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Jonnybegood

People Are Too Greedy On The Up And Down

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Due to the nature of this website it is mainly bears who post, however what I have seen in the real world and from many posts on here over the past 12mths is greed from both those selling at the top and those buying at the bottom.

When people were asking high prices for their property they were slatted on here as greedy etc, then prices starting falling, flats upto 60% and general property upto 30% at auction and around 15% average on the open market.

In the early days of panic, bank bail outs, banking shares nose diving, large redundancy announcements, overnight pulling of credit, daily gloomy reports in the media house prices took a hit with many bargains popping up here and there from overstretched BTL, new builds etc.

But I was still hearing from those looking to buy, it may fall further, 20%, I will wait for 30%, still not the time to buy, this is only the start etc.

Now many are moaning that prices are rising and the bottom maybe missed (at least for now).

I do not think the last of falls have been seen but any price falls over the winter months may only be enough to wipe out any gains made over the spring/summer months and with fewer transactions over winter and less property being marketed the falls will be based on a very low sales figure.

When you are looking to buy the timing is everything, I still believe that property needs to fall an average 25% in total from peak but this I feel will be over a period of 5 years to 2012, those who currently rent have maybe sacrificed buying a few months ago in favour of a further 10% fall, which will almost be wiped out by the continuing rent that needs to be paid over the next few years before that 10% further fall is realised.

The same can be said for the stock market as many of good buying opportunities seem to have passed and people are now kicking themselves they did not stock up on banking shares.

I bought a new TV 3 months ago and a mate of mine at the time said he would wait for it to fall further, it has in fact increased in value by £120.

I don't think its wise to wait and buy when everyone else tells you too, because by then its too late.

Buy when you feel you are getting value for money and most importantly you can afford to buy it, greed both ways up or down will end in tears.

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I don't think its wise to wait and buy when everyone else tells you too, because by then its too late.

Buy when you feel you are getting value for money and most importantly you can afford to buy it, greed both ways up or down will end in tears.

Plenty of sheeple out there who feel that now is a great time to buy.

None of them can finance it.

It really doesn't matter what th housing market does, the ideological underpinnings of the last system just failed catastrophically and our Great Leader can think of nothing to do but try and pretend nothing happened.

At the moment the world leaders are simply ignoring the real problems hoping that if they close their eyes and wish hard enough everything will get all better.

The banks are still in dire straits, they can only report profit because of fraudulent book keeping.

China isn't recovering, it is blowing a stock bubble using 56% GDP.

Meanwhile, people are still losing jobs, businesses still closing, shops not selling.

The time to buy is when there is a realistic plan in place to move forward, the real economy is stabilised and the toxic crap is flushed from the system. (And you can finance it ofc)

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Due to the nature of this website it is mainly bears who post, however what I have seen in the real world and from many posts on here over the past 12mths is greed from both those selling at the top and those buying at the bottom.

..

I don't think its wise to wait and buy when everyone else tells you too, because by then its too late.

Buy when you feel you are getting value for money and most importantly you can afford to buy it, greed both ways up or down will end in tears.

It's not a case of greed - houses are grossly overvalued (still) and buying one entails taking on a large amount of debt for most people.

If prices correct to the level thatlogic suggests they will, then that will put a lot of people underwater, financially. Couple that with a shaky economy (precipitated by the credit boom which had a symbiotic relationship with HPI) and that means potential financial ruin.

I'm therefore not being greedy by wishing to avoid borrowing tens of thousands of pounds more than I have to, in order to buy a house at this point. It's a case of financial sense and caution.

Maybe you are so super-rich that it's all a game to you and a few thousands here or there means nothing.

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When things were looking rosy, I could have put in a load of our STR proceeds to buy a big chunk of a fairly expensive house and take on an eye-watering mortgage, with 4% going in stamp duty and another pile of money in fees to solicitors and removal men.

Now, as an IT contractor, with no certainty of work for a long time after December, I need to remain in cash in order to be sure I can feed and clothe my family.

I see that as a cautious approach rather than greed.

