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ezekiel

Election - When?

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My forceast is they'll call it after a few months of HPI and before Christmas (so late October, early November). GB can't wait until Jan/Feb because everyone always feels poor then and any later risks bad news starting to leak out.

What do you think?

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Guest KingCharles1st

After reading the "Bloke on the Train" thread- I see little point in having one.... :ph34r:

Edited by KingCharles1st

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GB will be long gone.

M for Mandelslime - as soon as he can get a positive GDP number.

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My forceast is they'll call it after a few months of HPI and before Christmas (so late October, early November). GB can't wait until Jan/Feb because everyone always feels poor then and any later risks bad news starting to leak out.

What do you think?

I think it will be 3rd June 2010, which is pretty much the last possible moment the election can be held.

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GB will be long gone.

M for Mandelslime - as soon as he can get a positive GDP number.

How will gb go?

Could a September election save labour?

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How will gb go?

Could a September election save labour?

I have no idea. Now that Straw has changed the law to allow Lords to resign, all Mandelslime needs is a safe by-election and Brown will be offered the revolver (or more likely a cushy job at the IMF or World Bank or somewhere where he can usefully be relied upon to divert billions of credits to Labour and their Chinese and Indian friends).

I doubt they'll go to the bother of electing Mandelslime - nobody will vote for Harman and Johnson will easily be bought off with some guff and promises.

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GB will be long gone.

M for Mandelslime - as soon as he can get a positive GDP number.

thats easy, just get the BoE to QE 1bn to Ford Motor Company and others.

thats government spending and counts in the GDP

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I think it will be 3rd June 2010, which is pretty much the last possible moment the election can be held.

Absolutely.

Labour have no chance of winning the next election, any more than the Conservatives did in 1997. Since they're going to lose anyway it's logical for them to hold on to the final day, and try and lay some plans for winning back in 2014/15.

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Guest anorthosite
I think it will be 3rd June 2010, which is pretty much the last possible moment the election can be held.

Aren't there local elections a month earlier? I'm assuming they'll be held on the same day, although it'd be bloody funny to watch labour tear itself apart after a local drubbing if they did wait until June for the general election.

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I think it will be 3rd June 2010, which is pretty much the last possible moment the election can be held.

No chance. There are local elections on 6th May and they won't want to do a locals campaign, probably get effed in the a then start a GE campaign.

Easter weekend is 2nd-5th April which would interrupt campaigning so 6th May coincident with the locals is the only date that makes sense.

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Given the media's penchent for being economical with the truth,I think they'll leave it a couple more months...with some rather enticing statistical evidence that house prices are going up,and the economy is on the mend.

3 or 4 months of goldfish-like houseprice optimism memory span ought to do the job.

they know they are in trouble,so it's either going to be bribery or bullying.

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No chance. There are local elections on 6th May and they won't want to do a locals campaign, probably get effed in the a then start a GE campaign.

Easter weekend is 2nd-5th April which would interrupt campaigning so 6th May coincident with the locals is the only date that makes sense.

They are going to lose either way, but if they can get another month's pay cheque before their P45s arrive, they will.

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does this really exist at the moment - a safe by-election for labour?

Sure, there's probably an irreducible core of about 50 seats that will remain Labour as long as the party exists in some form.

It's hard to see Labour losing somewhere like Knowlsey that voted LAB 73 CON 10 LIB 9 in the 2005 GE.

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Remember they have to wait for the Irish referendum (Oct 2?) before calling an election

If not October, I would be surprised if they dont wait until the bitter end. Turnout will be rubbish in the winter months (which is surely bad for Lab). Plus a few more months of perks and expenses.

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Guest The Relaxation Suite
My forceast is they'll call it after a few months of HPI and before Christmas (so late October, early November). GB can't wait until Jan/Feb because everyone always feels poor then and any later risks bad news starting to leak out.

What do you think?

Could be. Tory vote goes down in bad weather so they'll def. go for a winter election. Irrelevant though because they'll lose by a lanslide and never see power again (as we know Labour, anyway).

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Sure, there's probably an irreducible core of about 50 seats that will remain Labour as long as the party exists in some form.

It's hard to see Labour losing somewhere like Knowlsey that voted LAB 73 CON 10 LIB 9 in the 2005 GE.

Seats like that could be lost to other socialist parties, in the same way that labour lost Blaenau Gwent and Benthal Green & Bow. Parachuting in Mandelson to replace a popular local figure is the sort of thing that could trigger that.

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Absolutely.

Labour have no chance of winning the next election, any more than the Conservatives did in 1997. Since they're going to lose anyway it's logical for them to hold on to the final day, and try and lay some plans for winning back in 2014/15.

I think Labour have no chance of winnig the next election, any more than the Conservatives did in 1992. Don't know why you're all so confident.

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The key to all this is Brown - universally hated and inherently unsuited to his current job - however seen as I have yet to meet anyone who has any real enthusiasm for David Cameron then maybe a change of leader might alter the equation but the PLP seem too scared of Brown anyway to do that .

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