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ralphmalph

Skipton Bs Calls Bottom Of Housing Market

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Interesting, may be not my view but I think this is the first lender to say they bottom is in (depending on unemployment) my view has always been that the govt can not stoke HPI but the lenders can and following on from my last post they seem to have the cash to do it. Perhaps interesting times in the property market are upon us.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...ing-market.html

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following in the footsteps of its northern stablemates HBOS, Bradford and Bingley, and Northern Rock.

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following in the footsteps of its northern stablemates HBOS, Bradford and Bingley, and Northern Rock.

Have you got a linky for these calling the bottom, I have not seen them. TIA.

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Interesting, may be not my view but I think this is the first lender to say they bottom is in (depending on unemployment) my view has always been that the govt can not stoke HPI but the lenders can and following on from my last post they seem to have the cash to do it. Perhaps interesting times in the property market are upon us.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...ing-market.html

How annoying would it be if this was the bottom? I still think there's a way to go due to my belief that on my current salary which around double the natonal average I should be able to afford (with my deposit) a large detached house in a very good area. And I can't yet. I refuse to believe there are many people out there in a better financial position than I am at the moment therefor if I ain't buying the very few are.

I guess if prices stagnate for 2 - 3 years my deposit would increase in size so I would be able to afford that house anyway as my mortgage would be smaller. That would piss me off too though.

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How annoying would it be if this was the bottom? I still think there's a way to go due to my belief that on my current salary which around double the natonal average I should be able to afford (with my deposit) a large detached house in a very good area. And I can't yet. I refuse to believe there are many people out there in a better financial position than I am at the moment therefor if I ain't buying the very few are.

I guess if prices stagnate for 2 - 3 years my deposit would increase in size so I would be able to afford that house anyway as my mortgage would be smaller. That would piss me off too though.

How much of a multiple do you require to buy?

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Have you got a linky for these calling the bottom, I have not seen them. TIA.

it's implicit in the fact they had no contingency for falling house prices - their actions - ie B&B pushing BTL mortgages HARD in 208 - were signalling a similar view

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it's implicit in the fact they had no contingency for falling house prices - their actions - ie B&B pushing BTL mortgages HARD in 208 - were signalling a similar view

Straws clutching methinks.

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Ahhhh................. banks.................

They are such astute financial organisations aren't they?

Pillars of society. Reliable. Honest.

And almost universally bankrupt due to their incompetence.

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How annoying would it be if this was the bottom? I still think there's a way to go due to my belief that on my current salary which around double the natonal average I should be able to afford (with my deposit) a large detached house in a very good area. And I can't yet. I refuse to believe there are many people out there in a better financial position than I am at the moment therefor if I ain't buying the very few are.

I guess if prices stagnate for 2 - 3 years my deposit would increase in size so I would be able to afford that house anyway as my mortgage would be smaller. That would piss me off too though.

Unless you have a very large deposit, I don't think it is reasonable to expect to buy a large detached house on twice the national average salary. Depending on your definition of large you are probably looking at the top 3-4% of the housing stock, and yes there are lots of people better off than you. According to the bbc, there were around 500k millionaires in 2007 - although that will be a fair bit lower now.

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I would not panic if your short! , As has been discussed regularly in recent months along with all the other issues on the horizon that are discussed daily, at some point our budget deficit will need to be addressed. I really think we need a separate thread on this, Do you know between 2005-2008 are deficit still averaged 60bn per year and that was in the good years. To close that gap to zero and pay just the additional interest bill on new debt is 90bn, that's an additional £3,000 per annum per household and that does not even include repayment of debt and the fact that our chances of returning to pre-crunch tax receipt percentages are slim to none. In reality we are talking much larger numbers, what will that do consumer expenditure? etc, etc. This issue cannot be ignored much longer and that in itself is enough to eliminate any chance of sustainable houseprice growth in the next five years. Put it this way, if we create another house price bubble, there is a 100% chance we as a nation will default in my opinion. We are a nation and government of debt junkies, until we admit our addition to debt, we can not start to fix the problems that lie ahead.....

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They're jumping the gun enormously. The report seems to suggest that they're calling the bottom based on what their estate agents are saying. That's a pretty unreliable indicator. It doesn't take much imagination to see why, but the reason for my skepticism is simple: house prices lag the economy in downturns. The economy is still shrinking. It wouldn't be the first time that a financial institution has made policy based on wishful thinking...

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How annoying would it be if this was the bottom? I still think there's a way to go due to my belief that on my current salary which around double the natonal average I should be able to afford (with my deposit) a large detached house in a very good area. And I can't yet. I refuse to believe there are many people out there in a better financial position than I am at the moment therefor if I ain't buying the very few are.

I guess if prices stagnate for 2 - 3 years my deposit would increase in size so I would be able to afford that house anyway as my mortgage would be smaller. That would piss me off too though.

Out of interest, how much are said houses going for at the moment, and what is classed as a "good area"?

Just asking because said statement can be classed as perfectly reasonable or outrageous fantasy depending on where you're looking to buy.

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Interesting, may be not my view

pull the other one. It's been your view for some time as far as i can see. Except you express this bullishness in posts regarding the improved figures coming out of the economic metrics. The housing market having turned is an extension of your beliefs about an intervention inspired turnaround....why don't you just admit it and stop dicking around ?

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pull the other one. It's been your view for some time as far as i can see. Except you express this bullishness in posts regarding the improved figures coming out of the economic metrics. The housing market having turned is an extension of your beliefs about an intervention inspired turnaround....why don't you just admit it and stop dicking around ?

My view on the economic turnaround (intervention) led is much different form many on here I agree. However that is different to my view on house prices. I will admit that I do not subscribe (as Doctor Bubb has posted a thread on) to using the old house price charts from the last crashes where interest rates were raised to cool HPI to one where the removal of credit and the lowering of rates to between 0% and 3.9% for 66% of the market. The causes are fundamentally different this time to last time so I do not see why history will provide us with the shape and figures for this one.

But I do like playing devils advocate a little to all the posters that say California is the best indicator to where we are going or depression is coming look at the 30's it is exactly the same now the charts prove it. This is different to just posting rightmove figures and saying HPC over prices in Aberdeen going back to 2007.

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