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ralphmalph

Uk Pmi 50.8 In July

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Very true IRRO.

What is very poisitive is that it is not being driven by funny financial accounting by the city but by manufacturing (do not forget the UK makes nothing). No doubt driven by having a decent exchange rate for the first time in 5 years.

It will be interesting to see if the car plants starting production again are in these figures if not could be even better next time.

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Clear signs of the recovery.

Demand is up.

could just be inventories have run out and firms are finally buying new stock in

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could just be inventories have run out and firms are finally buying new stock in

This is the key to it, just as those people who looked at the first quarter stats from manufacturing nations such as Japan and Germany simply annualised them and said they were really badly off, any sensible person would work out that demand slumped due to inventories being run down and very high uncertainty. There was always going to be some recovery in orders, as new things will always be needed. However, this does not mean that we get a long term recovery with constant growth. At this time it is more likely to involve a few positive months before stabilising at a slightly higher level.

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This is the key to it, just as those people who looked at the first quarter stats from manufacturing nations such as Japan and Germany simply annualised them and said they were really badly off, any sensible person would work out that demand slumped due to inventories being run down and very high uncertainty. There was always going to be some recovery in orders, as new things will always be needed. However, this does not mean that we get a long term recovery with constant growth. At this time it is more likely to involve a few positive months before stabilising at a slightly higher level.

nothing to do with billions of "stimulus" then.

this is always the way with stimulus. you get a stimulus.

then stimulus expires...people demand the next stimulus....and so it goes on.

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Guest Parry aka GOD

Government spending?

Anecedotal, but had a conversation two days ago with bloke in shipping, says he's flat out (between Sweden and Germany) as the Germans re-stock inventories (this was timber products) which had previously been run down to zilch. Not sure if this is the same with the UK.

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nothing to do with billions of "stimulus" then.

this is always the way with stimulus. you get a stimulus.

then stimulus expires...people demand the next stimulus....and so it goes on.

Except for Korean cars being sold in the UK, I'm not sure the stimulus in the UK has really had a huge impact. However it will have made some impact, and as you say, it will not be long before the many VIs who should be supporters of a free market start bleating about a new stimulus, just like a junkie looking for a new fix.

Edited by BalancedBear

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Except for Korean cars being sold in the UK, I'm not sure the stimulus in the UK has really had a huge impact. However it will have made some impact, and as you say, it will not be long before the many VIs who should be supporters of a free market start bleating about a new stimulus, just like a junkie looking for a new fix.

sure, the stimulus in cash for bangers, public sector projects and government spending will have had an effect.

the chambers of commerce were only last week calling for more QE to further stimulate....so the bleating has started.

anecdotal: this morning, my drive into the town centre at 5 to 9 was like a quiet sunday afternoon....no traffic queues where I expects 400m of queue, no throngs of pedestrians bunging up the small side road i need to take...eerie.

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sure, the stimulus in cash for bangers, public sector projects and government spending will have had an effect.

the chambers of commerce were only last week calling for more QE to further stimulate....so the bleating has started.

anecdotal: this morning, my drive into the town centre at 5 to 9 was like a quiet sunday afternoon....no traffic queues where I expects 400m of queue, no throngs of pedestrians bunging up the small side road i need to take...eerie.

Schools are off, roads always quieter.

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Schools are off, roads always quieter.

indeed, but this was the Town Centre.

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8639638

Global factory business activity stabilised in July as new orders and output recovered to levels not seen in well over a year, a survey showed on Monday.

The global index, produced by JP Morgan with research and supply management organisations, climbed to a 14-month high of 50.0 in July from 47.0 in June.

The index had spent 13 months below the 50.0 mark that divides growth from contraction.

"The rebound is likely to gain traction in the coming months, as the forward-looking orders-to-inventory ratio surged to a record high," said David Hensley, a director at JP Morgan.

Meanwhile, the manufacturing output index climbed to an 18-month high as the new orders index reached a 20-month high.

JP Morgan said the upturn was evenly balanced between developed and emerging markets in July. Earlier data showed the euro zone manufacturing sector edged closer to recovery while in the UK activity grew for the first time since March 2008.

The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted at a far slower pace than expected last month, with the Institute for Supply Management's index for national factory activity jumping to 48.9 from 44.8 in June and smashing the median forecast for 46.2 by 72 economists polled by Reuters.

The index combines survey data from countries including the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Britain, China and Russia.

The recovery goes from strength to strength.

Brown really has saved the world, debt mountains are irrelevant the recovery is here.

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Guest Parry aka GOD
Should be fun when manufacturers figure out nobody is going to buy their product.

That's the thing. Don't look to Asia. The import duties are crippling. Pure, pure protectionism.

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This is just restocking and all the new goods when sold on to the public will have to priced higher due to the weakness of the pound which will of course be inflationary.

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This is just restocking and all the new goods when sold on to the public will have to priced higher due to the weakness of the pound which will of course be inflationary.

If you read the link to the Guardain article that IRRO posted they are saying that the forward orders are too strong for it to be just restocking.

Also some chap on Radio 5 live this evening linked to the small business federation said that his members had noticed that UK firms were placing orders on small UK business instead of placing them with Chinese companies because the UK firms were cheaper.

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If you read the link to the Guardain article that IRRO posted they are saying that the forward orders are too strong for it to be just restocking.

Also some chap on Radio 5 live this evening linked to the small business federation said that his members had noticed that UK firms were placing orders on small UK business instead of placing them with Chinese companies because the UK firms were cheaper.

Hmmm does cheaper prices make a recovery when there is the noose of debt around everyone's necks?

I had been wondering if the reason orders where up was because prices had been lowered.

The next few months it seems will be interesting.

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Hmmm does cheaper prices make a recovery when there is the noose of debt around everyone's necks?

I had been wondering if the reason orders where up was because prices had been lowered.

The next few months it seems will be interesting.

It does not mean the UK firms have lowered thier prices, eventhough with the steep decline in raw materials they may have. It was because the exchange rate has moved in thier favour for once.

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No.

The economy did not "grow"

Are we going to continue to believe in anything, anything that both the government or it's little quango agencies release?

This fictitious, seasonal ****** real does question sanity doesn't it?

Anyone working at the moment,( I mean working, not gambling with our futures and creating a f u c k up for our children)

understands the reality of the situation. Fighting to save their jobs, taking pay cuts, working for nothing

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