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Dave Beans

Nhf Forecasts House Prices Will Be 20% Higher Than Today By 2014

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Yeah yeah yeah...

fundamental under-supply of housing

The same old tired rhetoric. What about the fundamental oversupply of boomer's downsizing over the next decade? No mention of that bit in there, or the 1.3 £trillion we taxpayers are in to the banks for their bailouts, North Sea decline, inflation, deflation, EU....

Just the usual irrational exuberance, based on loose facts and bogus forecasts, from a big honking VI.

Meh. I forecast they are dead wrong, based on the fact that they were not right pre-crash.

Edited by cashinmattress

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The reversal in 2011 would accelerate in 2012 with a 7.5% increase in prices, the NHF said, followed by rises of 8.4% in 2013 and 6.8% in 2014.

I for one welcome our new house price inflation accuracy masters.

(9.16% guaranteed,in 5 years time, that is).

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Yeah yeah yeah...

The same old tired rhetoric. What about the fundamental oversupply of boomer's downsizing over the next decade? No mention of that bit in there, or the 1.3 £trillion we taxpayers are in to the banks for their bailouts, North Sea decline, inflation, deflation, EU....

Just the usual irrational exuberance, based on loose facts and bogus forecasts, from a big honking VI.

Meh. I forecast they are dead wrong, based on the fact that they were not right pre-crash.

..and of course the estimated 1 miliion empty properties that are standing idle..

Edited by zagreb78

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The NHF represents Housing Associations, they always predict HPI because high prices mean that demand for social housing increases and guess who builds most social housing these days.

Look at this idiocy from 2008:

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages-and...p;in_page_id=57

Yeah, that kind of stuff was specifically written with Sibley and the gang in mind.

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i thought this prediction was quite bearish in parts. although most likely wrong.

For one, they are predicting a 12% drop this year, when nationwide have said there was a good chance of a YoY positive figure for 2009. They also said more drops in 2009, when no doubt bouyed by nationwide figures the VI's would predict a strong increase in prices through 2010.

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i thought this prediction was quite bearish in parts. although most likely wrong.

Me too, though I couldn't help bearing in mind the uselessness of their record on prediction, something I wish the BBC had alluded to.

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Me too, though I couldn't help bearing in mind the uselessness of their record on prediction, something I wish the BBC had alluded to.

Yes, if only the BBC was interested in the Truth what a much better country this would be.

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I can almost sense the faux-concern of the hippy housing officers in the NHF 'oh dear, those unfortunate poor people, the market is going to run away and the only way we can save them is if the govt gives us lots of money for social housing provision. Frankly I need the extra salary as my BTL portfolio has tanked. I'm actually a really caring person, and know that houses always go up in GB's economic paradise. Sod it if my kids have to pay the national debt, we're saving the world. Go on, give me some money, it's the right thing to do. Look here's a report to justify it, it's printed and everything.'

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As we have two threads on this, reposted from the other one [NHF source link at bottom]

National Housing Federation, House Price Forecast, 03/Aug/2009

Figures by Oxford Exonomics:

House Price Inflation in England, for each year

2009 -12.2%

2010 -4.6%

2011 +1.1%

2012 +7.5%

2013 +8.4%

2014 +6.8%

Region, forecast to 2014

England - £227,800

North East – £155,700 (compared to £148,100 in 2007)

North West – £159,300 (£162,000 in 2007)

Yorkshire & Humberside – £175,600 (£163,600 in 2007)

East Midlands – £165,300 (£172,500 in 2007)

West Midlands – £180,500 (£178,400 in 2007)

East of England – £235,400 (£231,100 in 2007)

London – £354,900 (£329,200 in 2007)

South East – £293,600 (£267,000 in 2007)

South West – £225,400 (£224,500 in 2007).

NHF Release:

http://www.housing.org.uk/default.aspx?tab...;ArticleID=2312

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I always find it hysterical that anyone can predict, with a straight face, that house price inflation will be 6.8% in 2014. That's five years away! No-one's able to predict with any degree of accuracy what it will be next month! And not 6.7%, nor 6.9% mind. 6.8%. I think its the decimal point that always makes me snigger.

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I always find it hysterical that anyone can predict, with a straight face, that house price inflation will be 6.8% in 2014. That's five years away! No-one's able to predict with any degree of accuracy what it will be next month! And not 6.7%, nor 6.9% mind. 6.8%. I think its the decimal point that always makes me snigger.

to the feeble-minded, a decimal point gives it authority

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And here's what they said in 2008 and 2007... (basically, follow the current trend for a bit then tack on a ~10% pa growth!)

