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"no 'quick Return' To Housing Boom"

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No 'quick return' to housing boom

Surveyors believe there is little chance of a quick return to a housing boom despite a recent change in sentiment in the market.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said property prices could end the year higher than they started.

Previously, Rics had predicted a fall in the value of homes in the UK by 10-15% in 2009.

Despite more interest from buyers, tight credit, few transactions and job losses could see prices slip in 2010.

The outlook for the next year to 18 months remained "clouded", according to Rics senior economist Brigid O'Leary.

"The positive news we have seen has been a recovery from the record lows and there are still many uncertainties in the economy," she said.

Recent surveys from the UK's two main mortgage lenders, Halifax and Nationwide, have also suggested that house prices are rising.

New buyers

The proportion of surveyors reporting more inquiries from new buyers has been accelerating since last November, Rics said in its housing market update.

They were attracted by the rapid fall in prices, the stamp duty holiday and the lower cost of mortgages.

The number of mortgages approved for house purchases has grown in recent months, although the range of mortgages available has shrunk - with fewer providers in the market - and higher savings have been needed for potential homeowners to pay a deposit.

Yet transaction levels remained well below the long-term average, said Rics arguing that a "more orderly" market was still some way off.

Increases in mortgage rates, rising unemployment or a prolonged weakness in the economy could all challenge the emerging recovery in the market, the group said.

The number of homes being built had also been hit by the recession and this could also affect the affordability of homes in the future.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8185515.stm

The crash is off.

The crash is on.

The crash is off.

The crash is on.

History repeats itself :)

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I wouldn't bother listening to any of the talking heads. They've all made monkeys of themselves (with a few notable exceptions). Remember these are the same surveyors that said a two up, two down in a rough part of town was worth a gazzilion pounds.

Common sense and practical experience will guide you far more reliably.

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Quote from the BBC article:

"There is little chance of a quick return to a housing boom despite a recent change in sentiment in the market, surveyors believe.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said property prices could end the year higher than they started.

Rics had previously predicted a fall in the value of homes in the UK by 10-15% this year.

But, despite more buyer interest, tight credit, few transactions and job losses could see prices slip in 2010, it said.

The outlook for the next year to 18 months remained "clouded", according to Rics senior economist Brigid O'Leary.

"The positive news we have seen has been a recovery from the record lows and there are still many uncertainties in the economy," she said.

Recent surveys from the UK's two main mortgage lenders, Halifax and Nationwide, have also suggested that house prices are rising. "

FFS, what a pile of shite!!!!

RECORD LOWS.....since the peak of the biggest boom in history......How come prices still out of reach of FTBS at around 5x earnings can be described as record lows?????? Pathetic spin from some VI bint from RICS and tragic cocksucking journalism from the BBC.

Edited by Hip to be bear

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I'm enjoying the denial on here as much as you lot did when homeowners couldn't accept drops from 2007 prices.

It's going to be fantastic when the anger phase kicks in. :lol:

I have been surprised at the strength of the Spring bounce that we've had.

And I've been really surprised by the amount of property ramping that I've seen in the media the last few months - it just shows how dependent on ever-rising prices the whole UK economy has become!

However, I'm not expecting to see any further rises after August. And once taxes and interest rates start to go up, I'm expecting to see a return to significant monthly falls.

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It's going to be fantastic when the anger phase kicks in. :lol:

I'd also note that most people on hpc.com are in a permanent anger phase - surely you, of all people, have noticed that by now??

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guys, its going to start again in September/October...the financial and economic problems I mean.

Look, Interest rates were very low Jan-June, of course, the mugs and frightened cash holders went into the market...i mean, what other asset could they buy...they dont know of any other....

anyway, the "fundamentals" for the economy are poor. It is being "stimulated". however, we are facing tax rises, higher unemployment, and further financial problems in the form of defaults and company bankruptcies.