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...

The time to buy is when there is a realistic plan in place to move forward, ....

The best time to buy is when people are so desperate to sell they will take anything.

If you're looking for an "investment" property this is a while off.

The best time to buy somewhere to live is when you have found somewhere you like at a price you can afford. (This will vary according to you and where you live and what you can afford so I make no further comment)

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Due to the nature of this website it is mainly bears who post, however what I have seen in the real world and from many posts on here over the past 12mths is greed from both those selling at the top and those buying at the bottom.

When people were asking high prices for their property they were slatted on here as greedy etc, then prices starting falling, flats upto 60% and general property upto 30% at auction and around 15% average on the open market.

In the early days of panic, bank bail outs, banking shares nose diving, large redundancy announcements, overnight pulling of credit, daily gloomy reports in the media house prices took a hit with many bargains popping up here and there from overstretched BTL, new builds etc.

But I was still hearing from those looking to buy, it may fall further, 20%, I will wait for 30%, still not the time to buy, this is only the start etc.

Now many are moaning that prices are rising and the bottom maybe missed (at least for now).

I do not think the last of falls have been seen but any price falls over the winter months may only be enough to wipe out any gains made over the spring/summer months and with fewer transactions over winter and less property being marketed the falls will be based on a very low sales figure.

When you are looking to buy the timing is everything, I still believe that property needs to fall an average 25% in total from peak but this I feel will be over a period of 5 years to 2012, those who currently rent have maybe sacrificed buying a few months ago in favour of a further 10% fall, which will almost be wiped out by the continuing rent that needs to be paid over the next few years before that 10% further fall is realised.

The same can be said for the stock market as many of good buying opportunities seem to have passed and people are now kicking themselves they did not stock up on banking shares.

I bought a new TV 3 months ago and a mate of mine at the time said he would wait for it to fall further, it has in fact increased in value by £120.

I don't think its wise to wait and buy when everyone else tells you too, because by then its too late.

Buy when you feel you are getting value for money and most importantly you can afford to buy it, greed both ways up or down will end in tears.

You're wrong :lol:

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Many don't have a concept of 'value for money' even if it costs them a huge chunk of their income indefinitely, and they find out they could still be living and paying for it for no fixed term. ;)

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Due to the nature of this website it is mainly bears who post, however what I have seen in the real world and from many posts on here over the past 12mths is greed from both those selling at the top and those buying at the bottom.

When people were asking high prices for their property they were slatted on here as greedy etc, then prices starting falling, flats upto 60% and general property upto 30% at auction and around 15% average on the open market.

In the early days of panic, bank bail outs, banking shares nose diving, large redundancy announcements, overnight pulling of credit, daily gloomy reports in the media house prices took a hit with many bargains popping up here and there from overstretched BTL, new builds etc.

But I was still hearing from those looking to buy, it may fall further, 20%, I will wait for 30%, still not the time to buy, this is only the start etc.

Now many are moaning that prices are rising and the bottom maybe missed (at least for now).

I do not think the last of falls have been seen but any price falls over the winter months may only be enough to wipe out any gains made over the spring/summer months and with fewer transactions over winter and less property being marketed the falls will be based on a very low sales figure.

When you are looking to buy the timing is everything, I still believe that property needs to fall an average 25% in total from peak but this I feel will be over a period of 5 years to 2012, those who currently rent have maybe sacrificed buying a few months ago in favour of a further 10% fall, which will almost be wiped out by the continuing rent that needs to be paid over the next few years before that 10% further fall is realised.

The same can be said for the stock market as many of good buying opportunities seem to have passed and people are now kicking themselves they did not stock up on banking shares.

I bought a new TV 3 months ago and a mate of mine at the time said he would wait for it to fall further, it has in fact increased in value by £120.

I don't think its wise to wait and buy when everyone else tells you too, because by then its too late.

Buy when you feel you are getting value for money and most importantly you can afford to buy it, greed both ways up or down will end in tears.

