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Home Prices 'to Rise 50% By 2011'

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Home prices 'to rise 50% by 2011'

Affordability will remain a major headache for first-time buyers

Average house prices in England could rise from £195,000 to nearly £290,000 by 2011, research from Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF) has said.

Under-supply of new housing will fuel house price inflation, the OEF added.

Getting on the housing ladder will become even harder, it said, as house prices rise from eight times average salaries to 9.2 times in 2011.

David Orr, chief executive of the National Housing Federation, said there was a "crisis" of affordability.

"High house prices are already having a disastrous effect on local communities. People are unable to find a home in the area they grew up," Mr Orr said.

"Over the next five years we'll see home ownership being pushed further out of the reach of middle earners and even those on relatively high incomes," he added.

The Federation, which sponsored the OEF report, added that about 80,000 extra new homes needed to be built each year to boost supply and avert a dramatic rise in house prices.

However, the OEF's prediction goes against many other housing market forecasts.

The Halifax and Nationwide have both said that house price growth will be modest over the medium term, while research group Capital Economics has said that it expects prices to fall later in 2006.

LINKY

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5187398.stm

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The rate people are leaving this country they will be given the houses away.

Over 11 million people thinking of getting out in the next 2 years thats a big number.

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Ah, yes, a nice historic article there quoting one of the many associate bodies of the National Institute For Pressing The Equal Button A Lot.

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Oxford Economics - formerly Oxford Economic Forecasting - is a world-leader in quantitative analysis and rigorous economic forecasting. Our evidence-based approach to economic analysis helps businesses, governments and international organisations make the right investment, policy and market decisions.

Gordon was obviously listening to this outrageously cretinous 'organisation'.

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for the benefit of those of you who only skim read, subby the (i'm guessing) sub editor there was yanking your chain as the article was from July 2006 - so dont have nightmares

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Home prices 'to rise 50% by 2011'

Affordability will remain a major headache for first-time buyers

Average house prices in England could rise from £195,000 to nearly £290,000 by 2011, research from Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF) has said.

Under-supply of new housing will fuel house price inflation, the OEF added.

Getting on the housing ladder will become even harder, it said, as house prices rise from eight times average salaries to 9.2 times in 2011.

David Orr, chief executive of the National Housing Federation, said there was a "crisis" of affordability.

"High house prices are already having a disastrous effect on local communities. People are unable to find a home in the area they grew up," Mr Orr said.

"Over the next five years we'll see home ownership being pushed further out of the reach of middle earners and even those on relatively high incomes," he added.

The Federation, which sponsored the OEF report, added that about 80,000 extra new homes needed to be built each year to boost supply and avert a dramatic rise in house prices.

However, the OEF's prediction goes against many other housing market forecasts.

The Halifax and Nationwide have both said that house price growth will be modest over the medium term, while research group Capital Economics has said that it expects prices to fall later in 2006.

LINKY

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5187398.stm

:o

Unbelievable.

Although anyone who's been know to spout rubbish like 40% further falls is not qualified to comment on such articles IMO.

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Given that they are forward looking by two years, have they re-published their predictions from 2006 and 2007?

What did they predict then?

p-o-p

The daft b*stards were only predicting a 40% rise in Autumn '07. Much trumpeted Daily Wail Headline.

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this is an advocacy piece... the National Housing Federation campaigns for more affordable housing to be built, they correctly recognise that high house prices would have ruinous consequences for many people, so they ask a consulting firm to produce some nightmare forecasts that, they hope, will stimulate more housebuilding.

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they used the famous Bloo Loo prediction kit, supplied to VIs the world over.

a graph showing the last six months of figures, a straight ruler (precision graduated) and a pencil

simply place the precision ruler on the last three months figures and continue the line onward through time.

Bears need not apply.

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for the benefit of those of you who only skim read, subby the (i'm guessing) sub editor there was yanking your chain as the article was from July 2006 - so dont have nightmares

Thanks for that... it's worth pointing out again...

Edited by stew

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It's good to be reminded now of this supply and demand argument. Insidious to play on people's fears, and then attach some kind of respectability to this by dressing it up in economic "theory". I think of those people in the 1920s who frantically bought into the stockmarket because they feared there wasnt enough equity to go round.

50% isnt one of the most spectacular predictions of 2006 though is it? I thought we were all due to be property billionaires by now.

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they used the famous Bloo Loo prediction kit, supplied to VIs the world over.

a graph showing the last six months of figures, a straight ruler (precision graduated) and a pencil

simply place the precision ruler on the last three months figures and continue the line onward through time.

Bears need not apply.

This is the method used by 'experts' since the dawn of time. Usually projected as far until a headline grabbing round number on the y axis, like £1million, hawked around the red tops until even pond life is sucked in by the VI spin

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they used the famous Bloo Loo prediction kit, supplied to VIs the world over.

a graph showing the last six months of figures, a straight ruler (precision graduated) and a pencil

simply place the precision ruler on the last three months figures and continue the line onward through time.

Bears need not apply.

This is the method used by 'experts' since the dawn of time. Usually projected as far until a headline grabbing round number on the y axis, like £1million, hawked around the red tops until even pond life is sucked in by the VI spin

indeed, some clever fellows on this site did the method on the Nationwide prices chart....( before mid 2007 of course)...fills the right hand side wth bloo, but shows the stupidness of the bull argument very clearly indeed.

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Reply:

What is your interest, may I ask, Mr. *****?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Anji Hussain [mailto:ahussain@oxfordeconomics.com]

Sent: 28 July 2009 10:26

To: 'Adam Slater'

Subject: FW: UK housing market

Adam,

One for you….

A

ANJI HUSSAIN

PA to MD

Oxford Economics Ltd

Abbey House

121 St Aldates

Oxford

OX1 1HB

Tel: 01865 268900

Fax: 01865 268906

ahussain@oxfordeconomics.com

Edited by Deadman

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for the benefit of those of you who only skim read, subby the (i'm guessing) sub editor there was yanking your chain as the article was from July 2006 - so dont have nightmares

correct, hence the "have a chuckle" tag on the thread title. :lol:

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And my reply:

Thank you for asking Mr Slater.

I stumbled across the BBC link this morning and am interested in what organisations such as yourselves who previously predicted that the market would continue to rise indefinitely think will happen now given the uncertainty in the current market.

(I wonder where this is going :lol: )

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Reply:

What is your interest, may I ask, Mr. *****?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Anji .........

That's a confidence inspring reply from them i must say. good grief, beggars belief

correct, hence the "have a chuckle" tag on the thread title. :lol:

i know but many just skim read here as they're busy at work (if they're lucky)

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Home prices 'to rise 50% by 2011'

Affordability will remain a major headache for first-time buyers

LINKY

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5187398.stm

Not only affordability also the question how many people will have a job by then as well . Remember the huge Council and Public Sector job losses due in the next few years. Not forgetting we have no room to manoevre on interest rates, they will be likely be higher than they are now .

We won't return to ridiculous south sea bubble type lending we saw during the last boom for another couple of generations .

My prediction on house prices falling or stagnant for next 15 to 20 years

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The rate people are leaving this country they will be given the houses away.

Over 11 million people thinking of getting out in the next 2 years thats a big number.

Yes but it will be the usefull productive that leave ,not the dependant.

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