have managed to create for ourselves.

There are going to be a lot of hungry and cold humans.

Edited by Steve Cook

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Welcome to the future.

This article exactly encapsulates where we are at this moment and where we are headed. I urge anyone on here to read it. My own feeling is that it is already too late to mount a societal-level, organised repsonse and the even if it was possible, that our leaders would take that option is even less likely.

All any of us can do is to try and form like-minded communities and get as off-grid as possible. As the decades pass we will need to be preapred to fight to hold onto what security we have managed to create for ourselves.

There are going to be a lot of hungry and cold humans.

There already are cold, hungry humans. Billions of them.

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And it looks like it's gonna be a hell of a bumpy ride getting there....

"The argument goes as follows. As oil becomes scarce, its price will rise until it begins to undermine economic activity in general. Economic contraction will then result in substantially reduced demand for oil, which will in turn cause its price to fall temporarily. Then one of two things will happen: either (a) the economy will begin to recover, stoking renewed oil demand, leading again to high prices which will again undermine economic activity; or (B), if the economy does not quickly recover, petroleum production will gradually fall due to depletion until spare production capacity (created by lower demand) is wiped out, leading again to higher prices and even more economic contraction. In both cases, oil prices remain volatile and the economy contracts."

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Are you wearing your Tinfoil hats today?

No bloody way. Did you know the NSA have perfected the art of implanting micro-rfid devices into foil? They are activated by the barcode reader at checkout. No way I'm wrapping that round my head.

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When I read this I thought of famine, war, and social breakdown.

The Oil Drum

My immediate future will be slightly prettier once restore and hibernate in Jaunty Jackalope (Ubnutu 9.04) gets sorted.

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Guest Steve Cook
There already are cold, hungry humans. Billions of them.

Yes, indeed there are and I would not wish to diminish that.

However, they are soon to be no longer far, far way and look different to us. They are going to be our neighbours. They are going to be us.

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Yes, indeed there are and I would not wish to diminish that.

However, they are soon to be no longer far, far way and look different to us. They are going to be our neighbours. They are going to be us.

You mean when we retire?

Because this country is already full of cold and hungry people, thousands of them die from cold every year

They are call Old Age Pensioners.

And this is nothing to do with a lack of resources, it is because no one cares.

Perhaps some of the millions of pounds we donate to Africa and ends up feeding private armies or in Swiss Bank accounts should be diverted to people who look the same as us and are our neighbours?

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Welcome to the future.

This article exactly encapsulates where we are at this moment and where we are headed. I urge anyone on here to read it. My own feeling is that it is already too late to mount a societal-level, organised repsonse and the even if it was possible, that our leaders would take that option is even less likely.

All any of us can do is to try and form like-minded communities and get as off-grid as possible. As the decades pass we will need to be preapred to fight to hold onto what security we have managed to create for ourselves.

There are going to be a lot of hungry and cold humans.

For as long as I can remember, there have been telling us about how bad things are going to be. All of it turned out to be entertaining, but pants.

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And it looks like it's gonna be a hell of a bumpy ride getting there....

"The argument goes as follows. As oil becomes scarce, its price will rise until it begins to undermine economic activity in general. Economic contraction will then result in substantially reduced demand for oil, which will in turn cause its price to fall temporarily. Then one of two things will happen: either (a) the economy will begin to recover, stoking renewed oil demand, leading again to high prices which will again undermine economic activity; or (B), if the economy does not quickly recover, petroleum production will gradually fall due to depletion until spare production capacity (created by lower demand) is wiped out, leading again to higher prices and even more economic contraction. In both cases, oil prices remain volatile and the economy contracts."

That's assuming we don't find a replacement energy first?. I see it as a race against time. We could build two global solar arrays (North Africa and Australia?) to offset a large proportion of our reliance on oil, and that would buy time to deal with combustion engines.

I guess that there isn't the political will/drive at present, but that will soon change once the situation gets dire enough.

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For as long as I can remember, there have been telling us about how bad things are going to be. All of it turned out to be entertaining, but pants.

For as long as I can remember, there have been people running around with their fingers in their ears shouting "la la la - I'm not listening". It's entertaining, if slightly annoying, when the individual concerned is twelve.. unless you are twelve, in which case I apologise.

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In the end, no matter what governments or corporations do, it's human nature itself which will dictate the way. It might take centuries, but eventualy resources will be so depleted that mankind will have to force itself through a step-change. Getting there will be quite a hard ride though.

I was watching "the day the earth stood still" the other night, and despite it being a shit film, John Cleese hit the nail on the head. Only when we are in the deepest shit do we give our best and succeed.

