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Sybil13

Short And Sweet Q

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Can anyone confirm what % below peak property IS selling for?

We have quite a few threads that seem to be painting completely contradictory pictures.

Rightmove have been saying since the start of the year that property is selling but only at 25% below peak.

Other articles and threads imply that valuations are coming in 25 - 30% below peak leading to chains breaking down. (40% for remortgages)

So can those of you that use Property Bee etc or indeed have first hand experience can you confirm what property is ACTUALLY selling for, that is the very few that are actually selling, given that :

The number of homes recorded so far as having being sold in May is just over 14,000. Down from 63,000 in May last year and 106,000 in 2007.
UK house prices (asking) have stopped their recent 'dead cat bounce' according to Miles Shipside and his team at Rightmove. Estate agents now have on average seventy properties each on their books, and are only selling ten per month according to RICS...

However, this RICS contention is not supported by recorded data. With only 35,000 property sales a month, according to Land Registry, and the head count of agents being circa the same this would suggest that agents are in fact only selling on average one property per month.

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home.co.uk

London Median Asking Price

medianbytype-london-200609-200907.gif

London Median Selling Price

median-london-200004-200905.gif

Just put the postcode/town into the site and the spread will be revealed, including transactions qtys

counts-london-200004-200904.gif

Edited by moosetea

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home.co.uk

London Median Asking Price

medianbytype-london-200609-200907.gif

London Median Selling Price

median-london-200004-200905.gif

Just put the postcode/town into the site and the spread will be revealed, including transactions qtys

counts-london-200004-200904.gif

Always forget Home co.uk , its a good resource, however, figures often terribly skewed with detached properties much lower in price than terraces or 2 bed terraces pushed up to an average of £300000 because the £1.5 million house sold just up the road, but thanks anyway for reminding me about the website.

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I think Jason has this information in his sig.

But this is the problem is it not?

If I look at Jason's signature it tells me that from peak property is down anythng up to 20.99% :

Halifax: ----------------------- Aug07 �199,612 ~ June09 �157,713 -20.99% --(link) - based on mortgage approvals, mix adjusted

Nationwide: ------------------- Oct07 �186,044 ~ June09 �156,442 -15.91% ----(link) - based on mortgage approvals, mix adjusted

Rightmove: ------------------- May08 �242,500 ~ July09 �227,864 -6.04% ----(link) - initial asking prices

DCLG (formerly ODPM): ----- Jan08 �221,758 ~ May09 �188,991 -14.78% ---(link) - completed sales, mix adjusted (experimental)

Land Registry (Monthly): ----- Nov07 �186,009 ~ May09 �152,497 -18.02% --(link) - sold prices, like for like

Land Registry (Quarterly): --- Q307 �230,474 ~ Q109 �198,939 -13.68% --------(link) - sold prices, standard average mean, quarterly

But if I look at what Miles Shipside was saying in May 2009 he tells me property was ONLY selling at 25% from peak:

The report also said that lack of mortgage availability is hindering market recovery as sellers who have dealt with the market reality and drastically dropped their asking price are faced with buyers unable to obtain finance. Rightmove commercial director Miles Shipside said:

"Some sellers are still pricing wishfully high, though it is encouraging that elements of the market have adapted relatively quickly to find a new price floor at a discount of around 25% from peak. ""Until banks get their own houses in order, the active minority of sellers and agents who have drastically adjusted pricing will remain frustrated by the limited functioning of the financial services sector."

And if I believe what I read in the papers chains are breaking down as buyers find they either cannot get a mortgage at all or the valuation is coming in well below peak.

Then I look at Home.co.uk say at BH12 and find that detached properties are cheaper than semis

May 2008 - May 2009 Change

Detached £250,432 £175,000 -30%

Semi £194,711 £175,773 -10%

Terraced £160,333 £147,333 -8%

Flat £142,111 £109,167 -23%

All £195,814 £156,942 -20%

All very confusing!

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Then I look at Home.co.uk say at BH12 and find that detached properties are cheaper than semis

May 2008 - May 2009 Change

Detached £250,432 £175,000 -30%

Semi £194,711 £175,773 -10%

Terraced £160,333 £147,333 -8%

Flat £142,111 £109,167 -23%

All £195,814 £156,942 -20%

All very confusing!

Individual post codes often have very small sample sizes leading to anomalies. A large 4 bed semi in a prime part of BH12 could be twice the price of a 2 bed detached bungalow in a less prosperous part.

Agreed it is confusing, but Jason's sig looks about right on a national basis.

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Then I look at Home.co.uk say at BH12 and find that detached properties are cheaper than semis

Try looking at median, which is unaffected by oddities for a clearer picture of BH12:

May 2008 May 2009 Change

Detached £222,250 £166,000 -25%

Semi £190,081 £158,000 -17%

Terraced £170,000 £142,000 -16%

Flat £153,000 £106,000 -31%

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