huw Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 1998 worldwide natural gas production: 2273 billion cubic meters2008 worldwide natural gas production: 3066 billion cubic meters 34.88% increase in production over the decade! 1998 worldwide coal production: 2227 MTOE 2008 worldwide coal production: 3325 MTOE 49.30% increase in production over the decade!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Peak energy my ****. If the figures aren't higher than previously, it's not a peak Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cells Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 If the figures aren't higher than previously, it's not a peak Oh, so increasing production is what peak oil is Also decreasing production is peak oil And a flat production is peak oil Everything is peak oil. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hayder Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 Iraq has potential, although oil prospecting/developing is surprisingly difficult even there when people keep kidnapping you and cutting your head off.The former USSR has been heavily explored, and it's doubtful that there is much to find in central Africa. Of course, if we are so awash with oil, why do people even bother with places like the above? chances of getting beheaded in iraq now are about 1/1,000,000 and either way the chinese will go in anyway.... nothing stops oilwells and pipes. Most of Russia has not been properly explored either (you must mean the caspian sea oil which was heavily used...). either way theres plenty of oil and other energy sources left... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cells Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 either way theres plenty of oil and other energy sources left... That is the point peaky oiled face people ignore. Even if oil declines by say 3% a year that is more than offset by the 5% increase in coal per year. On top of that we have a 3-4% increase in gas per year. Plus we could massively expand nuclear to fill in any gap. On top of all that we can reduce consumption greatly by simple things such as solar water heaters, which are simple and payback relatively quickly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kurt Barlow Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 That is the point peaky oiled face people ignore.Even if oil declines by say 3% a year that is more than offset by the 5% increase in coal per year. On top of that we have a 3-4% increase in gas per year. Plus we could massively expand nuclear to fill in any gap. On top of all that we can reduce consumption greatly by simple things such as solar water heaters, which are simple and payback relatively quickly. You have changed your tune - not criticising mind.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huw Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 Oh, so increasing production is what peak oil isAlso decreasing production is peak oil And a flat production is peak oil Everything is peak oil. No. But your attempt to use increasing production as a rebuttal doesn't do what you intend. Hubbert's critics tried to use the same argument to prove him wrong about US continental production, as that production peaked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kurt Barlow Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 No. But your attempt to use increasing production as a rebuttal doesn't do what you intend. Hubbert's critics tried to use the same argument to prove him wrong about US continental production, as that production peaked. Similar in vein to the arguement that house prices only ever go up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravity always wins Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 Oil/gas/coal is mostly interchangeable and so is nuclear/hydro/renewable. My garage was plain out of petrol this morning so I topped up with a bit of coal and some uranium runs as sweet as a nut. You do write some utter sh*te sometimes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 My garage was plain out of petrol this morning so I topped up with a bit of coal and some uranium runs as sweet as a nut. You do write some utter sh*te sometimes. He was probably talking at a higher level than that... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Take Me Back To London! Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 Yes nice story isn’t it.Imagine what you could get away with if you scared people into believing they will all starve to death and not be able to watch big brother in ten years time. No more Big Brother. It won't be all bad then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluffy666 Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 He was probably talking at a higher level than that... Technically you can replace oil with coal, assuming sufficient coal. You just have to spend several 10s of billions of dollars and several years building a set of coal-to-oil plants. You will note that this isn't happening much at the moment (I believe that China is making one or two). As long as we use market forces to dictate energy policy we have the problem that shortages will happen, despite the theoretical availability of energy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huw Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 Similar in vein to the arguement that house prices only ever go up The parallel had occurred to me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy_K Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 1998 worldwide natural gas production: 2273 billion cubic meters2008 worldwide natural gas production: 3066 billion cubic meters 34.88% increase in production over the decade! 1998 worldwide coal production: 2227 MTOE 2008 worldwide coal production: 3325 MTOE 49.30% increase in production over the decade!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Peak energy my ****. 1998 uk average house price: £86,000 2008 uk average house price: £152,000 177% increase in price over the decade! Peak house prices my ****. