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A Lurker's View

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Hi, i rarely post on here but have found the site very useful over the last 4 years and have learnt a lot.

Having read the forum over the last few months since prices "stabilised" i thought i'd put my view across to see who agrees/disagrees.

Firstly - Interest Rates are at their lowest possible point and the governement has been printing money like mad - if things had not stabilised for the time being you would have to really worry about armageddon. Banks are reluctant to call in failing loans because they have enough problems of their own and tracker mortgage holders have been given a stay of execution.

Now, as far as i can see it, we have the various elephants in the room that those pr 1 cks in the city are trying to ignore. These include: a potential flare up from

1. Commercial Property Loans

2. Credit Card debt unravelling

3. A bond strike regarding Gilts forcing up interest rates

4. Eastern European bank / country defaults

5. A change in consumer habits - the US consumer is paying back for the first time ever

6. Increasing unemployment

7. Swine Flu

8. Impending tax increases

Please feel free to add more to the list.

At the moment, cash buyers and those with large deposits are diving in to sustain prices looking for returns. This money is finite. Most of the country has to pay down it's debts.

I'm 33 and pretty annoyed at not being in a position to buy. But, unless wages start to rocket i'll happily wait on the sidelines. We need wage inflation to sustain prices and i don't see it happening. In the meantime, let the cash buyers burn themselves out in this suckers rally - it's less competition when the real crash happens next year. The fundamentals are still f/cked, it's just taking longer than people thought because of state intervention, however, the state haven't got many bullets left.

I'd be interested on your views so that i can reassure myself that i'm not going mad!



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