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LuckyOne

Another Sign Of The Times ......

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I am a believer in trying to make my own assessment about the economy based on changes that I see in places that I don't go to too often (as change is more noticeable than in places that I go to daily) in addition to my take on eccomic statistics.

I took the Tube into the City to-day to meet a friend for lunch. I went to the same place at the same time on the same route two months ago on the same day of the week.

Three things were really obvious compared to two months ago :

- Advertising in both the Tube carriages and the Tube stations is way down.

- The restaurant only had "credit crunch specials". The a la carte menu was gone. There were far fewer diners.

- The carriages and stations were about as full as they were two months ago. Tourists have replaced workers to keep the numbers constant.

My observations are consistent with my investment theme at the moment. The market has popped because of cost cutting which makes bottom lines look better but cannot be repeated ad infinitum. The market has also popped because the inventory cuts in Q4/08 and Q1/09 were too harsh. They have were adjusted in Q2/09 and that weak support to the top line has also disappeared.

The harsh truth is that unemployment is rising, cost cutting continues but has approached its limit in the private sector and things are still very weak. The bull trap is nearing its end. Cost cutting in the public sector has to be next which will probably provide some impetus to the next leg lower.

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I am a believer in trying to make my own assessment about the economy based on changes that I see in places that I don't go to too often (as change is more noticeable than in places that I go to daily) in addition to my take on eccomic statistics.

I took the Tube into the City to-day to meet a friend for lunch. I went to the same place at the same time on the same route two months ago on the same day of the week.

Three things were really obvious compared to two months ago :

- Advertising in both the Tube carriages and the Tube stations is way down.

- The restaurant only had "credit crunch specials". The a la carte menu was gone. There were far fewer diners.

- The carriages and stations were about as full as they were two months ago. Tourists have replaced workers to keep the numbers constant.

My observations are consistent with my investment theme at the moment. The market has popped because of cost cutting which makes bottom lines look better but cannot be repeated ad infinitum. The market has also popped because the inventory cuts in Q4/08 and Q1/09 were too harsh. They have were adjusted in Q2/09 and that weak support to the top line has also disappeared.

The harsh truth is that unemployment is rising, cost cutting continues but has approached its limit in the private sector and things are still very weak. The bull trap is nearing its end. Cost cutting in the public sector has to be next which will probably provide some impetus to the next leg lower.

I've certainly noticed a few more 'To advertise here call Terry on...etc' type adverts on the tube and elsewhere.

I've also noticed that in the last year or so quite a few central London stations installed flat screen lcd ad panels up the escalators. The expense of this must have been enormous and I can't see how they could recoup it in the current downturn.

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Less TV advertising as well. Become aware that when watching late night telly over the last couple of weeks there are sometimes no ads, except for a feature of an upcoming show, at all. This is not just in the normal breaks but between actual TV programmes.

I also used to come onto the computer, which is in the next room to my TV, and could spend a couple of minutes looking at something. Now I barely sit down before I hear the programme is back on. This lack of advertising is severely messing with my computer browsing!

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I am a believer in trying to make my own assessment about the economy based on changes that I see in places that I don't go to too often (as change is more noticeable than in places that I go to daily) in addition to my take on eccomic statistics.

I took the Tube into the City to-day to meet a friend for lunch. I went to the same place at the same time on the same route two months ago on the same day of the week.

Three things were really obvious compared to two months ago :

- Advertising in both the Tube carriages and the Tube stations is way down.

- The restaurant only had "credit crunch specials". The a la carte menu was gone. There were far fewer diners.

- The carriages and stations were about as full as they were two months ago. Tourists have replaced workers to keep the numbers constant.

My observations are consistent with my investment theme at the moment. The market has popped because of cost cutting which makes bottom lines look better but cannot be repeated ad infinitum. The market has also popped because the inventory cuts in Q4/08 and Q1/09 were too harsh. They have were adjusted in Q2/09 and that weak support to the top line has also disappeared.

The harsh truth is that unemployment is rising, cost cutting continues but has approached its limit in the private sector and things are still very weak. The bull trap is nearing its end. Cost cutting in the public sector has to be next which will probably provide some impetus to the next leg lower.

"Tourists have replaced workers to keep the numbers constant."

Not convinced that the workers have shrunk by a noticeable amount recnetly but maybe that is because I travel every day

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"Tourists have replaced workers to keep the numbers constant."

Not convinced that the workers have shrunk by a noticeable amount recnetly but maybe that is because I travel every day

People on holiday and it's tourist season so yeah that is pretty normal. The advertising thing I've noticed as well.

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I've certainly noticed a few more 'To advertise here call Terry on...etc' type adverts on the tube and elsewhere.

I've also noticed that in the last year or so quite a few central London stations installed flat screen lcd ad panels up the escalators. The expense of this must have been enormous and I can't see how they could recoup it in the current downturn.

Some stations (probably Bank I think ) had mounted large projection TV's to show adverts opposite the platform. Should add to the heat in summer.

Maybe there are less people on the tube in the summer because the weather is better and the heat on the tube horrendous? I don't use the Tube enough to say.

I notice London buses have now removed their TV advertising screens. Clearly not a good idea.

Edited by HostPaul TAFKA Rover2000

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I've also noticed that in the last year or so quite a few central London stations installed flat screen lcd ad panels up the escalators. The expense of this must have been enormous and I can't see how they could recoup it in the current downturn.

I think the answer is that they didn't pay for them. That would be the company selling the ad space. Titan experience, if memory serves.

As a daily cyclist I have seen way more "fairweather" cyclists in London, this could explain lower tube numbers.

(edited to add anecdotal)

Edited by monty1080

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