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ezekiel

Has A Neutral Levle Of Mortgage Approvals Been Reached?

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Independent today:

Figures from the Bank of England yesterday confirmed that the banks and building societies remain reluctant to lend to any but the most secure of businesses and home buyers. Mortgage approvals barely improved during May, remaining stuck at a little over 43,000 – some way above the nadir of 27,000 last winter, but under half of their normal level. Analysts at Capital Economics said the figures were "consistent with house prices falling at double-digit annual rates".

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IMHO yes for now, this level will cause a slight levelling/small rise in prices.... splines graphs below

kyoy_jun2009.png

kq_jun2009.png

I think after this mini boom we will loose the gains made and fall a further 10%

Although the latest tradition property derivatives suggest the falls will be less (Spreadfair data is a little old now, but a nice comparison)

khp_jun2009.png

The latest unadjusted for inflation nationwide figures (which aren't reflected on the HPC homepage graph yet), for june 09 certainly show this boom!

Nationwide.jpg

post-552-1248717893_thumb.jpg

Edited by moosetea

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I think splines graphs are lagging.

We've had the stable / small rise market already.

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the last graph indicates prices levelling. I find this hard to believe for any significant period as the market always (I think) is either heading north or south, rarely treading water in the UK.

I can't see much upward growth though with negative equity, lending restrictions, unemployment increases, govt. spending etc etc all heading the wrong way.

So I assume its going to be a double-dip. Any forecasts on how long 'till the next slide down?

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