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The Economist

http://www.economist.com/research/articles...ory_id=14133744

EARLY this year Asia’s economies were falling shockingly fast; now they are rebounding even more strongly than expected. Year-on-year growth rates conceal this bounce; to spot the turning-point, look at quarterly changes. Comparing the second quarter with the first at an annualised rate, South Korea’s GDP grew by almost 10% (though it is still down 2.5% on a year earlier); Singapore’s soared by 20% (3.7% down on the year). China does not publish quarterly figures, but economists think its GDP jumped by an annualised 15-17%.

CAS834.gif

My comment: China's brilliant leaders and juggernaught economy are lifting Asia out of depression, and into serious growth. China has tons of room to keep stimulus spending as well. The last numbers I saw for Chinese inflation showed consumer prices falling at over 1%, and producer prices falling over 7% yoy.

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The Economist

http://www.economist.com/research/articles...ory_id=14133744

CAS834.gif

My comment: China's brilliant leaders and juggernaught economy are lifting Asia out of depression, and into serious growth. China has tons of room to keep stimulus spending as well. The last numbers I saw for Chinese inflation showed consumer prices falling at over 1%, and producer prices falling over 7% yoy.

forget not that government stimulus spending adds straight to the GDP.

you can borrow your way into GDP growth very easily.

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My comment: China's brilliant leaders and juggernaught economy are lifting Asia out of depression, and into serious growth. China has tons of room to keep stimulus spending as well. The last numbers I saw for Chinese inflation showed consumer prices falling at over 1%, and producer prices falling over 7% yoy.

Yep massive credit binge, bubbles everywhere. Companies are investing surplus funds into the stockmarket, like 1929. And why do the bond auctions keep failing (clue: the market thinks yields are not giving a real return)?

On the current course, China will be forced to choose between yuan revaluation (resulting in bust due to huge overcapacity) or high inflation if it stays chained to a sinking $. Not so brilliant.

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I think the Chinese consumption of metals might help western nations. As developing countries sell the metals to China, they then get money to keep buying western industrial products.

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I think the Chinese consumption of metals might help western nations. As developing countries sell the metals to China, they then get money to keep buying western industrial products.

..............................but then again they might use this money to buy chinese goods, which are much cheaper.

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..............................but then again they might use this money to buy chinese goods, which are much cheaper.

I will remain a sceptic until I see Asian consumer spending not just expanding, but offsetting the collapse in demand in the US/ EU. Or, a genuine recovery in the West with growth > +2%

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I will remain a sceptic until I see Asian consumer spending not just expanding, but offsetting the collapse in demand in the US/ EU. Or, a genuine recovery in the West with growth > +2%

I cant see a recovery in the west, i am not certain what is going to happen in the east as i think that is an uknown quantity.

.....intresting times.

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http://www.chinacartimes.com/2009/10/14/chinese-september-car-sales-top-1-million-mark-again/

Overall yearly sales are expected to hit 12 million by the end of the year and cross the 10 million mark by the middle of October 2009, sales from January to September rose by 34.2% to 9.66 million units.

World's largest auto market by unit volume now. 34.2% growth in one year off of these kind of numbers is big.

Its a good example of when a country is committed to go 'all the way' with stimulus. The whole economic theory in the west right now is backwards. We have this thought you have to wait until the demand is there to build capital projects. The truth is the other way, build it and they will come. Like the movie field of dreams.

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Guest P-Diddly

http://www.chinacartimes.com/2009/10/14/chinese-september-car-sales-top-1-million-mark-again/

World's largest auto market by unit volume now. 34.2% growth in one year off of these kind of numbers is big.

Its a good example of when a country is committed to go 'all the way' with stimulus. The whole economic theory in the west right now is backwards. We have this thought you have to wait until the demand is there to build capital projects. The truth is the other way, build it and they will come. Like the movie field of dreams.

What?

So this has nothing to do with wealth creation having moved from west to east and the development of domestic eastern markets then?

Oh and if it's stimulus causing such high growth figures, how is this healthy or sustainable?

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Its a good example of when a country is committed to go 'all the way' with stimulus. The whole economic theory in the west right now is backwards. We have this thought you have to wait until the demand is there to build capital projects. The truth is the other way, build it and they will come. Like the movie field of dreams.

i) We can't afford to build the capital projects, we don;t have the earnings to cover them. Look at PFI - a total fudge, some fairly small scale piss poord projects that have costs 100's billions in future liabilities + lots of additional costs.

ii) The stimulus this country is spedning is being pissed up against the wall to create mini bubbles or bailout bankrupt, corrupt, incompetent, fecklless entities of the worst form.

iii) If some stimulus was to be spent on facilities, say commercial property, it would be overpriced, at stupid rents with most of the money spent on buying up tiny parcels of land at obscene prices. Besides it would take 5 years to get through planning.

Bottom line - China have a functional economy, we have a super-bloated, job losing, debt loaded wreck which needs 100'bs of money forced down its throat to even maintain the pretence that it is still functional. Which is all it is -pretence.

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Bottom line - China have a functional economy, we have a super-bloated, job losing, debt loaded wreck which needs 100'bs of money forced down its throat to even maintain the pretence that it is still functional. Which is all it is -pretence.

Really? China has huge structural problems, different to the West's but huge problems.

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Really? China has huge structural problems, different to the West's but huge problems.

They seem to have no problem in wiping out competition.

So, in comparison their problems are getting better whereas........................

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