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List Of Elephants

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Hello

These are the elephants in the room that i can see starting the next leg down. Feel free to add your own.

1. Commercial Property Loans going wrong - Bank Bailout number 2 - if you think negative equity on houses is a problem..

2. Credit Card Debt going wrong- not as much of a problem although unsecured debt

3. Unemployment contiuing to rise - pubic sector next?

4. Government Bond market strike shoving interest rates up- has potential

5. Wage deflation - both real and hidden (no pay extra holidays/less hours - happening already)

6. Social change - A concerted effort to repair personal balance sheets (like in Japan)

7. Withdraal of Quantitative Easing and early hike in Interest Rates (unlikely in my view)

8. Continued lack of availability of mortgages without large deposit (likely in my view)

9. Conservatives go after the bankers if they get in power - lets hope so

The way i see it, the majority are going to try and pay back a lot of debt leading to a retrenchment. Also, without the unions i don't see anything but wage deflation in the near to medium term, others are the powerhouse of the world economy now.

On an aside i was at a mates house last night. Another one of his mates (sacked banker) has just had his house remortgaged off a value of £480,000. He bought it at the top for £730,000. Not the nicest part of town but that's a lot more than a 20% fall.

I'm in Commercial Property and we are seeing the same rebound in pricing. However this is only for the best properties let to the best tenants on long leases and even though the occupational market fundamentals are out of sinc with falling rents. All the crapp has either stagnated at 40% down or has fallen further.

It's only a matter of time.

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Shouldnt that be a herd of elephants?

or an economy of elephants?

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Guest anorthosite
These are the elephants in the room that i can see starting the next leg down.

I know she's big, but does Krusty count as an elephant?

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Hello

These are the elephants in the room that i can see starting the next leg down. Feel free to add your own.

1. Commercial Property Loans going wrong - Bank Bailout number 3 - if you think negative equity on houses is a problem..

2. Credit Card Debt going wrong- not as much of a problem although unsecured debt

3. Unemployment contiuing to rise - pubic sector next?

4. Government Bond market strike shoving interest rates up- has potential

5. Wage deflation - both real and hidden (no pay extra holidays/less hours - happening already)

6. Social change - A concerted effort to repair personal balance sheets (like in Japan)

7. Withdrawal of Quantitative Easing and early hike in Interest Rates (unlikely in my view)

8. Continued lack of availability of mortgages without large deposit (likely in my view)

9. Conservatives go after the bankers if they get in power - lets hope so

The way i see it, the majority are going to try and pay back a lot of debt leading to a retrenchment. Also, without the unions i don't see anything but wage deflation in the near to medium term, others are the powerhouse of the world economy now.

On an aside i was at a mates house last night. Another one of his mates (sacked banker) has just had his house remortgaged off a value of £480,000. He bought it at the top for £730,000. Not the nicest part of town but that's a lot more than a 20% fall.

I'm in Commercial Property and we are seeing the same rebound in pricing. However this is only for the best properties let to the best tenants on long leases and even though the occupational market fundamentals are out of sinc with falling rents. All the crapp has either stagnated at 40% down or has fallen further.

It's only a matter of time.

Fixed for number 1, we've already has 2 bank bailouts.

And you haven't mentioned the pension timebomb, nor the endowment mortgage timebomb either.

The fundamentals are not good and the problem of debt still has to be tackled, so far no govt policy has attacked the real economic problem.

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Fixed for number 1, we've already has 2 bank bailouts.

And you haven't mentioned the pension timebomb, nor the endowment mortgage timebomb either.

The fundamentals are not good and the problem of debt still has to be tackled, so far no govt policy has attacked the real economic problem.

When do you think the interest only mortgages will start expiring. When did they take off? 1997?

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...

Hello

These are the elephants in the room that i can see starting the next leg down. Feel free to add your own.

...

I certainly will old boy!

10. Jumbo

11. Nelly

As to the poster who mentioned the "Krust", You Sir are most ungentlemanly and a scoundrel to boot!

How dare to compare that scaly skinned, big eared, big nosed, filthy, swamp-wallowing jungle creature

to our friend the elephant!

gB

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8. Continued lack of availability of mortgages without large deposit (likely in my view)

Lack of credit generally is significant, not just for the housing market generally, but for the entire economy. Businesses are finding it much harder to finance themselves and this leads to more insolvencies and less opportunity for investment.

