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deflation

Is The £ Strengthening Or The € Weakening?

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Speaking as a VI here, I want the £ to fall a bit yet because I have a sum of € I want to change into sterling.

Since 10am yesterday, the £ has risen 1.8 cents v the € but is it really the euro weakening following the poor economic news from Germany?

I know the £ is relatively low but I'm not sure what is propping it up from dropping back below 1.10 like it did in January and March. Do I need to be patient or it it only up versus the € from here?

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Speaking as a VI here, I want the £ to fall a bit yet because I have a sum of € I want to change into sterling.

Since 10am yesterday, the £ has risen 1.8 cents v the € but is it really the euro weakening following the poor economic news from Germany?

I know the £ is relatively low but I'm not sure what is propping it up from dropping back below 1.10 like it did in January and March. Do I need to be patient or it it only up versus the € from here?

It's all about timing.

In the short term, I suspect £ will struggle to strenghten beyond the 0.83-0-84 area.

Over the next 12-18 months, I expect the S will HTF big time in the Eurozone, and expect £ to recover at leat to 0.75

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In the great scheme of things I´d say the pound is presently undervalued. In terms of spending power (relative value) it should probably be trading in the 1.25-130 range.

That does not mean to say it will go up. The direction it takes is anybodys guess.

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I'm tending to agree with you. Yesterday the £ was slap back half way between the 52w low and the 52w high. I'm thinking I should have jumped then.

IMHO, the long term rate should be about €1.25. Still volatile at the moment of course.

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In the great scheme of things I´d say the pound is presently undervalued. In terms of spending power (relative value) it should probably be trading in the 1.25-130 range.

That does not mean to say it will go up. The direction it takes is anybodys guess.

I agree.

But the UK govt might like it to stay lower for a good while longer. A pound at the level suggested , 1.25-1.30 may slow down or choke off any export led recovery. Imports would be cheaper though :rolleyes:

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I know the £ is relatively low but I'm not sure what is propping it up from dropping back below 1.10 like it did in January and March. Do I need to be patient or it it only up versus the € from here?

£ has become a pawn in the global "green shoots vs depression" debate. Remember also that it's the summer, volumes are thin, moves sometimes exaggerated, irrational trends develop etc etc

Over the next 12-18 months, I expect the S will HTF big time in the Eurozone, and expect £ to recover at leat to 0.75

I really like this idea but I reckon we'll see some horrid turbulence in the UK gilt market before this happens, maybe coupled with some dreary economic figures in the US and a step back from current increased levels of risk appetite. You should have a better opportunity than right now to get out of the €

Best thing for you might be a sudden turnaround in the opinion polls- the market won't be keen on a hung parliament :lol:

If you don't agree with the above, you could always change some now and wait for a better rate for the remainder?

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If you don't agree with the above, you could always change some now and wait for a better rate for the remainder?

Fair enough, a bit of hedging.

But I'm not talking a fortune, about 60k. Still, a 1 cent move is over £500 less. Grrrrr.

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Fair enough, a bit of hedging.

But I'm not talking a fortune, about 60k. Still, a 1 cent move is over £500 less. Grrrrr.

Jeez, that IS a fortune. 95% of folks won't save that much in a lifetime of work.

(they might do via a pension plan, but this will not be liquid, available savings.....)

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It IS a lot of money to me which is why I'm paranoid about minor shifts in the exchange rate.

But in the context of many of the posters on here who know more about Xch rates that I've forgotten, and the ones who do it for a living, it's not a fortune. It is at least too much to do in cash, at least legally! £10k is your usual max in cash it seems.

Edited to add: You forget that many peope 'mewed' more than and blew it on 4x4s and Maldives diving holidays. I personally know one person who did, a builder who knew no better. He's bust now, and those that aren't could well be paying for that holiday and that 4x4 for 20 years or more.

Edited by deflation

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Jeez, that IS a fortune. 95% of folks won't save that much in a lifetime of work.

(they might do via a pension plan, but this will not be liquid, available savings.....)

It will be profits from the sale of a property at the peak.

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It will be profits from the sale of a property at the peak.

I wish. Stuck with didn't I, I saw and joined this site a little too late in the day to 'cash in.'

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In a similar position. Selling a house in France. If it sells that is. If it doesn't go this summer, might be taking another tumble on the leg down next year. Quite a bit more than €60k too assuming I'm not being too optimistic about the asking price.

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Its the £ strengthening in our treasurer's opinion. And the Euro weakening. Relative to each other

He also thinks the Euro will tank against EVERYTHING after the German election as there will be no benefit in hiding the calamitous state of their banking system, so all will be revealed and following off the record chats with other treasurers and our banking syndicate, he thinks what will be revealed is very ugly indeed...............

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Its the £ strengthening in our treasurer's opinion. And the Euro weakening. Relative to each other

He also thinks the Euro will tank against EVERYTHING after the German election as there will be no benefit in hiding the calamitous state of their banking system, so all will be revealed and following off the record chats with other treasurers and our banking syndicate, he thinks what will be revealed is very ugly indeed...............

I agree

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It's all about timing.

In the short term, I suspect £ will struggle to strenghten beyond the 0.83-0-84 area.

Over the next 12-18 months, I expect the S will HTF big time in the Eurozone, and expect £ to recover at leat to 0.75

Hmm I'd like to agree, still have too much sterling.

However while the Eurozone may have trouble ahead, I can't see how the UK will fare better unless the Euro actually starts to break up, which I don't think will happen.

I'm not sure enough of anything to make the move, there are so many different possibilities.

Any of the following could precipitate massive fluctuations in the pound/euro exchange rate :

1. Credit downgrade for the UK.

2. National and European-level banking bailouts on a large scale in Europe.

3. Large-scale unrest in Eurozone nations.

At the moment, the most likely of these looks to be number 1.

FFS, the Germans are talking about changing their constitution to make a high budget deficit illegal! How they manage to do business with the likes of the PIIGS and the UK(Labour-run) I don't know, the mentality is so different. This makes the situation unpredictable.

If I do change to Euros, I might insist on notes issued in Germany! :rolleyes:

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