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Guest_chris c-t_*

Usd And T-notes Collapsing

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The USD is making 2009 lows today, I think. Also Long Term Treasuries are collapsing..

TLT (Long TermTreasuries 20+yr bond fund) 89.96 (-1.45)

clearly lots to do with the issuance by the Fed this week (~$100Bn), but does anyone have a real-time USDX quote?

EDIT: this won't help Gilts either!

BoE gets cover of 2.68 in 1.98 bln stg gilt buyback

27 Jul 2009 - 15:02

The Bank of England said it received an offer-to-cover ratio of 2.68 when it bought 1.98 billion pounds of long-dated government debt under its asset purchase plan on Monday.

The central bank received offers to sell totalling 5.303 billion pounds.

Fire-sales by rats leaving the sinking ship?

Edited by chris c-t

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The USD is making 2009 lows today, I think. Also Long Term Treasuries are collapsing..

TLT (Long TermTreasuries 20+yr bond fund) 89.96 (-1.45)

clearly lots to do with the issuance by the Fed this week (~$100Bn), but does anyone have a real-time USDX quote?

EDIT: this won't help Gilts either!

CONGRATULATIONS !!!

You just won the award for most un-informed post of the day :lol:

Not sure where you got 89.96 from, but Bloomberg is showing the 10-Year @ 94.922 and the 30-Year @ 93.719

The USD is NOT making 2009 lows.

To answer your Q, the Bloomberg website offers virtually real time FX qoutes, as does Reuters.

Edited by VoteWithYourFeet

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CONGRATULATIONS !!!

You just won the award for most un-informed post of the day :lol:

Not sure where you got 89.96 from, but Bloomberg is showing the 10-Year @ 94.922 and the 30-Year @ 93.719

The USD is NOT making 2009 lows.

To answer your Q, the Bloomberg website offers virtually real time FX qoutes, as does Reuters.

The 89.96 is an index made out of long dated treasuries.

The USD is making 2009 lows on at least a number of trade-weighted indices.

Congratulations on being an idiot.

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CONGRATULATIONS !!!

You just won the award for most un-informed post of the day :lol:

Not sure where you got 89.96 from, but Bloomberg is showing the 10-Year @ 94.922 and the 30-Year @ 93.719

The USD is NOT making 2009 lows.

To answer your Q, the Bloomberg website offers virtually real time FX qoutes, as does Reuters.

it's very near.....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=a0hbcWuMfeog

Dollar Falls to Near 2009 Low as Economy Pares Refuge Demand

By Oliver Biggadike and Matthew Brown July 27 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to near the lowest level this year against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners on speculation the global economy is shaking off the worst recession since World War II, sapping safety demand.

Look at TLT> proxy for long term US Govt Debt. Used by many traders. Gives volume info too.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tlt

Oh, and you didn't answer my question I need the USDX (that's the basket we measure the USD against - there we can see if it's making new lows or not... )

Please try to be more constructive.

Edited by chris c-t

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it's very near.....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=a0hbcWuMfeog

Look at TLT> proxy for long term US Govt Debt. Used by many traders. Gives volume info too.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tlt

Oh, and you didn't answer my question I need the USDX (that's the basket we measure the USD against - there we can see if it's making new lows or not... )

Please try to be more constructive.

Apologies, I got it all wrong :(

I found this for USDX futures prices, hope it helps:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquo....php3?market=DX

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Looks like all that debt issuance due this week is taking its toll.

Edit: It doesn't appear to have made a new low just yet. Close but no cigar.

Edited by Red Kharma

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Which debt insurance?

from market ticker

HOLY !@#!! Treasury Auction Schedule

Oh My......

Let's see if I can count this up....

70 day CMBs, $30 billion (tomorrow)

13 week Bills, $32 billion (July 27th)

26 week Bills, $31 billion (July 27th)

52 week Bills, $27 billion (July 28th)

2 year Notes, $42 billion (July 28th)

5 year Notes, $39 billion (July 29th)

7 year Notes, $28 billion (July 30th)

19 year, 6 month TIPS (reopened), $6 billion (July 27th)

That's two hundred thirty-five billion dollars over the next week!

Almost one quarter of a trillion....... geejus.

I guess you should get while the getting is good, but this is going totally parabolic. That money has to come out of somewhere, by the way, in order for the sale to succeed, which is going to get rather interesting at some point - but exactly where it matters is impossible to know.

I expected that when we crossed the $100 billion threshold in a week the market would throw up all over it, but it didn't. Now we've got the government trying to sell a quarter of a trillion dollars in debt over the next week, the announcement is out there, and while the bond market is selling off to a material degree equities could care less!

This is flat-out insane. At this run rate we would be trying to sell twelve trillion dollars over one year's time, an obviously ridiculous and impossible-to-peddle amount of debt at any price.

When does the rest of the world wake up (not to mention the primary dealers) and say "NO!"? Never? Is there a truly insatiable demand for our government's debt, despite the fact that President Obama got up on the national stage last night and promised to spend another trillion dollars we don't have?

How do equities power higher into this sort of debt issuance? Is it simply that the market has deduced that the government will hand all of this zero-interest money out - indefinitely?

Guess what - that which is impossible won't happen, and the stock market is now telling you that the impossible will become reality. There has been and will not be any amount of fiscal sanity on the part of our government until the market imposes it, and when it does it is going to happen in exactly the same way it happened to Bear Stearns, Lehman, Fannie and Freddie. May I remind readers that it was said that Fannie and Freddie "couldn't" get in trouble due to their implicit government guarantee? Well guess what - they both effectively failed, but when the US Government finds itself in the same situation it has nobody who can take it into conservatorship and as such we're just going to have to deal with the consequences of failed debt auctions - that is, dramatically increased funding costs across the board in the economy, including the government, which will choke off any hope of economic anything.

Folks, this is how you get detonation of a nation's monetary and political system. Timing the "event" it is not easy, but the certainty of outcome given this sort of outrageously irresponsible activity is not in doubt.

I'm increasing my stock of things that "will never go to zero" and keeping my ear to the ground. The "short the phone book but make sure you get out fast before you get trampled" moment approaches - mark my words

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Which debt insurance?

There's something like $235 billion of treasuries being sold or rolled this week according to Denninger. Will be interesting to see where the cash comes from.

Edit: His HOLY @#$! thread from last week

http://market-ticker.org/archives/1256-HOL...n-Schedule.html

Oh thanks lowrent - beat me to it!

Edited by Red Kharma

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Which debt insurance?

"Debt issuance" not "insurance". US is issuing nearly one-quarter trillion in treasuries this week. :ph34r:

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That's two hundred thirty-five billion dollars over the next week!

Thanks.

So can we assume the Fed is buying up all of this debt?

"Debt issuance"

Sorry dislexic :P moment there, read it as insurance.

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Thanks WW, that plot shows the Yield curve, indicating the 30 Yr T-bonds are indeed dropping today. (I mean price drop, yield up).. I have live TLT informatin which is a fund investing mainly in a mix of 20+ year US Government debt. What Iwas looking for was the USDX live. - this is the value of the dollar relative to a basket of other currencies. Thanks to a few links here I now have the last settled price reasonably up to date..

Edited by chris c-t

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