The lack of mortgage credit is for me the most compelling argument as to why house prices must continue to fall. With the mortgage tap turned off, we can either:

a) a seriously lower number of transactions, as we have at present (not feasible for the long-run)

or

B ) falling prices so that a normal number of transactions can take place with the available credit.

Only b seems likely, so prices must continue to fall. Of course, credit will ease over time, but we will not see a return to the level of credit that was available 2002 to 2007.

Edited by Ah-so

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When do you think the interest only mortgages will start expiring. When did they take off? 1997?

Long term problem in essence as they presumable over 25 years, depends whether the banks want to give out margin calls or not when the initial deal expires or they may seek to put these people on repayment mortgages when there initial rates expire. Anyone know what the banks are doing with these?

Or even better they may leave these alone and leave for someone else to sort out in the future, your looking around 2022 for these gems to start kicking off when people realise they have made no plans to pay off the capital then you have panic. Many with interest only will have planned to sell off the asset and clear the loan. Fine when the asset in question is going up 10%+ YoY, not such a clever idea when prices are decreasing.

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Guest anorthosite
As to the poster who mentioned the "Krust", You Sir are most ungentlemanly and a scoundrel to boot!

And can I also say I prefer my sandwiches without a "Krust".

"Can I have a Beany and Meryn sandwich please? No Krust".

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Long term problem in essence as they presumable over 25 years, depends whether the banks want to give out margin calls or not when the initial deal expires or they may seek to put these people on repayment mortgages when there initial rates expire. Anyone know what the banks are doing with these?

Or even better they may leave these alone and leave for someone else to sort out in the future, your looking around 2022 for these gems to start kicking off when people realise they have made no plans to pay off the capital then you have panic. Many with interest only will have planned to sell off the asset and clear the loan. Fine when the asset in question is going up 10%+ YoY, not such a clever idea when prices are decreasing.

I agree. Apart from commercial property losses, I believe that this recession and HPC will be interesting not only due to its sheer scale, but also because it is the first mass HPC and NE infection the UK sheeple have ever suffered in combination with the comparatively new and untested/widespread phenomena of Interest Only mortages, coupled with NO repayment vehicle of any kind.

To exacerbate the problem, the poor suckers who took out these mortgages mostly did so at high LTV (100%+ in many cases) and at peak. I know 2 personally who now realise they are in NE, are effectively renting their homes from the bank and will never be able to repay the loans nor switch to a repayment mortgage. They are starting to get depressed, floundering around wondering what to do - one set has a history of CCJs and credit card debts, the other was subject of a voluntary debt order or whatever it is called (before she got the mortgage! what were these banks doing).

To cap it all, my 2 victims - and I am guessing many others on IO - are not even getting a cheap rate of interest due to bad credit histories. And their mortgages are resetting to even higher interest next year....can anyone think of a more depressing scenario to be in? (Excluding obvious answers like being a western soldier being held captive by Taleban etc)

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3. Unemployment contiuing to rise - pubic sector next?

It's only a matter of time.

I doubt it, prostitution seems to survive recessions, in fact I believe it becomes one of the few growth industries! :lol:

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Hello

These are the elephants in the room that i can see starting the next leg down. Feel free to add your own.

9. Conservatives go after the bankers if they get in power - lets hope so

hahahohoheehee, [oops theres another rib gone], hahahohoheehee

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QUOTE

9. Conservatives go after the bankers if they get in power - lets hope so

Are you serious?

Like Osbourne went after Rothschild last vear? :lol:

The Tories are even more in the bankers pockets than Labour, the bankers aren't stupid, if the LibDems looked like taking power they'd subvert them as well.

Who was against the bailouts? Who wanted to let the banks fail?

No-one significant. That tells you all you need to know.

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Blimey

There seems to be two types of people on here. Some of whom are helpful and welcoming and some of whom seem to laugh at one of my comments because it doesn't share their view.

I was looking for a bit of re-assurance of my thoughts and a bit of like minded discussion, not to be shot down in flames.

I'm not going to be patronised by a certain section if the board so won't be posting again.

This website's very useful but it does tend to attract some self righteous types.

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