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For as long as I can remember, there have been people running around with their fingers in their ears shouting "la la la - I'm not listening". It's entertaining, if slightly annoying, when the individual concerned is twelve.. unless you are twelve, in which case I apologise.

Or you could spend your entire life pissing your pants about something that may or may not happen and certainly not in your lifetime.

30 years ago I was told the oil would run out in 20 years and that we were going to have a mini ice age.

Now I am being told that in 20 years that the oil will run out and that we are going to have catastrophic global warming.

When you grow up you will have the benefit of being able to look back over your life and see how many times the experts were provide right and how many times you were lied to.

:rolleyes:

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You mean when we retire?

Because this country is already full of cold and hungry people, thousands of them die from cold every year

They are call Old Age Pensioners.

And this is nothing to do with a lack of resources, it is because no one cares.

Perhaps some of the millions of pounds we donate to Africa and ends up feeding private armies or in Swiss Bank accounts should be diverted to people who look the same as us and are our neighbours?

+1

well said.

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In the end, no matter what governments or corporations do, it's human nature itself which will dictate the way. It might take centuries, but eventualy resources will be so depleted that mankind will have to force itself through a step-change. Getting there will be quite a hard ride though.

World in miniature ??

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Easter_Island...f_the_ecosystem

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Year Zero

Pol Pot, leader of the Khmer Rouge, was achieving his dream of Year Zero, the return of Cambodia to a peasant economy in which there would be no class divisions, no money, no books, no schools, no hospitals. 'Reactionary religion' was banned in the constitution of January 1976.

skulls.jpg

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
Year Zero

Pol Pot, leader of the Khmer Rouge, was achieving his dream of Year Zero, the return of Cambodia to a peasant economy in which there would be no class divisions, no money, no books, no schools, no hospitals. 'Reactionary religion' was banned in the constitution of January 1976.

skulls.jpg

The Khmer Rouge had the right idea.

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Year Zero

Pol Pot, leader of the Khmer Rouge, was achieving his dream of Year Zero, the return of Cambodia to a peasant economy in which there would be no class divisions, no money, no books, no schools, no hospitals. 'Reactionary religion' was banned in the constitution of January 1976.

skulls.jpg

IC, destroy civilization, just so long as your supported have AK47 and ammo.

I think I see a flaw.

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Or you could spend your entire life pissing your pants about something that may or may not happen and certainly not in your lifetime.

30 years ago I was told the oil would run out in 20 years and that we were going to have a mini ice age.

Now I am being told that in 20 years that the oil will run out and that we are going to have catastrophic global warming.

When you grow up you will have the benefit of being able to look back over your life and see how many times the experts were provide right and how many times you were lied to.

:rolleyes:

Non sequitur on!

Presumably during the past 30 years you were told that one day you would die? The fact that it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean you were lied to or, indeed, that you are immortal.

Edited by sossij

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No bloody way. Did you know the NSA have perfected the art of implanting micro-rfid devices into foil? They are activated by the barcode reader at checkout. No way I'm wrapping that round my head.

:lol::lol::lol:

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Non sequitur on!

Presumably during the past 30 years you were told that one day you would die? The fact that it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean you were lied to or, indeed, that you are immortal.

No, but I won't die of Aids, CJD or swine flu.

I will probably die from a hospital acquired infection after some kind of minor operation.

Not sure what your point is really.

At some point in the future oil production will obviously peak, but if you think that civilisation will then end I think you are deluding yourself.

All that will happen is we will do things differently.

Stalin's Russia, Mao's China, Pol Pots Cambodia

Were these tragedies caused by Peak Oil?

No, they were caused by people who thought they knew better, forcing their utopian fantasies on ordinary people like myself.

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I spent some time a couple of years back looking into Peak oil (even registered a website ukpeakoil.co.uk, that's my old address in Balham if you WHOIS...) as I thought it warranted at least a bit of a read up, which of course it did / does....

Couple of things that I noticed while going through various books and sources(peakoil.com etc). Much like the current nonsense with global warming, too much emphasis and trust is put on the findings and views of scientists. There is nothing like a good end of the world story to get people all fired up as well, certain people are very passionate about doomsday events. This is why, no doubt, this posting will get several "oh but what about this, and that...." and "you're wrong, you so wrong, the end IS near"... I simply don't believe it is.

I know several people through my work who are involved in oil (not all VI's I should add), who believe the situation is changing as we speak. Some of them believe technology holds the key, others believe that a mixture of demand destruction and the open market will mean our transition will be relatively smooth.

I'm with them... I'll go on record right now and say it won't be anywhere near as bad as people think. We will refine and develop the refinery process, the barrel price will go up, and in 20 years time we will all still have a comparable standard of living to that which we enjoy at the moment.

Feel free to disagree, I have been wrong in the past... Might be wrong now.

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