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I Told You So

The Pound

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The way I see it the £ is hugely overvalued at the moment, the GDP figures are way off target and Darling's estimate of £175bn of debt this year is going to be way out. Unemployment still soaring etc etc etc

Surely the markets are going to wake up to this soon, leading to a run on the £ and desperate IR hikes?????

October

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The way I see it the £ is hugely overvalued at the moment, the GDP figures are way off target and Darling's estimate of £175bn of debt this year is going to be way out. Unemployment still soaring etc etc etc

Surely the markets are going to wake up to this soon, leading to a run on the £ and desperate IR hikes?????

October

YAWN

Where have you been for the last 10 months? This topic has been done to death.

Hugely overvalued? :lol::lol::lol:

Your mistake: you cannot look at the UK situation in isolation when making forecasts on FX rates.

US/Eurozone/japan are in big trouble as well.

Cn't be bothered to go over it again for the 1,000 th time - just have a look at this thread from today

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=121386

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The way I see it the £ is hugely overvalued at the moment, the GDP figures are way off target and Darling's estimate of £175bn of debt this year is going to be way out. Unemployment still soaring etc etc etc

Surely the markets are going to wake up to this soon, leading to a run on the £ and desperate IR hikes?????

October

I reckon interest rates should already be higher to protect the pound. It's already lost a lot of ground in the last year or so to almost every ccy there is.....unfortunately though I think you are probably right that there is further to go. I think when the dust has settled from the global recession europe has a strong enough base to the economies to recover quickly (particularly Germany and France) - all the UK has is a badly damaged Fin Services industry and a mountain of publis debt!

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Are you taking the piss????? :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

No he's not. Fair value is $1.55 to $1.72. Euro value at least 1.22.

Even with where debt is projected to go, we're better off than every developed country. Their debt has its own dynamics and if we go to 80-90% of GDP, so will everyone else - or worse.

We still export 4xx billion a year and we're still energy-neutral.

Although the tax take has collapsed and public spending cuts will crush the commercials, it's the same all over the world.

China and asia will bounce for a year at best.

Then we're all flatlining. The first out will probably be the US - in which case the pound will look week against the dollar again - but the Eurozone may be stuck in it for decades.

And remember - unemployment is worse in the US, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, etc, etc, etc...

Edited by AvidFan

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Are you taking the piss????? :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

no top 7 Manufacturing Nations in the world in Billions, for a small nation we manufacture 1/3rd of what China does! Germany is ahead of us (but they are fkd), Italy is on a parr but they are courrupt. The rest of Europe is well behind. The cost of living and wages in Europe is now sky high.

Like prev poster says we are also energy neutral, we use the same amount of energy in £s as we dig up/pipe out but we export lots and import lots. (in the past we used less than we dug up/piped up)

Top7Manufacturers.jpg

post-552-1249036563_thumb.jpg

Edited by moosetea

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no top 7 Manufacturing Nations in the world in Billions, for a small nation we manufacture 1/3rd of what China does! Germany is ahead of us (but they are fkd), Italy is on a parr but they are courrupt. The rest of Europe is well behind. The cost of living and wages in Europe is now sky high.

What are the axes on your graph ???

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What are the axes on your graph ???

Billions of Dollars, and time, the source data came from a post a year back on this forum, but I cant be bother to go through my 7k posts!

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IMHO the pound is vastly undervalued against the Euro/Dollar... We are still one of the worlds leading manufacturers...

It sounds strange but despite the zanu labours best efforts to destroy us we are somehow still a leading maufacturer nation. We would be even stronger with good government.

Look at pharmaceuticals, security/arms, engineering we're still good. Of course it may not last, but compared to our european neighbours we're in a good posotion. Of course thats pure luck and its the reason why sterling will do OK.

At least we know our bankers are fraudsters as the americans do. But there are big chunks of europe who think their banks are sound...f***wits!!

I think if we can get more competitive and undo some of the damage to our education system we are in position to do very well.

But thats optimism for you!!

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We still export 4xx billion a year and we're still energy-neutral.

A sentence that uses "still" like generally implies a worsening situation, even if its writer intended to be encouraging ... if the benefit were expected to continue, the word would be omitted.

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