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gruffydd

Can I Become A Bull Bear>?

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Can't quite face being categorised as a Bull, because I hate HPI and all the cheerleading spivs who welcome it.

But I expect to see house prices boom over the next year or so (hopefully not into 2011).

Can I become a Bull Bear? Is that more acceptable? :( Any chance of a new category>?)

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Try Neither? I've moved between all three states several time. It is nice being a bull, but I didn't get any hate for being a bull. Sod it, I'm changing back into a bull, i'm the same I expect prices to rise a little..

Edited by moosetea

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I'm now a Bull, but a nice one - so easy with the cattle prod!

ATTACK! :P

Edited by Young Goat

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I think that bull and bear markets sometimes coexist side by side. We saw that at the start of the downturn.

Forced sellers, turnover-hungry estate agents and hard-bargaining buyers drove prices down. But where you got a bullish seller and EA matched with a buyer who still believed they must buy before prices go up, that would put an upward pressure on prices.

Edited by blankster

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Hey grufydd, can you explain why and how re the HPI boomtimes are here again?

I would be interested to know your reasoning.

I think it's a temporary thing (unless the BoE and government has failed to learn anything from the economic crisis). The real economy does not support rising house prices. Artificially low IRs, insane levels of intervention and QE ($175 Billion QE - GULP! - and that's only for now...) and public ownership-government influence over the banks does - increasing demand and squeezing supply. I am seeing upswings in prices - large upswings in places - and many of my property contacts of yore are in fine fettle. Recruiting EAs again for the first time in god knows how long. Gazumping is back. I suspect the market will turn down again late 2010 - possibly not until 2011. In the meantime, I suspect prices will rise above their 2007 peaks.

Edited by gruffydd

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I think it's a temporary thing (unless the BoE and government has failed to learn anything from the economic crisis). The real economy does not support rising house prices. Artificially low IRs, insane levels of QE ($175 Billion - GULP! - and that's only for now...) and public ownership-government influence over the banks does - increasing demand and squeezing supply. I am seeing upswings in prices - large upswings in places - and many of my property contacts of yore are in fine fettle. Recruiting EAs again for the first time in god knows how long. Gazumping is back. I think the market will turn down again late 2010 - possibly not until 2011. In the meantime, I suspect prices will rise above 2007 peaks.

I don't really get it. Who's buying and with what money? How sustainable are you coterie is refuelling the entire UK housing market? What about job losses and the debt overhang?

There's no-one to lend to, the banks might get 'forced' to lend but at what rates. Are you expecting them to wilfully lend out at under priced risk levels again (i.e. willingly make a loss) when they have to keep the loan on their books? Anyhow the MBS phenomena is gooooone, no more buyers and those left are perhaps a bit more aware of what AAA rated means these days.

Are you basically intimating some sort of massive currency deval/massive surge in inflation? Sentiment is one thing but to have any legs you need a herd with cashflow.

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I don't really get it. Who's buying and with what money? How sustainable are you coterie is refuelling the entire UK housing market? What about job losses and the debt overhang?

There's no-one to lend to, the banks might get 'forced' to lend but at what rates. Are you expecting them to wilfully lend out at under priced risk levels again (i.e. willingly make a loss) when they have to keep the loan on their books? Anyhow the MBS phenomena is gooooone, no more buyers and those left are perhaps a bit more aware of what AAA rated means these days.

Are you basically intimating some sort of massive currency deval/massive surge in inflation? Sentiment is one thing but to have any legs you need a herd with cashflow.

I think our insolvent banks are already lending out at under-priced risk levels... As house price indices head north, risk will be further under-priced. Our governments are doing everything in their power to protect the banks and stimulate lending.

Who is buying? People who have held off, people who have STR, foreign crazies who think they're getting good value, BTL are entering the market again.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/7/1...on.-AMAZING...- Ho Ho

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1248415440.php

Edited by gruffydd

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I think it's a temporary thing (unless the BoE and government has failed to learn anything from the economic crisis). The real economy does not support rising house prices. Artificially low IRs, insane levels of intervention and QE ($175 Billion QE - GULP! - and that's only for now...) and public ownership-government influence over the banks does - increasing demand and squeezing supply. I am seeing upswings in prices - large upswings in places - and many of my property contacts of yore are in fine fettle. Recruiting EAs again for the first time in god knows how long. Gazumping is back. I suspect the market will turn down again late 2010 - possibly not until 2011. In the meantime, I suspect prices will rise above their 2007 peaks.