So we have the pressure on housing as above...BUT....INTEREST RATES rose sharply in July...so, the stock of cash buyers and the people who could get loans based on affordabliity are dwindling.

dont forget, the average loan was over 5 times the average salary in June.

that figure has risen sharply since March.

this means that many many more are already priced out again.

this is not over. there is a 15 year habit to be overcome.

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I'm enjoying the denial on here as much as you lot did when homeowners couldn't accept drops from 2007 prices.

It's going to be fantastic when the anger phase kicks in. :lol:

They'll keep preaching to themselves until prices come down again in 2020, then 'LOOK! LOOK! WE TOLD YOU SO!'

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There is too much real economy weakness for this to continue.

I would not get too excited until volumes improve.

That said, house prices will not collapse again, they'll go maybe 5-10% below the Feb lows and then grind higher slowly again.

All the VI chat should make it very clear to you all that pretty much the entire country is a VI now. Too much property p*rn has done that! GB can't ramp it by himself but he can with the help of the entire country...!

[yes, I have come up with ANOTHER reason to justify my long term positive stance in the face of a deteriorating economy :lol: ]

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It's all predictable.

Like picturing something as "slowing rate of decline" as something positive.

First officer :"Captain, the aircraft is now precipitating only at 10 metres per second, instead of 15 metres per second. "

Captain: "Yes but we'll still crash you ******ing idiot".

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I think a lot of HPC bears have become deluded by spending too much time on HPC! When you spend all day reading and submitting to a forum where the majority have the same opinion, and where posters who predict a different outcome are ridiculed, it is going to affect your sense of rationality. This is why people are going to be very dissapointed that they can't buy a house at 30-90% off 2007 prices (depending on your degree of optimism/doom mongery).

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I think a lot of HPC bears have become deluded by spending too much time on HPC! When you spend all day reading and submitting to a forum where the majority have the same opinion, and where posters who predict a different outcome are ridiculed, it is going to affect your sense of rationality. This is why people are going to be very dissapointed that they can't buy a house at 30-90% off 2007 prices (depending on your degree of optimism/doom mongery).

90% off. who said that...come on...own up.

i always say....follow the money....the future will be revealed.

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It's all predictable.

Like picturing something as "slowing rate of decline" as something positive.

First officer :"Captain, the aircraft is now precipitating only at 10 metres per second, instead of 15 metres per second. "

Captain: "Yes but we'll still crash you ******ing idiot".

Err, except the rate of decline isn't slowing, they're going UP.

However much you don't like it, that is the reality.

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Err, except the rate of decline isn't slowing, they're going UP.

However much you don't like it, that is the reality.

so are lending multiples...in a totally sustainable and long term benefit sort of way.

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What are the Nationwide and Halifax figures based on? Someone did a nice dissection of the Nationwide figues on here the other day, pretty much rendering them meaningless. They are reporting a rise based on approvals not sales, and are a very small section of the market. The NR figures in regards to arrears and negative equity however, were very real.

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I think a lot of HPC bears have become deluded by spending too much time on HPC! When you spend all day reading and submitting to a forum where the majority have the same opinion, and where posters who predict a different outcome are ridiculed, it is going to affect your sense of rationality. This is why people are going to be very dissapointed that they can't buy a house at 30-90% off 2007 prices (depending on your degree of optimism/doom mongery).

You probably were part of the herd who said house prices only ever go up in 2007.... Look what happened. A lot of people were able to buy at 20% off.

YOU were massively wrong then.

There has been a predictable bounce - this is necessary for the final phase of the cycle to begin. It's called a BULL TRAP.

When this is over (some say as soon as autumn/winter - I reckon a bit later) then misery for those who read your post and similar will begin.

Noticed your post was timed 9.16am. Just enough time to make a Nescafe from the kettle behind the pile of new instructions at the back of the office!

BUY NOW AT YOUR PERIL!!!

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What are the Nationwide and Halifax figures based on? Someone did a nice dissection of the Nationwide figues on here the other day, pretty much rendering them meaningless.