Err there are a few basic rules you need to remember on here :

i) If a seller wants a higher price that a buyer wants to pay, then the seller is being greedy. The buyer is never being unreasonable.

ii) A buyer always has the moral high ground. The buyer clearly has a more worthy claim to owning the house than the seller.

iii) A buyer will always put the money saved on a purchase to a better use than the seller, who will just greedily hoard it, or spend it on nonsense.

iv) Landlords are scum.

v) EA's are worse than landlords. Don't cut them any slack because of the fact EA's act in the interests of the seller and within the law in trying to get the best price for the house. Don't blame the government for doing nothing about the c**p sales process. Blame the participants.

vi) When you have finally bought your house, everything is of course reversed.

Hope that helps you understand.

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I don't think its wise to wait and buy when everyone else tells you too, because by then its too late.

Buy when you feel you are getting value for money and most importantly you can afford to buy it, greed both ways up or down will end in tears.

Lol!

I can't think of a time when people haven't been advising me to buy property. Buy before it's too late, buy while it's a bargain, buy before they go back up again.. It'll be nice when the "property is the magic investment" sentiment eventually dies.

As to whether now is really a good time to buy, I expect most would argue that it depends on your circumstances. For me it makes no sense.. the rent I pay is less than the interest on the money I would need to borrow. I don't expect that the type of house I wish to buy will appreciate much (if at all) over the next few years, so any money I save while renting comes off the amount I will eventually need to borrow.

If I had a huge STR fund and didn't trust investing in equities as a hedge I would probably start looking to buy this winter.

Unless this crash is truely unique, the main thing I have noticed in all previous crashes is that you have to work pretty hard to miss the bottom*.

eating_popcorn.gif

* As in, prices usually stagnate for a good few years before rampant inflation takes off again.

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Buy when you feel you are getting value for money

Unfortunately, we are a long, long way from getting value for money in nearly all markets worldwide. When the government turns off the tap (or has if forcibly removed) I'll consider buying.

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Due to the nature of this website it is mainly bears who post, however what I have seen in the real world and from many posts on here over the past 12mths is greed from both those selling at the top and those buying at the bottom.

When people were asking high prices for their property they were slatted on here as greedy etc, then prices starting falling, flats upto 60% and general property upto 30% at auction and around 15% average on the open market.

In the early days of panic, bank bail outs, banking shares nose diving, large redundancy announcements, overnight pulling of credit, daily gloomy reports in the media house prices took a hit with many bargains popping up here and there from overstretched BTL, new builds etc.

But I was still hearing from those looking to buy, it may fall further, 20%, I will wait for 30%, still not the time to buy, this is only the start etc.

Now many are moaning that prices are rising and the bottom maybe missed (at least for now).

I do not think the last of falls have been seen but any price falls over the winter months may only be enough to wipe out any gains made over the spring/summer months and with fewer transactions over winter and less property being marketed the falls will be based on a very low sales figure.

When you are looking to buy the timing is everything, I still believe that property needs to fall an average 25% in total from peak but this I feel will be over a period of 5 years to 2012, those who currently rent have maybe sacrificed buying a few months ago in favour of a further 10% fall, which will almost be wiped out by the continuing rent that needs to be paid over the next few years before that 10% further fall is realised.

The same can be said for the stock market as many of good buying opportunities seem to have passed and people are now kicking themselves they did not stock up on banking shares.

I bought a new TV 3 months ago and a mate of mine at the time said he would wait for it to fall further, it has in fact increased in value by £120.

I don't think its wise to wait and buy when everyone else tells you too, because by then its too late.

Buy when you feel you are getting value for money and most importantly you can afford to buy it, greed both ways up or down will end in tears.

the majority buy at the top and sell at the bottom, tis the nature of markets

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I don't think its wise to wait and buy when everyone else tells you too, because by then its too late.

Ofcourse not, that would be the herd mentanilty many of us are against.

I'll buy when I can afford too. And right now, I'm not even close.

But give it time.

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I don't think its wise to wait and buy when everyone else tells you too, because by then its too late.

