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Timm

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Sorry about the messy post:

http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/FTHPI%20Inde...20July%2009.xls

FTHPI NEWS RELEASE 9:30 FRIDAY 7TH AUGUST 2009 England and Wales house price trends from Acadametrics

House prices in July rose by 0.1% The average price of all property transactions completed in England & Wales in July 2009 was 0.1% higher than in June. This is the second month in succession that we have seen positive growth in house prices, albeit at low levels. Prices are now 10.9% lower than a year ago On an annual basis, the average price of all completed transactions in England and Wales in July is 10.9% lower than a year ago. The trough in the house price decline, on an annual basis, was reached in April 2009 at minus 13.6%. Housing Transactions are on the increase The number of housing transactions has increased each month from a low of 27,000 in January 2009, to a figure of 47,000 in June 2009. In Q1 of this year the monthly average number of properties sold was 30,598; this is 63.4% lower than the average number of properties sold during the same three months for the period 2000…quot;2008. In Q2 of this year the monthly average number of properties sold was 41,971; this is 58.4% lower than the average number of properties sold during the same three months for the period 2000…quot;2008. Dr Peter Williams Chairman of Acadametrics said "The average house price continues just below the £200,000 mark and at £199,903 is now back to where it was in February 2006, that is more than 3 years ago.

"The monthly % change at 0.1% contrasts markedly with the -2.2% in November 2008, and the data do suggest that the sharpest falls are behind us and that the rate of decline has now slowed significantly, even if it is too early to talk of a prolonged reversal."

House Price

Index

Monthly Change %

Annual Change %

July 2008

£224,232

228.3

-1.5

-0.6

January 2009

£203,837

207.5

-0.8

-11.7

February

£202,310

206.0

-0.7

-12.7

March

£200,653

204.3

-0.8

-13.2

April

£199,482

203.1

-0.6

-13.6

May

£199,455

203.1

0.0

-13.1

June

£199,611

203.2

0.1

-12.3

July

£199,903

203.5

0.1

-10.9

Dr Peter Williams, Chairman of Acadametrics, comments,

"The average price of a home in England & Wales is now £199,903, and is now down £31,921 from its peak in February 2008 at £231,824. However, for the first time over the last 3 months, we have seen a period of monthly growth. "Whilst some commentators believe otherwise, this does suggest that we might be nearing the bottom of the trough. Indeed, the evidence from the FTHPI is that the past monthly falls have not been maintained and the rate at which prices have been declining has slowed, such that we are seeing gains. "FTHPI is in line with other indices, taking into account the different bases used and the point in the process at which the price is measured. The FT index is based on all completed sales in England and Wales. It is not based upon a sample and is based on the price actually achieved. Estate agent indices are based on the asking price of the seller, at the time the property is first put on the market, and thus reflect sellers’ aspirations, rather than the price achieved, with many a seller subsequently lowering the price in order to find a buyer. The opposite may well now be occurring in areas in which supply is not meeting demand. The lenders’ indices are based on property valuations at the time a loan is granted to the borrower and, again, may not reflect the final figure agreed between buyer and seller. Their results may be affected by the much reduced levels of activity. "Overall, the evidence suggests that the market is ‘bottoming out’. However, the price gains achieved in completed transactions, as reflected in FTHPI, are very small and the potential for further reductions remains, not least because of the acute under-supply of mortgages. Going forward, this could comprise a serious continuing downward pressure on the market. Furthermore, whilst there is a degree of optimism in the air regarding the economy and the housing market at present, we know unemployment will continue to rise, that the public expenditure which has helped underpin the market will be more limited going forward and that interest rates will almost certainly rise in late 2010. These factors along with continued shortages in mortgage finance may restrain or even reverse the recovery."

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The good, as in wise, bits;

"Overall, the evidence suggests that the market is ‘bottoming out’. However, the price gains achieved in completed transactions, as reflected in FTHPI, are very small and the potential for further reductions remains, not least because of the acute under-supply of mortgages.

Going forward, this could comprise a serious continuing downward pressure on the market.

Furthermore, whilst there is a degree of optimism in the air regarding the economy and the housing market at present, we know unemployment will continue to rise, that the public expenditure which has helped underpin the market will be more limited going forward and that interest rates will almost certainly rise in late 2010. These factors along with continued shortages in mortgage finance may restrain or even reverse the recovery."

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There isn't an undersupply of mortgages.

It's just that the mortgages that people are being offered are much less than the sellers of the houses would like.

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