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Confounded

How Rattled Are The Bears?

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I ran a Poll earlier in the spring and got the following results, just interested to see how the ground has changed. I was amazed at the resolution giving the ramping going on but has it lasted?

picture1v.jpg

I have been a big bear right from the start, my stance has not changed at all over the last 3 years, the latest data if anything shows how much of a mess the UK has become, at least the US is taking it medicine and probably getting close to it's bottom already, even if it languishes there for many years at they can start to rebuild their economy around it.

Edited by Confounded

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You can almost guarantee that any 'bear turning bull' votes will be from one of the recent forum arrivals

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Guest X-QUORK

Would've gone Big Bear, but I decided it sounded a bit too homo-erotic.

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All the indicators are that we're in a horrible economic mess and it won't be getting cleared up any time soon. A couple of months of slightly less negative housing statistics and a lot of newspaper property ramping headlines don't do anything to alter the underlying situation. So I'm Bearing it all the way!

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Would've gone Big Bear, but I decided it sounded a bit too homo-erotic.

Not rattled just so p!ssed off. The bears had won and all the greedy bulls had lost. Then the government stepped in and said actually we can't let the bulls lose. I just can't believe the state that labour are getting this country in to keep this bubble inflated. It is just insane. I love this country but I really can't see any alternative other than leaving. I hope the bulls will be happy in their slave boxes in a third world country.

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Would've gone Big Bear, but I decided it sounded a bit too homo-erotic.

:lol:

Actually, I did that too.

What is the difference between a big bear & solid bear OP?

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perhaps the poll should ask

How bearish will you be when the QE stops?

Or

How bearish will you be when QE stops, the budget has to be balanced and debt repayment started?

:ph34r:

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You can almost guarantee that any 'bear turning bull' votes will be from one of the recent forum arrivals

Personally I'm a puzzled bear :unsure:

I cant see what the stock market is getting so excited about? :unsure:

The US and UK consumers have to pay down debt and save more against the risk of job loss

Our governments have to dramtically cut back their spending to balance their books

Interest rates can only go up from here, surely? :blink:

What is going to provide engine of demand for goods and services to replace falling government stimulus in the near future?

Maths tell me it can't be China (Chinese GDP USD 4.3Tr, USD GDP USD 14.3Tr, UK GDP 2.7Tr)....

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some choice quotes to keep the bears happy

September 1929

"There is no cause to worry. The high tide of prosperity will continue." — Andrew W. Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury.

October 14, 1929

"Secretary Lamont and officials of the Commerce Department today denied rumors that a severe depression in business and industrial activity was impending, which had been based on a mistaken interpretation of a review of industrial and credit conditions issued earlier in the day by the Federal Reserve Board." — New York Times

December 5, 1929

"The Government's business is in sound condition." — Andrew W. Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury

December 28, 1929

"Maintenance of a general high level of business in the United States during December was reviewed today by Robert P. Lamont, Secretary of Commerce, as an indication that American industry had reached a point where a break in New York stock prices does not necessarily mean a national depression." — Associated Press dispatch.

January 13, 1930

"Reports to the Department of Commerce indicate that business is in a satisfactory condition, Secretary Lamont said today." - News item.

January 21, 1930

"Definite signs that business and industry have turned the corner from the temporary period of emergency that followed deflation of the speculative market were seen today by President Hoover. The President said the reports to the Cabinet showed the tide of employment had changed in the right direction." - News dispatch from Washington.

January 24, 1930

"Trade recovery now complete President told. Business survey conference reports industry has progressed by own power. No Stimulants Needed! Progress in all lines by the early spring forecast." - New York Herald Tribune.

March 8, 1930

"President Hoover predicted today that the worst effect of the crash upon unemployment will have been passed during the next sixty days." - Washington Dispatch.

May 1, 1930

"While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed the worst and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There is one certainty of the future of a people of the resources, intelligence and character of the people of the United States - that is, prosperity." - President Hoover

June 29, 1930

"The worst is over without a doubt." - James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor.

August 29, 1930

"American labor may now look to the future with confidence." - James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor.

