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tokenpunter

Was It Worth Waiting For?

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For those of us waiting for a crash, government intervention has meant that price falls are modest at best. My neighbour is selling his flat for the same price I bought mine for in 2006. Personally I would like to see prices drop to 1995 levels. If the government hadn't rescued banks and the Bank of England had maintained reasonable interest rates, maybe we would be there by now? Was it worth waiting for?

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Guest absolutezero
For those of us waiting for a crash, government intervention has meant that price falls are modest at best. My neighbour is selling his flat for the same price I bought mine for in 2006. Personally I would like to see prices drop to 1995 levels. If the government hadn't rescued banks and the Bank of England had maintained reasonable interest rates, maybe we would be there by now? Was it worth waiting for?

Yes.

It hasn't finished yet. Not by a long way.

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Yes.

It hasn't finished yet. Not by a long way.

Agreed, only just getting started. Some of us have lived through crashes before and can remember the "green shoots" rubbish then.

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Yes.

It hasn't finished yet. Not by a long way.

It will be fun (of a sort), I think, when the efforts of the government run out of steam. Well, very slow-motion fun, and not fun for sheeple who get possessed (aka 'repossessed') or people who lose their jobs, for whom I do feel sorry, especially if they end up homeless or on the street. Edited by Fly by Night

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For those of us waiting for a crash, government intervention has meant that price falls are modest at best. My neighbour is selling his flat for the same price I bought mine for in 2006. Personally I would like to see prices drop to 1995 levels. If the government hadn't rescued banks and the Bank of England had maintained reasonable interest rates, maybe we would be there by now? Was it worth waiting for?

Asking price or sold price?

Big difference.

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Guest spp
To quote someone a little greater than me:

This is (nearly) the end of the begining not the begining of the end

+1

It's going to get messy!

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For those of us waiting for a crash, government intervention has meant that price falls are modest at best. My neighbour is selling his flat for the same price I bought mine for in 2006. Personally I would like to see prices drop to 1995 levels. If the government hadn't rescued banks and the Bank of England had maintained reasonable interest rates, maybe we would be there by now? Was it worth waiting for?

is your neighbour trading up?

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We're only about a third of the way through!

I d be interested in seeing proof that the crash has not bottoomed out. Working in finance in London, employment has picked up again VERY sharply with all banks heavily recruiting.

Bonuses this year will be quite substancial - I also wish there would be a crash but in my mind the last two months, things have really got much better.

All the uncertainty has been removed from the market.

Just look at the stick market if you want confirmation of this.

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For those of us waiting for a crash, government intervention has meant that price falls are modest at best. My neighbour is selling his flat for the same price I bought mine for in 2006. Personally I would like to see prices drop to 1995 levels. If the government hadn't rescued banks and the Bank of England had maintained reasonable interest rates, maybe we would be there by now? Was it worth waiting for?

unlikely that house prices would drop from 2008 levels to 1995 levels in the space of 12 months!

what are you waiting for? for everything to fall in your lap based on your own timescales?

japan is a good barometer of how things will likely turn out. everything that happened to them is happening to us now.

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No. Asking pricing remain stuck at or near peak. Government intervention has seemingly crushed any hopes of cheaper housing and media driven sentiment is looking strong. If Chinese and foreign banks start lending directly to UK house buyers, another price bubble based on fewer transactions is looking possible.

As another thread discussed, the very young people who have most to lose by rising prices hardly ever realise this, and see an upwards turn in prices as a VERY good thing.

Edited by Turnbull2000

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I d be interested in seeing proof that the crash has not bottoomed out. Working in finance in London, employment has picked up again VERY sharply with all banks heavily recruiting.

Bonuses this year will be quite substancial - I also wish there would be a crash but in my mind the last two months, things have really got much better.

All the uncertainty has been removed from the market.

Just look at the stick market if you want confirmation of this.

thing are much better compared to what exactly? armegeddon?

even under a normal economic environment, house prices are still way overvalued.

weve got mass unemployment brewing up and in 2 years from now well all start to know what the meaning of 100% debt to gdp is.

japan debt to gdp is at 170%. 20% of their tax revenue today goes to servicing their debt. this is based on 0.5% interest rates.

if interest rates rise 1% in japan, 40% of tax revenue will go towards servicing debt. they are trapped in a debt cycle.

things have improved slightly now because governments have spent trillions of dollars to prop things up which you might want to realise needs to be paid back over the next decade.

the trillions of dollars havent come suddenly from nowhere - it has come from our future earnings. a large proportion of your income tax/future income tax will be used to pay off the interest on the money that is being pumped into the system right now.