Home Truths 2008

http://www.housing.org.uk/default.aspx?tabid=495

http://www.housing.org.uk/Uploads/File/Hom...truths_2008.pdf

Home Truths 2007

http://www.housing.org.uk/Uploads/File/Pol...20-%20FINAL.pdf

Edited by spline

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NHF are they any relation to the NHS :)

not a gazillion miles away -they are an umbrella body representing housing associations, promoting national social housing provision - very self promoting and sanctimonious

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And here's what they said in 2008 and 2007... (basically, follow the current trend for a bit then tack on a ~10% pa growth!)

Home Truths 2008

http://www.housing.org.uk/default.aspx?tabid=495

http://www.housing.org.uk/Uploads/File/Hom...truths_2008.pdf

Home Truths 2007

http://www.housing.org.uk/Uploads/File/Pol...20-%20FINAL.pdf

'hopme truths' - not slightly emotive, eh!

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And here's what they said in 2008 and 2007... (basically, follow the current trend for a bit then tack on a ~10% pa growth!)

Home Truths 2008

http://www.housing.org.uk/default.aspx?tabid=495

http://www.housing.org.uk/Uploads/File/Hom...truths_2008.pdf

Home Truths 2007

http://www.housing.org.uk/Uploads/File/Pol...20-%20FINAL.pdf

Ha ha ha that 2007 one is hilarious! 40% rise 2007-2012! Twunts. And much bigger than that in london - average up to £478K

Safe to ignore these idiots i think

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From the first page of the Comedy 2007 report (01/Aug/2007): :lol:

A housingmarket crash is unlikely. Indeed, our newforecasts for

the next five years fromOxford Economics suggest house prices

will rise bymore than 40%across England by 2012

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Mods - please merge with the other two threads as they have the original sources and the 2007,2008 reports.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=2050527

Edited by spline

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This is a new report released today,

From the NHF site--according to a new forecast published today (Monday 3 August)

OK, as we now have three threads on this, I'll repost here ... :P

Edit: look what they predicted in Aug/2007!

National Housing Federation, House Price Forecast, 03/Aug/2009

Figures by Oxford Exonomics:

House Price Inflation in England, for each year

2009 -12.2%

2010 -4.6%

2011 +1.1%

2012 +7.5%

2013 +8.4%

2014 +6.8%

Region, forecast to 2014

England - £227,800

North East – £155,700 (compared to £148,100 in 2007)

North West – £159,300 (£162,000 in 2007)

Yorkshire & Humberside – £175,600 (£163,600 in 2007)

East Midlands – £165,300 (£172,500 in 2007)

West Midlands – £180,500 (£178,400 in 2007)

East of England – £235,400 (£231,100 in 2007)

London – £354,900 (£329,200 in 2007)

South East – £293,600 (£267,000 in 2007)

South West – £225,400 (£224,500 in 2007).

NHF Release:

http://www.housing.org.uk/default.aspx?tab...;ArticleID=2312

And here's what they said in 2008 and 2007... (basically, follow the current trend for a bit then tack on a ~10% pa growth!)

Home Truths 2008

http://www.housing.org.uk/default.aspx?tabid=495

http://www.housing.org.uk/Uploads/File/Hom...truths_2008.pdf

Home Truths 2007

http://www.housing.org.uk/Uploads/File/Pol...20-%20FINAL.pdf

From the first page of the Comedy 2007 report (01/Aug/2007): :lol:

A housingmarket crash is unlikely. Indeed, our newforecasts for

the next five years fromOxford Economics suggest house prices

will rise bymore than 40%across England by 2012

Edited by spline

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Some people soon throw their teddy out don't they.

Blimey, you’ve bumped your own thread after it’s dropped from the front page … :D

Anyway, most people here would think that that NHF saying in Aug/07 that “housing market crash is unlikely†with predictions of “40% across England by 2012†quite funny and well worth bumping, especially as the old reports show this to be part of a campaign for more social housing rather serious comment on the current state of the housing market.

Edited by spline

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How can anyone take this NHF survey seriously

Prices down 16.1 per cent this year, then down 3.4 % next year, then up 2.1% in 2011 and up 8.9% in 2012 followed by rises of 10.7% in 2013 and 7.4% in 2014. :P:lol::blink:

The attempt at tenths of decimal place estimates for 5 years ahead is laughable - maybe for the next year but 5 years time.

Crazy - no proper statistical organisation would produce figures like this and claim them as some sort of fact.

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