Buy when you feel you are getting value for money and most importantly you can afford to buy it, greed both ways up or down will end in tears.

if this is truly the bursting of a credit bubble (i believe it is) then the worst investments are those that have leverage, the two most leveraged assets are , houses (10% deposit) and equities (maybe not through joe public, but derivatives are all about leverage) therefore they might seem cheap historically over the last 10 years, but they are astronomically priced if you look over 100 years which will give you prices pre credit bubble

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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The OP begins by making what I thought would grow into a strong statement about the fact that many bears on this site are merely playing the same game as the bulls they criticise, but somehow it got lost by the end of his post.

The notion of "bears" being the goodies and "bulls" being the baddies is something that lacks discussion here. As with the stock markets, many bears here are simply waiting for an opportunity to make a buck or two out of property and are effectively playing exactly the same game, except at different points in time, as the bulls. That might seem obvious, but particularly the market pros posting here are not, it seems, interested in any philosophical position about the desirability of reverting property back to its intended function, ie: as shelter, but simply waiting for the bottom of the market so they can start the whole boom bust process over again.

For that reason I am neither a bull nor a bear. Both positions are vulture like, exploitative and a variation on the same game of roulette.

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The best time to buy is when people are so desperate to sell they will take anything.

Fair point, but that needs a 'blood on the streets' event. Without one you will only get grudging sellers instead of desperate ones.

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I bought a new TV 3 months ago and a mate of mine at the time said he would wait for it to fall further, it has in fact increased in value by £120.

Er...not true. Your TV has decreased in value because it's now second hand. You have an asset that is worth less than you paid for it. That's fine, because you have the utility value of the TV, which you wanted. The ticket price for that particular model may have risen but it will be back on sale soon. There is no shortage of TVs as far as I know.

Technology prices have been falling for decades (distorting the RPI?). I can't see this stopping any time soon. So I'm sure your mate will be able to buy a TV (maybe not the identical model to you) at the same or lower price than you.

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The OP begins by making what I thought would grow into a strong statement about the fact that many bears on this site are merely playing the same game as the bulls they criticise, but somehow it got lost by the end of his post.

The notion of "bears" being the goodies and "bulls" being the baddies is something that lacks discussion here. As with the stock markets, many bears here are simply waiting for an opportunity to make a buck or two out of property and are effectively playing exactly the same game, except at different points in time, as the bulls. That might seem obvious, but particularly the market pros posting here are not, it seems, interested in any philosophical position about the desirability of reverting property back to its intended function, ie: as shelter, but simply waiting for the bottom of the market so they can start the whole boom bust process over again.

For that reason I am neither a bull nor a bear. Both positions are vulture like, exploitative and a variation on the same game of roulette.

Initially I had a lot of sympathy for your posting, but there is a lot of genuine anguish from a lot of wannabe FTBs (not me, I've been a homeowner a long time) who dislike the transitory nature of renting, but don't want to over indebt themselves to buy a decent place

(For evidence look at any thread about FTBs or twenty somethings)

Personally I have a lot of sympathy for them, while usually posting that they should stop whining and just wait it out

However, you are right in that there are also a number of greedy, scum sucking bottom fishers posting frequently on this site as well, who seem to engineer their whole lifestyles (if they are to be believed) towards generating prodigous amounts of cash using their amazing prescience (sp?)

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Why are bears being greedy?

Surely many people want prices to fall so that they can afford to buy something reasonable.

There are also many, like me, who want prices to fall because we only want to borrow an amount that can be paid back at "normal" interest rates - i.e. not wanting to screw myself financially is not the same as beng greedy.

I am sure that many bears just want a home to live in.

Edited by BlackSwan

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When things were looking rosy, I could have put in a load of our STR proceeds to buy a big chunk of a fairly expensive house and take on an eye-watering mortgage, with 4% going in stamp duty and another pile of money in fees to solicitors and removal men.

Now, as an IT contractor, with no certainty of work for a long time after December, I need to remain in cash in order to be sure I can feed and clothe my family.

I see that as a cautious approach rather than greed.