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kurt Barlow Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 Technically you can replace oil with coal, assuming sufficient coal. You just have to spend several 10s of billions of dollars and several years building a set of coal-to-oil plants. You will note that this isn't happening much at the moment (I believe that China is making one or two). As long as we use market forces to dictate energy policy we have the problem that shortages will happen, despite the theoretical availability of energy. Cells also seems to ignore the energy losses associated with converting coal to liquids or the increasing energy requirements for obtaining progressively more difficult to exploit fossil fuels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lander Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 That is the point peaky oiled face people ignore.Even if oil declines by say 3% a year that is more than offset by the 5% increase in coal per year. On top of that we have a 3-4% increase in gas per year. Plus we could massively expand nuclear to fill in any gap. On top of all that we can reduce consumption greatly by simple things such as solar water heaters, which are simple and payback relatively quickly. No such thing as peak coal, gas and uranium then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cells Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 [/b]You have changed your tune - not criticising mind.. I was never against solar hot water. A lot of countries would do well to use them. I was out in turkey not long ago and it seem like most homes had them. They didn’t look like your vacuum tubes but were dam hot to the touch. Was told they provide all the hot water a family needs. (not sure about winter) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cells Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 No such thing as peak coal, gas and uranium then? Maybe, but not for a long while as a massive 50% increase in production clearly shows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluffy666 Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 Cells also seems to ignore the energy losses associated with converting coal to liquids or the increasing energy requirements for obtaining progressively more difficult to exploit fossil fuels. Yes, normal mined coal-to-liquids is a stop gap at best (ignoring the environmental impacts), which means it's probably what will happen.. Underground coal gasification with a liquid conversion stage above ground is interesting, if also extremely dangerous for the environment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cells Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 Cells also seems to ignore the energy losses associated with converting coal to liquids or the increasing energy requirements for obtaining progressively more difficult to exploit fossil fuels. I don’t think we will convert much coal to liquid. I was thinking more on the lines of interchangeable in power plants and cars. Gas can be used in cars or power plants. Coal/nuclear can be used in power plants. So oil is usually considered the fossil fuel that will see shortages relative to demand first. So what we would do is use gas in more cars to offset some of that. We could even siphon a lot of gas to cars and just use more coal for power stations or nuclear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cells Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 1998 uk average house price: £86,0002008 uk average house price: £152,000 177% increase in price over the decade! Peak house prices my ****. Hahha you stupid mofo Relating it to houses you would have to look at the number of houses. Has there been a crash in the number of houses? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cells Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 The parallel had occurred to me Price and production are two different things. There are lots of examples of many centauries of increasing production with no “peakâ€. Human population would be one. Land use another. Water use. Hundreds of examples where production has just got larger and large. And guess what. Energy too has been like that for at least 10,000 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cells Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 My garage was plain out of petrol this morning so I topped up with a bit of coal and some uranium runs as sweet as a nut. You do write some utter sh*te sometimes. The quality of HPC sure is going down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cells Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 No. But your attempt to use increasing production as a rebuttal doesn't do what you intend. Hubbert's critics tried to use the same argument to prove him wrong about US continental production, as that production peaked. Everything has to peak one day. The important question is when it will happen, if the consequences are going to be terrible and most importantly if we will still be fine after the peak (ie at a lower level) Currently we use about 15TW of power on earth. I can tell you we will most definitely NOT peak at 15TW, nor will we peak at 20TW (equivalent to extracting ANOTHER 85 million barrels of oil per day). I would go so far as say we will not peak until about 25TW at which point there will be little demand for more. However if energy gets dirt dirt cheap (say solar PV becomes far cheaper than coal) then we could go all the way to 30-40TW before there is little extra demand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frozen_out Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 Everything has to peak one day.The important question is when it will happen, if the consequences are going to be terrible and most importantly if we will still be fine after the peak (ie at a lower level) Currently we use about 15TW of power on earth. I can tell you we will most definitely NOT peak at 15TW, nor will we peak at 20TW (equivalent to extracting ANOTHER 85 million barrels of oil per day). I would go so far as say we will not peak until about 25TW at which point there will be little demand for more. However if energy gets dirt dirt cheap (say solar PV becomes far cheaper than coal) then we could go all the way to 30-40TW before there is little extra demand. So how do you calculate this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tedies friend Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 I wonder what the sustainable level is 10TW, maybe 5TW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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