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Willy Weasel

Black Friday

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I know these threads pop up all the time but it feels to me that we might have a perfect storm today. The banking sector is now showing itself to be as fragile as we all knew it was (RBS here and Fannie Mae in US coming out with truly awful numbers); the blogosphere is rife with talk of the Fed being caught out monetizing US debt; the BoE has surprisingly announced it's extending QE; and as others have noted the recent rally follows frighteningly close to the path taken in the Great Depression before it one again lost 70% of its value.

It all hinges on today's jobs report in the US. If that comes in below expectations I think there could be a major sell-off.

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It all hinges on today's jobs report in the US. If that comes in below expectations I think there could be a major sell-off.

No, not really. Two days ago, ADP employment number pointed out that jobs were still lost below expectations in July. A slightly weaker than expected non-farm payrolls reading will constitute no news today.

Let's go for this instead: "The coming world Stock Market crash: August 14, 2009."

Linky here

:lol::lol:

A few days ago somebody had a thread on this.

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Guest Steve Cook
No, not really. Two days ago, ADP employment number pointed out that jobs were still lost below expectations in July. A slightly weaker than expected non-farm payrolls reading will constitute no news today.

Let's go for this instead: "The coming world Stock Market crash: August 14, 2009."

Linky here

:lol::lol:

A few days ago somebody had a thread on this.

You don't reckon that's Bubbs site do ya?... :lol:

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No, not really. Two days ago, ADP employment number pointed out that jobs were still lost below expectations in July. A slightly weaker than expected non-farm payrolls reading will constitute no news today.

We shall see. My take is that a worse than expected report coupled with the other news which is bad for sentiment could trigger a big sell-off especially as the recent rally has been on very thin volumes.

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the blogosphere is rife with talk of the Fed being caught out monetizing US debt

Surely this is public knowledge reported on the TV and in papers every day or have I missed something?Monetizing the debt is surely not a secret and if it is then why is it bad?

What does monetizing the debt mean in the blog world?

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That there be me.

I used to surf the Internet for images of famous actresses in bikinis but now I trawl it for financial news - I'll get my coat.

+1, actually Mrs Cavey was complaining that I spent too much time on here, so now when she asks what I’m looking at, I just say “naked chicksâ€.

…balance restored..

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No, not really. Two days ago, ADP employment number pointed out that jobs were still lost below expectations in July. A slightly weaker than expected non-farm payrolls reading will constitute no news today.

Let's go for this instead: "The coming world Stock Market crash: August 14, 2009."

Linky here

:lol::lol:

A few days ago somebody had a thread on this.

.....but I'm a Pisces and my horoscope for next week says I'll have a financial windfall !

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Surely this is public knowledge reported on the TV and in papers every day or have I missed something?Monetizing the debt is surely not a secret and if it is then why is it bad?

What does monetizing the debt mean in the blog world?

Sorry, the full story was that Zerohedge and Denninger had picked up on the fact that the Fed bought nearly half of the 7 year bonds sold at the last auction within 7 days of issue. The story behind this is that the Fed was attempting to cover up the fact that external demand for US debt had collapsed and after the effective failure of the 5 year auction they didn't want a bond crisis on their hands. Whether they want one or not, that is exactly what they are going to get.

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Sorry, the full story was that Zerohedge and Denninger had picked up on the fact that the Fed bought nearly half of the 7 year bonds sold at the last auction within 7 days of issue. The story behind this is that the Fed was attempting to cover up the fact that external demand for US debt had collapsed and after the effective failure of the 5 year auction they didn't want a bond crisis on their hands. Whether they want one or not, that is exactly what they are going to get.

Thanks for explaining that - that is indeed very interesting.

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Thanks for explaining that - that is indeed very interesting.

Don't expect to hear it on the MSM anytime soon though! :lol:

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+1, actually Mrs Cavey was complaining that I spent too much time on here, so now when she asks what I’m looking at, I just say “naked chicksâ€.

…balance restored..

Talking of chicks in bikinis in the news...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/artic...ite-bikini.html

Caution - don't look if you don't like Britney Spears and her new chunky thighs.

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the wizzle on the strizzle is that the US Jobs report is much much better than expected, poss even positive and there will be 200-300 point pump on the dow.

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the wizzle on the strizzle is that the US Jobs report is much much better than expected, poss even positive and there will be 200-300 point pump on the dow.

:rolleyes:

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We shall see. My take is that a worse than expected report coupled with the other news which is bad for sentiment could trigger a big sell-off especially as the recent rally has been on very thin volumes.

That's the puzzle - there has been a number of consistently bad macro news accross the board (the only silver shining being that contraction is not as bad as expected) yet markets have only gone up, and in some areas things have reached rather ridiculous valuations and could be described as "squeezed". It is thin out there, but clearly the market is technically not very well positioned for a massive drop. But today it looks fragile, agreed. Maybe no news (job losses confirmed) will be the news, especially if media spin it that way.

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the wizzle on the strizzle is that the US Jobs report is much much better than expected, poss even positive and there will be 200-300 point pump on the dow.

That will be from the :blink::blink::blink: category.... Normally, ADP employment number is a very good predictor, but glitches happen sometimes.

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Ok, so -247k vs -325k expected. Bad, but not as bad, so let's enjoy the whole process in slow motion :). Unemployment rate is more suprising - dropped to 9.4% from 9.5%, how is that done :blink: ?

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Black Friday? Perfect Storm?

The general synopsis at 0700:

Southeasterly or cyclonic 4 or 5, occasionally 6.

Slight or moderate.

Occasional rain, fog patches.

Moderate or good, occasionally very poor.

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Confounded's graph says it all.

This is the worst performance relative to the period before the problem started since the restructuring in the economy after WWII.

It also tells us that it takes roughly the same amount of time from peak to trough as it does to get back from trough to peak. Based on the graph, it doesn't look like we are even halfway through the problem so 2011 will be the best that we can hope for for an employment recovery to have taken place.

We all know that employment lags the real economy. I also think that house prices lag employment.

The bottom in the housing market that I thought would take place in 2010/2011 before QE now looks like it has been pushed forward to 2012/2013

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usjobs.jpg

It's interesting to see that the 3 previous recessions were the longest - each getting progressively longer. Does'nt bode well for this recession at all.

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Black Friday? Perfect Storm?

The general synopsis at 0700:

Southeasterly or cyclonic 4 or 5, occasionally 6.

Slight or moderate.

Occasional rain, fog patches.

Moderate or good, occasionally very poor.

I should explain this was today's forecast for the sea area VIking.

Edited by Dave Spart

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