September 12, 1930

"We have hit bottom and are on the upswing." - James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor.

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Not rattled just so p!ssed off. The bears had won and all the greedy bulls had lost. Then the government stepped in and said actually we can't let the bulls lose. I just can't believe the state that labour are getting this country in to keep this bubble inflated. It is just insane. I love this country but I really can't see any alternative other than leaving. I hope the bulls will be happy in their slave boxes in a third world country.

Ditto, i'm also hacked-off. I had optimistically believed last year that we would be surveying the wreckage of our housing market by now. Nothing's changed, my stance hasn't changed, all that has happened is we will have to wait f-ing longer to buy at sensible levels. Bull-sh1t.

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Or

How bearish will you be when QE stops, the budget has to be balanced and debt repayment started?

:ph34r:

or

How bearish will you be when your tax is 60% (?) of you income?

edit - standard rate tax, that is.

Edited by nixy

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I'm cautious, but not losing the faith..yet. We should have a clear picture by January 2010!

It all depends on how long interest rates can remain artificially low. A quick look at many 5 year fixes, and the majority remain fixed at over 6%! This says it all really. The longer this charade lingers the worse it will be for everyone, bear and bull alike. If they'd let the market correct itself six years ago, we'd of been at the other side by now.

I really fear that many will remain priced out, and those that have recently taken the plunge will be hit by sky high interest rates!

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Not rattled at all. Couldn't afford a house 2 years ago, and I still can't afford a house now. No change there, then.

On the up side, I don't owe anything to anyone, which is a nice warm glowy feeling... ;)

Edited by SpewLabour

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Solid Bear

was well p1ssed off with the Nationwide news yesterday and the sustainability of this recent uptick in the housing market ,

we've had a few months of 'seasonal stabilisation' but i'm 100% confidant this will not last as the UK gets flushed further down the sh1tter .

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I've actually been edging towards the Bear position, partly based on the rising unemployment figures and the dire jobs market. People in my industry (IT) say things always pick up in September, but I'll believe that when I see it. What concerns me now is the termination date of the lower rate VAT and the car subsidy. Will the govt. be able to stop these measures?

Another funny thing - the last chance for this Labour administration to make a decent hash of the next election (and they still won't win, just maybe prevent a large Tory majority) will be a surprise snap election this autumn - while they can still pretend that we've bottomed out and things are going to improve again. The economic situation could be so much worse by next year, so Labour really should go for an election soon. Of course Gordon the bottler won't do this.

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I ran a Poll earlier in the spring and got the following results, just interested to see how the ground has changed. I was amazed at the resolution giving the ramping going on but has it lasted?

picture1v.jpg

I have been a big bear right from the start, my stance has not changed at all over the last 3 years, the latest data if anything shows how much of a mess the UK has become, at least the US is taking it medicine and probably getting close to it's bottom already, even if it languishes there for many years at they can start to rebuild their economy around it.

If you're doing a comparison, why change the categories?

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Guest Steve Cook
Not rattled at all. Couldn't afford a house 2 years ago, and I still can't afford a house now. No change there, then.

On the up side, I don't owe anything to anyone, which is a nice warm glowy feeling... ;)

yep

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If you're doing a comparison, why change the categories?

Not a scientific comparison added and changed categories because I felt it improved the poll. If I do the poll again it will be kept consistent from now on.

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Personally I'm a puzzled bear :unsure:

I cant see what the stock market is getting so excited about? :unsure:

The US and UK consumers have to pay down debt and save more against the risk of job loss

Our governments have to dramtically cut back their spending to balance their books

Interest rates can only go up from here, surely? :blink:

What is going to provide engine of demand for goods and services to replace falling government stimulus in the near future?

Maths tell me it can't be China (Chinese GDP USD 4.3Tr, USD GDP USD 14.3Tr, UK GDP 2.7Tr)....

+1

I know it can't last but cannot for the life of me understand why it started in the first place. I've now joined the tinfoil hat crew - the only end I can see for this sorry mess now is a total breakdown in civilisation as we know it.

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