I'm in a similar position to you - IT contractor who's current contract ends in Nov. The co I work for have officially declared that they're not renewing contracts if at all possible from July onwards, and that permie staff who leave will not be replaced. The 1st half of this year was ok business wise, but the 2nd half looks tough, and 2010 is also looking tough. As a prudent kinda guy I have the liquid funds to weather the storm for a couple of years at least.

After this dead count bounce, financed via QE to get NuLab to the election next May(ish), then the pain will start all over again, hence continued beardom for me.

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I'm in a similar position to you - IT contractor who's current contract ends in Nov. The co I work for have officially declared that they're not renewing contracts if at all possible from July onwards, and that permie staff who leave will not be replaced. The 1st half of this year was ok business wise, but the 2nd half looks tough, and 2010 is also looking tough. As a prudent kinda guy I have the liquid funds to weather the storm for a couple of years at least.

After this dead count bounce, financed via QE to get NuLab to the election next May(ish), then the pain will start all over again, hence continued beardom for me.

Now don't all take this personally please :unsure:

I'm just surprised that banks would ever lend (any) contrctors much based on the fact that you only have short term employment?

Sure I buy you have skills etc., but fundamentally you dont have a full time job... :blink:

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In most cases need is actually greed anyway. My mate did his flat out day one 15k, 5 years later i sort the bathroom out 1k the only room we have done up. Both are greed, I do not need it to function but i feel I get a benefit from it.

My mate stays in watches TV, i like to go out and dance to a live band with the wife. He sees benefit staying in with wife and having a takeaway, I see benefit dancing with wife both cost the same.

One person views someone missing the boat, another sees it as a defensive position. Ive not had an interview for 3 months (Technician), i used to be snapped up in days sometimes without an interview OO. I am content with my years savings (not being eroded as yet), wife covering all bills plus enough to have holidays why would we jump into re-extending to a 3-3.5x (not that my salary counts :D ).

The problem with climbing that ladder is extra council tax, bill costs, travel costs (bigger homes tend to be further out) and also opens up your purse to buy more junk 2 garages drive to support more cars, more rooms to fill with fluff, big garden to plant out. Not forgetting all the time spent running the place. Nah your alright Mr Jones you can keep your £350k bargain :D.

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Now don't all take this personally please :unsure:

I'm just surprised that banks would ever lend (any) contrctors much based on the fact that you only have short term employment?

Sure I buy you have skills etc., but fundamentally you dont have a full time job... :blink:

No offence taken. But I think that very many nominally permanent staff are living in a fools paradise if they think they have a genuinely permanent job (I presume that's what you mean by full time?). Once the colours on the company spreadsheet turn red then you'll see how full time their jobs really are. I've seen many shell shocked full time jobbers stagger out of the boss's office with a P45!

I do have a full time job btw; I just know what its shelf life is. And of course I get paid more than most of the permie staff and prudently salt it away for a rainy day.

I don't need to lend from banks for the same reason and have no need of debt, other than a mortgage. And when I applied for one I put down a deposit of 60% LTV - so had no problem getting a loan from the bank at very good terms.

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No offence taken. But I think that very many nominally permanent staff are living in a fools paradise if they think they have a genuinely permanent job (I presume that's what you mean by full time?). Once the colours on the company spreadsheet turn red then you'll see how full time their jobs really are. I've seen many shell shocked full time jobbers stagger out of the boss's office with a P45!

I do have a full time job btw; I just know what its shelf life is. And of course I get paid more than most of the permie staff and prudently salt it away for a rainy day.

I don't need to lend from banks for the same reason and have no need of debt, other than a mortgage. And when I applied for one I put down a deposit of 60% LTV - so had no problem getting a loan from the bank at very good terms.

Yes, but you are putting down a 60% deposit, so the banks security is pretty good, no?

No doubt you personally have a good eanrings history...

My question is more whether the banks more racy offers, eg. 90% LTV+ or 4x earnings were and still are available to contractors and the self-employed?

(You do seem to be taking my question a bit personally, sorry ;) )

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