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Joey Buttafueco Jr

Questions On Bull Or Bear Status

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1. Should you be comparing yourself to others on this site, or those in the general population when deciding whether you are bull or bear?

2. What happens if you are

i) Neutral in short term (1 year - Government have done enough to stop the slide_

ii). Negative in medium term (1-10 years - fundamentals are still dire)

ii). Positive over long term (10+ years - housing tracks earnings)

3. Negative on house prices but positive on other things (FTSE etc)

4. What happens if the facts change - should you base your views on what you think should happen or what is actually happening (confirmation bias)

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Im a bear because prices are way too high and prices are going to return to normal.

housing is not like shares in that you cant day trade, or week trade or month trade.

it costs around £7000 to make a trade.

I will turn bull when prices are at a level that normal people can pay for.

in fact, I suppose I am a bear because of the state to the economy...housing being the driver so if I really think about it, my personal label is down to the boom and bust cycle.

so maybe I am a bust rather than a boom.

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I am a bull because its different this time. Our economy is in safe hands and our Government have taken steps to ensure that the UK remains the most successfull nation in the history of equity withdrawel.

Going forward I predict house prices to rise by an average of 15% each year until 2030 and unemployment to rise to around 25m over the next decade. The pope will convert to become Church of England as he is sick of hangers on like the Blair family, and the Queen will abdicate to marry Rowan Keating, and Prince Charles will be excluded from the throne for impgregnating Katie Price at the Playboy Mansion on a drunken night out with the lads.

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Everyone is telling me to buy a house now. So Im still a bear.

The time to buy a house I suppose is when the last bull has turned. I used to be a long term bull, but a cyclical bear, but I'm increasingly suspecting there will be no `real` recover.

Probably short term bubbles over a long term down trend. We are probably in one of those bubbles now.

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Yeah I am pretty much what you said, short term negative, medium term neutral, long term very positive on property. I am bearish pretty much every single risk asset in the short term because I do believe that equity markets are experiencing a bear market rally and that the real economy is going to worsen dramatically from here still.

That said I still think that makes me a bull vs most people here, plus I like to argue. :lol:

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Guest Daddy Bear

I was very bearish from 2005 onwards on stocks, housing, commodities - expecting a big deflationary collapse

I am still very bearish on property in REAL TERMS OVER THE LONG TERM

I am exceedingly BULLISH on Property Stocks and comodities in NOMINAL TERMS in the near future

You may not know this but I am expecting massive HYPERINFLATION

Edited by Daddy Bear

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Yeah I am pretty much what you said, short term negative, medium term neutral, long term very positive on property. I am bearish pretty much every single risk asset in the short term because I do believe that equity markets are experiencing a bear market rally and that the real economy is going to worsen dramatically from here still.

That said I still think that makes me a bull vs most people here, plus I like to argue. :lol:

a house is just a house.

to turn it into an investment is a not a path to the land of milk and honey.

indeed, to "invest" in a property for capital gain should be totally criminal, and profits taxed at 100%.

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It seems that most bulls and bears on the forum are VIs. Many bulls are BTLers any many of the bears are STRs. The UK housing market is currently neither. Prices are now around trend and look to be stabilizing.

The uber-bears here are understandably angry that the Government policies have cushioned the crash and that the apocalyptic events they predicted for the market are not happening. They feel that high prices are somehow unfair and are hoping for a crash so they can buy a cheap property. The last crash saw spiralling interest rates due to ERM and repossessions and I don’t think this will happen again.

The VI bulls have no real evidence that the market is set to take off against the current economic background. It may happen but I rather doubt it.

I suppose the title of this website is bound to lead to polarized debate, but I do not necessarily think that it makes for informed opinion. Most people are surely bulls in a bull market and bears in a bear market. I would not waste too much time anticipating an extreme of either for UK housing over the next couple of years.

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I am a bull because its different this time. Our economy is in safe hands and our Government have taken steps to ensure that the UK remains the most successfull nation in the history of equity withdrawel.

Going forward I predict house prices to rise by an average of 15% each year until 2030 and unemployment to rise to around 25m over the next decade. The pope will convert to become Church of England as he is sick of hangers on like the Blair family, and the Queen will abdicate to marry Rowan Keating, and Prince Charles will be excluded from the throne for impgregnating Katie Price at the Playboy Mansion on a drunken night out with the lads.

No, you are wrong, it's Ronan not Rowan!

:rolleyes:

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I was very bearish from 2005 onwards on stocks, housing, commodities - expecting a big deflationary collapse

I am still very bearish on property in REAL TERMS OVER THE LONG TERM

I am exceedingly BULLISH on Property Stocks and comodities in NOMINAL TERMS in the near future

You may not know this but I am expecting massive HYPERINFLATION

I'm starting to develop a similar view. If we don't see a repeat stock market crash within the next 3-6 months I think I may have to look at buying a house again.

The crash can play out in 2 ways, 1) nominal + real crash, or 2) nominal standstill + real crash. In the second of these scenarios, you might as well have some debt and hope it gets eroded by inflation and pay rises. Of course the pay rises bit still looks hard for now for most, but I recall distinctly from the last crash that bankers pay started taking off again which unfortunately seems to have started repeating. Other salaries only followed much later.