Crikey, that IS bullish! Can't see it at all for reasons clearly set out by DabHand. £125B of QE gets property to stop falling in price and makes shares head North in an obviously inflationary bubblish way. The bond market will kill of QE well before HPI can go seriously positive and the swing round in sentiment will make Autumn 2008 look like the aperitif before the main meal - rest assured.

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Can't quite face being categorised as a Bull, because I hate HPI and all the cheerleading spivs who welcome it.

But I expect to see house prices boom over the next year or so (hopefully not into 2011).

Can I become a Bull Bear? Is that more acceptable? :( Any chance of a new category>?)

A Bear or a Bull?

I have similar views. High property prices are terrible for society and a huge drain on Britain (and the world)'s potential. It imports consumption from the future, driving the good times now for the mother of all hangovers later. Never mind the immediate impact of financial stress on the young and those trading up. It's also an incredibly unfair transfer of wealth from the young to the old. All in all, it's a pile of ****. What makes it worse is that you're not allowed to complain. Groupthink writ large.

But.. That doesn't mean there will be a fundamental return to "business as usual". It doesn't have to be fair. If you're not in your last house you've been well and truly turned over. You may have to learn to live with it. The post WWII property owning meritocracy may be a blip. We may return to a stratified society in which merit is worthless. It might come down to family property. Not good, but historically proven as sustainable in the mid-long term.

We will find out which way it will go in the next 5-10 years. But the big guns are not on the side of meritocracy and fairness. Oh, and they own your tax dollars.

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Can't quite face being categorised as a Bull, because I hate HPI and all the cheerleading spivs who welcome it.

But I expect to see house prices boom over the next year or so (hopefully not into 2011).

Can I become a Bull Bear? Is that more acceptable? :( Any chance of a new category>?)

Would that make you a 'Bell' ?

;)

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I can see what you are thinking Gruffy, and certainly in London and the southeast it seems to back up your thoughts. Anything half decent in a sensible location is being snapped up; the prices seem to be lower than the insanity of 2007 but not by much. As in all recessions tat or stuff in "up-coming" areas is sticking. Flight to quality, I suppose.

My friend in the residential property game is busy as well - she had to cancel our last drink due to work. However a couple of people I know in commercial newbuild say its dead, and predict it will be for another 2 - 3 years, and also predict that most of the new skyscrapers that have planning permission in the City will never be built.

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I can see what you are thinking Gruffy, and certainly in London and the southeast it seems to back up your thoughts. Anything half decent in a sensible location is being snapped up; the prices seem to be lower than the insanity of 2007 but not by much. As in all recessions tat or stuff in "up-coming" areas is sticking. Flight to quality, I suppose.

My friend in the residential property game is busy as well - she had to cancel our last drink due to work. However a couple of people I know in commercial newbuild say its dead, and predict it will be for another 2 - 3 years, and also predict that most of the new skyscrapers that have planning permission in the City will never be built.

I agree - I sure am still a bear on commercial property.

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I'm starting to think like gruffydd but I don't see prices reaching 2007 levels.

What I do see is price rises continuing on until around Aug/Sep 2010.

Excessive QE and 0.5% base rate are having the desired effects for the bulls.

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Im thinking......no, its a bull trap....the very thing that thrives by the very thoughts the waverers are having.

its human psychology at work....the bull trap is ALWAYS present after a bubble burst, it ALWAYS is there for the SAME reasons, the same reasons we are seein it occur now.

all these waverers are PROOF of the reality.

Me, Im out of the market till next APril, got my eyes on a camper and early retirement on bread and pizza.

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A Bear or a Bull?

I have similar views. High property prices are terrible for society and a huge drain on Britain (and the world)'s potential. It imports consumption from the future, driving the good times now for the mother of all hangovers later. Never mind the immediate impact of financial stress on the young and those trading up. It's also an incredibly unfair transfer of wealth from the young to the old. All in all, it's a pile of ****. What makes it worse is that you're not allowed to complain. Groupthink writ large.

But.. That doesn't mean there will be a fundamental return to "business as usual". It doesn't have to be fair. If you're not in your last house you've been well and truly turned over. You may have to learn to live with it. The post WWII property owning meritocracy may be a blip. We may return to a stratified society in which merit is worthless. It might come down to family property. Not good, but historically proven as sustainable in the mid-long term.