Edited by mfp123

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For those of us waiting for a crash, government intervention has meant that price falls are modest at best. My neighbour is selling his flat for the same price I bought mine for in 2006. Personally I would like to see prices drop to 1995 levels. If the government hadn't rescued banks and the Bank of England had maintained reasonable interest rates, maybe we would be there by now? Was it worth waiting for?

Personally, I'd like to win the lottery. :lol: Who says prices were right in 1995? They were very low relative to earnings - more like 2.5x than today's 5x and much lower than the usual 3x-4x. Prices might fall back to 2.5x earnings but it would take many years. I don't think 1995 nominal prices will ever return.

If the government hadn't rescued the banks, the entire economy would have collapsed and we would be living in something akin to post-communist Russia: house prices would be nearly an irrelevance.

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I d be interested in seeing proof that the crash has not bottoomed out. Working in finance in London, employment has picked up again VERY sharply with all banks heavily recruiting.

Bonuses this year will be quite substancial - I also wish there would be a crash but in my mind the last two months, things have really got much better.

All the uncertainty has been removed from the market.

Just look at the stick market if you want confirmation of this.

I don't disagree with your observations

Working with many well know banks, I am seeing a mini boom in services, due to consolidation activity due to the rash of takeovers following the credit crunch. Consolidation creates much work in the short term, but wholesale job losses down the line

The fools who work in these banks think that they are busy because things are picking up; oblivious to the fact that they are hard at work digging their own graves.

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Personally, I'd like to win the lottery. :lol: Who says prices were right in 1995? They were very low relative to earnings - more like 2.5x than today's 5x and much lower than the usual 3x-4x. Prices might fall back to 2.5x earnings but it would take many years. I don't think 1995 nominal prices will ever return.

If the government hadn't rescued the banks, the entire economy would have collapsed and we would be living in something akin to post-communist Russia: house prices would be nearly an irrelevance.

the reason house prices fell to the extreme low klevel of 2.5 times was purely because of the fact they rose to equally exterme levels in the bubble. The fact that this bubble has been even more extreme than the 90s one again means the falls will be equall as extreme to the downside possibly to below 2 times. There is 1 cast iron guarantee in the markets and that is that however extreme the bubble goes up in overvaluation it will subsequently fall to the same extreme undervaluation

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Memory from previous crashes tells me that we only hit the bottom when no one would even consider buying a house, but sadly, that does take a good few years. Anybody that buys now thinking they are at the bottom is in for a very large shock and should remember this. My friend was reposessed in the early 90's and is still paying of his debt to the bank even now :(

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I don't disagree with your observations

Working with many well know banks, I am seeing a mini boom in services, due to consolidation activity due to the rash of takeovers following the credit crunch. Consolidation creates much work in the short term, but wholesale job losses down the line

The fools who work in these banks think that they are busy because things are picking up; oblivious to the fact that they are hard at work digging their own graves.

theres that, and perhaps a slightly more important factor in that the banks are being bankrolled by the government to the tune of £1.5 trillion of liabilities.

generally when any industry receives guarantees of up to £1.5 trillion things ought to pick up at the very least.

try pumping £50 billion of cash into the car industry, youll probably find things pick up quite quickly in the short term.

the only thing is everyone will be paying for this over the next decade.

Edited by mfp123

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Memory from previous crashes tells me that we only hit the bottom when no one would even consider

This is completely logical and is the case with every asset price crash and has to be so, just the same as a top can only be reached when everyone expects prices to go up and cant crash.

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For those of us waiting for a crash, government intervention has meant that price falls are modest at best. My neighbour is selling his flat for the same price I bought mine for in 2006. Personally I would like to see prices drop to 1995 levels. If the government hadn't rescued banks and the Bank of England had maintained reasonable interest rates, maybe we would be there by now? Was it worth waiting for?

The fat lady has not even arrived, let alone cleared her throat!

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I think we have encountered a " new " dilemma, if we had not bailed out the banks prices would have crashed way more than they have.

The problem now is interest rates stuck at low levels, if they go up debt cannot be serviced by people or govts..we crash!

If they stick at almost nothing we will eventually see hyperinflation in almost everything, food, insurance....the lot. We may not "crash" but your wages will be worthless as most people will not be getting rises.

Housing is different though, you need to borrow normally to buy, this means they will stagnate as lending will not return to previous silly levels.

So instead of a few responsible banks, affordable housing and commodities such as food... as we should have,

We will have unaffordable housing with even basics such food bieng expensive, and high taxes to pay for irresponsible banks who will no doubt take bigger risks and invent new ways of shifting sh1t and keep troughing on in pursuit of ever bigger bonuses, safe in the knowledge they are now too big to be allowed to fail.

"Moral hazard" has been replaced in the govt's vocabulary by " for god's sake keep it going somehow for a bit longer."

It's all Fecked no matter what happens for the average Joe now! :(

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