On the wage rises front I know many have had cuts and job loses, but this is not the case for everyone, I myself have recently secured a large rise by changing jobs. But generally I think things will feel rubbish for the majority for at least another 2 years.

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Just change it Noel. You've been on the fence for a long time.

I don't read too much into the label other than a general feel for a persons sentiment.

Noel, I would say you have been bullish on the FTSE for as long as I remember, and mildly bearish on house prices for as long as I remember.

You don't need a tag dude.. we know you ;)

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It seems that most bulls and bears on the forum are VIs. Many bulls are BTLers any many of the bears are STRs. The UK housing market is currently neither. Prices are now around trend and look to be stabilizing.

The uber-bears here are understandably angry that the Government policies have cushioned the crash and that the apocalyptic events they predicted for the market are not happening. They feel that high prices are somehow unfair and are hoping for a crash so they can buy a cheap property. The last crash saw spiralling interest rates due to ERM and repossessions and I don’t think this will happen again.

The VI bulls have no real evidence that the market is set to take off against the current economic background. It may happen but I rather doubt it.

I suppose the title of this website is bound to lead to polarized debate, but I do not necessarily think that it makes for informed opinion. Most people are surely bulls in a bull market and bears in a bear market. I would not waste too much time anticipating an extreme of either for UK housing over the next couple of years.

Good post, apart from your initial premise of prices being around trend. They are well above trend.

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...to "invest" in a property for capital gain should be totally criminal, and profits taxed at 100%.

With sensible planning control, whereby getting planning permission is no-longer like winning the lottery, and properly and sensibly controlled immigration, then housing would reach a natural, much lower, price level.

Then property development and investment would just be another part of a portfolio - and would be more a home than an investment,

The only reason prices are high is that housing conditions have been so engineered to benefit councils and governments who get more property tax, stamp duty, inheritance tax etc, and also for the bankers who are hand in glove with them.

In my view only a massive political change will really make a difference to house prices, as we can see currently with the way GB pulled a rabbit out of the hat to start house prices rising again, against all the predictions.

So, with the status quo as it is, I for one remain a bull.

[Edit: For me being a bull doesn't necessarily mean I agree with it, just that I think prices will rise]

Edited by webchat

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to "invest" in a property for capital gain should be totally criminal, and profits taxed at 100%.

If planning laws weren't so strict you wouldn't need to do that - massive floods of new builds would bring prices down. If you could just buy a plot of land anywhere and commission a house to be built on it, prices would be much lower (though the country might look a bit of a mess).

Anyway, I would have thought that we're looking over a medium term (1-5 year) time horizon, because obviously prices will rise in nominal terms over a long period just due to inflation. To me a Bull was someone who expected house price growth to exceed inflation over the next few years and a Bear someone who thought the opposite.

Looking at the "math" (as Mr Denninger would say) I feel I ought to be a Bear. But for all sorts of reasons people do NOT like to see the nominal value of their house fall, so would rather not trade than sell at a nominal loss. As a result i expect low housing market activity for some years until inflation has "caught up".

Of course if Daddy Bear is right, inflation will catch up quickly.

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untitled.JPG

Does this count?

Just remember that the trend line is affected by the data - it isn't fixed. If prices fall further the trend line will also fall and, retrospectively we will in August 2009 be above trend.

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Just remember that the trend line is affected by the data - it isn't fixed. If prices fall further the trend line will also fall and, retrospectively we will in August 2009 be above trend.

The chart shows we are around trend, which is applied from 1975. It can't change a great deal on a few quarters variations. As I see it, the chart is correct and prices are around trend.

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Guest Barebear

BEAR and never wavered since 2005.

We need to go back to the equivalent of 2000 prices for me to turn bullish. What figure that is when everythings taken into consideration is probably average house price = 110- 120 K.

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The chart shows we are around trend, which is applied from 1975. It can't change a great deal on a few quarters variations. As I see it, the chart is correct and prices are around trend.

The line is meaningless. It says nothing about the market conditions, either back in 1975 or now. It says nothing about wages, unemployment, savings, foreign investment, imiigration etc.

By all means, base your opinions on it though. You might as well pick a Daily Mail headline and say "houses only go up"

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The line is meaningless. It says nothing about the market conditions, either back in 1975 or now. It says nothing about wages, unemployment, savings, foreign investment, imiigration etc.

By all means, base your opinions on it though. You might as well pick a Daily Mail headline and say "houses only go up"

The line represents the trend in house prices since 1975. You earlier stated that prices are above trend. I posted a chart from Nationwide showing houses are around trend. If you would kindly post your chart to support your earlier post I would be interested to look at it.

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Bull, because prices will rise/be neutral in the short/medium term (3-6 months). The government is going to do everything it can to try to keep people happy until the next election, since the majority "own" their house. BOE and government policy at the moment seems ideally suited to creating a short term bubble IMHO.

Long term bear, because prices are clearly not consistent with affordability and have been propped up by copious amounts of low cost credit. This is going to unwind sooner or later.

Bull or bear means nothing without timescale qualification, after all, no one believes prices are going to rise/fall forever do they...?

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