We will find out which way it will go in the next 5-10 years. But the big guns are not on the side of meritocracy and fairness. Oh, and they own your tax dollars.

Very well put. I'm (reluctantly) considering becoming a bull. All this printy-printy QE stuff is very dangerous. The forces in charge seem intent on continuing this until they're absolutely sure the economy is growing again. And by that point it's too late to avoid major inflationary pressures. So I can see a mini-boom arising (until interest rates have to rise, but the govt may be able to delay this for 21 months). Looking grim.

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Very well put. I'm (reluctantly) considering becoming a bull. All this printy-printy QE stuff is very dangerous. The forces in charge seem intent on continuing this until they're absolutely sure the economy is growing again. And by that point it's too late to avoid major inflationary pressures. So I can see a mini-boom arising (until interest rates have to rise, but the govt may be able to delay this for 21 months). Looking grim.

Ok, so the end result is drastic action and interest rate rises....what then your house price?

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Ok, so the end result is drastic action and interest rate rises....what then your house price?

QE doesn't neccesarily end in high interest rates. It might not cause broad-based inflation (as measured by the ministry of numbers). Instead it might just inflate some assets, like house and share prices, redirecting monies from one part of society to another. This would be bad, but possible.

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QE doesn't neccesarily end in high interest rates. It might not cause broad-based inflation (as measured by the ministry of numbers). Instead it might just inflate some assets, like house and share prices, redirecting monies from one part of society to another. This would be bad, but possible.

I agree, the end result is far from guaranteed,

there was a very very very long thread about limited printing. some serious hackles were raised.

EDM was the originator. made some good points about the defaltion being so serious, that limited printing would fill the hole and no more.

my view is that regardless of the hole filling, the bust will take down house prices for some time yet. the banks seem to be creating a stock market bubble with their QE at the moment.

course if that IS the case, then when it bursts, all thats lost is the QE, and some suckers with real money.

THEN......the Feds will want their QE back....and thats going to have to come from REAL money.

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I think it's a temporary thing (unless the BoE and government has failed to learn anything from the economic crisis). The real economy does not support rising house prices. Artificially low IRs, insane levels of intervention and QE ($175 Billion QE - GULP! - and that's only for now...) and public ownership-government influence over the banks does - increasing demand and squeezing supply. I am seeing upswings in prices - large upswings in places - and many of my property contacts of yore are in fine fettle. Recruiting EAs again for the first time in god knows how long. Gazumping is back. I suspect the market will turn down again late 2010 - possibly not until 2011. In the meantime, I suspect prices will rise above their 2007 peaks.

I still don't get it. Prices of everyday houses / property are NOT rising because they are not being put on the market or being sold. Just look at transaction levels and you're bullishness doesn't make sense - at least not to me. I don't understand how anyone can form an opinion that prices are on the up (other than in the very short term) when nothing is selling. Before the market went t*ts up my street had approx 15 for sale signs. Now? I counted 1 last night (I am in London). This must be happening everywere and eventually there will be a tipping point because people can't simply stay where they are forever.

As BL said, surely your feelings are simply evidence the bull-trap effect is in full swing and therefore, at the very least, I'd have waited until November / December before making the change (let things work though a full cycle and not make a decision based on what we all knew would be a bounce of sorts).

Good luck though!

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Guest An Bearin Bui
As BL said, surely your feelings are simply evidence the bull-trap effect is in full swing and therefore, at the very least, I'd have waited until November / December before making the change (let things work though a full cycle and not make a decision based on what we all knew would be a bounce of sorts).

Good luck though!

This is the thing - a spring/summer bounce was inevitable after the absolute desert of activity that prevailed since November 2008. It was obvious that some cash buyers and nervous STRs were going to get back into the market at some point. And if you have the money, why not? They'll lose it slowly over the next few years as the air continues to leak out of the balloon.

Where I am, in Edinburgh, there is a regular spike in the market that happens every June/July before the market trends back down again. This was the case even in the crazy years of the bubble. Personally, I'm going to wait until the buying season is over and then see what happens in the Autumn. If we're still seeing price rises by November then I'd be more inclined to agree with your scenario of a pre-election temporary stabilisation engineered by Labour and QE. I can't see any boom to 2007 prices and beyond myself though - there just isn't the money out there.

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