This is the problem with HPC I was talking about! For every bit of data that shows a rise in house prices, many HPCers will attempt to show that the data is invalid. It's denial because the truth of the matter is that it's not what they want to hear.

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90% off. who said that...come on...own up.

Renterbob.

Tell you what though, this 'recovery' really smells. if it all unravels spectacularly he may be not that far wrong. theres something not quite right about how the country and the govt are dealing with this financial crisis, and denial usually ends in tears big time. time will tell, but yes it really has been different this time, a new level of hoodwinkery.

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This is the problem with HPC I was talking about! For every bit of data that shows a rise in house prices, many HPCers will attempt to show that the data is invalid. It's denial because the truth of the matter is that it's not what they want to hear.

i'm not sure it's necessarily 100% accurate date up or down, dont they just do like a concensus and agree a figure, like a panel? i could be wrong.

now yesterday i did a mini survey based on my drive route - lots of new for sale boards, roughly 6 for sales for every sold in each street. i dont deny that brown has somehow defeated my expectations and despite the talk here of people needing bigger deposits, banks being short of loans etc etc etc, there still has been a media push to say 'look you had the crash and now its recovery'.

but all the time the media were saying its crash time i did post that i saw no real evidence of falls or a crash and i said it seemed engineered like choreographed - "Look boys & girls, its crashing, its crashing, its crashed/...Oh its crashed, so now it can only go up...its recovering its recovering...ooooh its recovered!"

it all seemed like that, staged, like a media VI campaign to make people think prices had fallen by more than they had and then buy thinking its now down so it must be better value.

retail is strewn with such ideas, but that it could (it seems) successfully be applied to massive purchases like property shows how dumbed down the population have become and how they have forgotten the value of money due to seldom handling it for real and just using screens and plastic.

this has, make no mistake, been a massive VI con trick, they will be sipping cocktails by the pool with their chiselled torso hunks and honey-skinned blondes, while we all toil for 30 years.

welcome to New Mugsville twinned with Ponzi Foreva.

its really an utter disgrace to enslave people like this, i hope they rot.

Edited by loginandtonic

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Some of us have vivid memories of the last crash, been here before and seen it all before.

The only difference this time is that we now have an internet forum to share our experiences.

The bulls can mock and rejoice in some good figures (for them) but the relentless slide down will continue.

The biggest boom in our lifetime doesn't end in a whimper. The biggest debt from Labour doesn't get paid of with a handful of Tesco clubcard vouchers.

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You probably were part of the herd who said house prices only ever go up in 2007.... Look what happened. A lot of people were able to buy at 20% off.

YOU were massively wrong then.

There has been a predictable bounce - this is necessary for the final phase of the cycle to begin. It's called a BULL TRAP.

When this is over (some say as soon as autumn/winter - I reckon a bit later) then misery for those who read your post and similar will begin.

Noticed your post was timed 9.16am. Just enough time to make a Nescafe from the kettle behind the pile of new instructions at the back of the office!

BUY NOW AT YOUR PERIL!!!

+1. :P:rolleyes:

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What are the Nationwide and Halifax figures based on? Someone did a nice dissection of the Nationwide figues on here the other day, pretty much rendering them meaningless. They are reporting a rise based on approvals not sales, and are a very small section of the market. The NR figures in regards to arrears and negative equity however, were very real.

Au Contraire, the Northern Rock figures are completely and utterly meaningless. They represent a terrible sample because NR was effectively forced to offload every single good mortgagee that it could over much of 2008 and 2009. So what they have left is already a "bad bank". Their stats are, and will remain, noticeably worse than all others.

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Au Contraire, the Northern Rock figures are completely and utterly meaningless. They represent a terrible sample because NR was effectively forced to offload every single good mortgagee that it could over much of 2008 and 2009. So what they have left is already a "bad bank". Their stats are, and will remain, noticeably worse than all others.

Oh AU CONTRAIRE to you too!! :rolleyes:

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