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19,000 Shops Closed This Year,cre Implosion Imminent

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'About 12,000 independent shops and nearly 7,000 branches of major chains have closed so far this year in England and Wales, according to research.

The Local Data Company (LDC) says the average retail vacancy rate has risen from 4% a year ago to almost 12% now.

The collapse of Woolworths has had a major impact on high streets, LDC said, with about 70% of its 800-plus shops still lying empty

At 22%, Derby has the highest retail vacancy rate of any major urban centre, with Wolverhampton close behind.

In central London, 12.8% of shops are empty

The study said there had been a 50% drop in new store openings in the past 18 months and in some areas, a marked increase "churn" - where a shop is opened and closed repeatedly under new guises.

The highest churn rate, more than 700%, was found in Wakefield, West Yorkshire, with the next worst - Wolverhampton - seeing a rise of 387%.'

all I can say is get ready for more.our economy60-70% based on services.all around there's empty offices

,warehouses etc.sooner or later,the pension funds and banks who invested in or made loans on these worthless shells,will have to start marking them to market on their books.

for me the real fireselling will be in CRE.people need homes,councils will buy up cheap stock for social housing,but who's gonna buy all the overcapacity in offices and retail.You could house people in it I guess.But more people will work from home,or extend a garage for 10-15k instead of hiring office space at 5-10k per annum.

As yet,there's no big backlog of forced sellers,but my view is that they will come as the loan costs and business rates force them to offload.all these empty shops bring liabilites that aren't financed by incoming rent.then once the snowball starts downhill it will be a race to the bottom and it will be far more severe than residential.

Some types of CRE in some areas,90% from peak

I hear what you are saying, but note the companion piece:


a lot of it is older shopping space becoming secondary due to new developments (over development obviously)

the curious thing to me is who owns all these secondary properties - is it private individuals?

as to your last point it has laready been more severe than residential - 45% fall vs c.20%

I think we kinda agreedthere is more to come (though we dont agree about how much more) but its worth thinking about a target level at which commerical real estate becomes attractive

Underlined point, some 75%+ falls in CRE, yes, and maybe some similar residential falls too (btl slaveboxes in secondary city centres)

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