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Cogs

Economists Apologise To The Queen

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2009/jul/26/m...y-credit-crunch

"In summary, Your Majesty," they conclude, "the failure to foresee the timing, extent and severity of the crisis and to head it off, while it had many causes, was principally a failure of the collective imagination of many bright people, both in this country and internationally, to understand the risks to the system as a whole."

Besley stressed that the experts had not been in "finger-wagging mode" and had agreed that the causes of the credit crunch were extremely complex. "There was a very complicated, interconnected set of issues, rather than one particular person or one particular institution."

250px-Blackadder_2_melchett.jpg <---- an economist, not to be confused with a craven idiot mumbling excuses.

Send the lot of them to the tower.

Edited by Cogs

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"the failure to foresee the timing, extent and severity of the crisis and to head it off, while it had many causes, was principally a failure of the collective imagination of many bright people, both in this country and internationally, to understand the risks to the system as a whole, except a bunch of nutters on a little cult site called HousePriceCrash who acurately predicted the whole thing. Of course we didn't take them seriously and we hope that you wouldn't either mam, because they are completely outside our superior knowledge community, they don't work in Whitehall or any really quality environment, and in the rightful order of things, they had no right to be thinking or doing anything other than working with us to blow the balloon up."

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"the failure to foresee the timing, extent and severity of the crisis and to head it off, while it had many causes, was principally a failure of the collective imagination of many bright people, both in this country and internationally, to understand the risks to the system as a whole, except a bunch of nutters on a little cult site called HousePriceCrash who acurately predicted the whole thing. Of course we didn't take them seriously and we hope that you wouldn't either mam, because they are completely outside our superior knowledge community, they don't work in Whitehall or any really quality environment, and in the rightful order of things, they had no right to be thinking or doing anything other than working with us to blow the balloon up."

"cult" ! ?

Mum - they've been brainwashing me. Come and get me. Take me home !

:lol::lol::lol:

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"The three-page missive, which blames "a failure of the collective imagination of many bright people", was sent after the Queen asked, during a visit to the London School of Economics, why no one had predicted the credit crunch."

Makes her sound like a little old lady who is out of touch and not up to speed.

Maybe her Majesty's famed discretion comes from the old,

"It is better to keep quiet and let people think you are a fool rather than open your mouth so that they know for sure."

Of course, it could just be the Observer having a dig and trying to shift product.

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It started in the Ex-Colonies M'am

best send in the guards and guvern them proply, M'am.

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It started in the Ex-Colonies M'am

best send in the guards and guvern them proply, M'am.

:lol::lol::lol:

It'll never work. Hunt me down. Send in the hun if you will!

On the issue of the Queen and her grasp on the economy, it doesn't sound to me like she was out of touch at all. Everyone I knew who wasn't connected to this site was pretty much of the view, perpetrated by these same experts, that the boom would go on forever, and a house would in 20 years time, cost the equivalent of a golden elephant poo. Maybe she mewed Buck Palace and is a bit worried now?

(Edit: and perhaps it was just a rhetorical question, to ask, what most ordinary Britains are thinking but nobody else dares to say in this status obsessed land - that's her true role, to raise the challenging questions that others can't (and won't get the airtime for, or even a nod, if they do) in her 'sweet little old lady just naively asking' way)

Edited by Elizabeth

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:lol::lol::lol:

It'll never work. Hunt me down. Send in the hun if you will!

On the issue of the Queen and her grasp on the economy, it doesn't sound to me like she was out of touch at all. Everyone I knew who wasn't connected to this site was pretty much of the view, perpetrated by these same experts, that the boom would go on forever, and a house would in 20 years time, cost the equivalent of a golden elephant poo. Maybe she mewed Buck Palace and is a bit worried now?

thats me in 1987. done a spreadsheet on my forthcoming house purchase to project its value.

boy was I blind.

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Well, I posted what I did because there were plenty of people I know who could see that house prices in particular were overpriced.

Does anyone remember that bald talking head who was on Bloomberg a lot in Spring 2007, can't remember his name, shaking that little bald bonce of his and saying commercial real estate was ridiculously overvalued along with a lot of other sectors?

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Guest KingCharles1st
yeah right

0424_clip_image002.jpg

Great looking graph, but WHY does it not take a downward turn around 1990-95

If that was the case, then we should not expect things to be different now, and , well...ouch

Edited by KingCharles1st

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Great looking graph, but WHY does it not take a downward turn around 1990-95

If that was the case, then we should not expect things to be different now, and , well...ouch

securitization and other very clever ( you couldnt possibly understand the very complicated mathematical models our geniuses have created) financial "instruments"

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I'm even chuckling a bit to myself.

These economists are so woeful that they've even written to her Madge saying no one saw it coming when quite plainly ....

If her Madge had said,

"Who saw it coming?"

That would have been quite cool and with her experience one would have thought she could have framed the question in that way.

One also would have thought that when asked the economist might well have,

"Err, ummm, well, actually Ma'am some people did see it coming. If your Majesty desires one could, errr .... e'mail your Majesty the google link."

Clearly a statement of simple truth of that ilk is beyond them.

And I would say that's a very heavy underlying sell signal and if anyone has already sold everything except what one is going to hold, I am not hearing any "upgrade" from hold to buy worth listening to.

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Well, I posted what I did because there were plenty of people I know who could see that house prices in particular were overpriced.

Does anyone remember that bald talking head who was on Bloomberg a lot in Spring 2007, can't remember his name, shaking that little bald bonce of his and saying commercial real estate was ridiculously overvalued along with a lot of other sectors?

I can take your point, but it was still all very marginalised. There are over 1,000 members on this site and a very lively debate. And yet we managed to have very little effect on the public debate. (apart from Kirsty at one stage wanted to blame to site for any drop in housing prices! - a bit too thick to notice there is a world economy out there). I was confronted with outright hostility at work if I aired even a 10th of my views - so I just stopped airing them - apart from when they decided that they were going to encourage share-buy housing as a solution to housing for people with Learning Disabilities - I was horrified. I made the point that it was the top of the market, there was likely to be a crash, and people could end up in negative equity. I was told in contemptous tones by a rather too confident 29 year old policy officer (who had already cashed in her own let-to-buy, when previously she was going to 'build her pension on housing') that 'its already been decided by the people who know' - know what I ask? but a very frosty response indeed!

However the Queen, has, with humility and grace, managed to take these guys down a peg. I just thought it was a superb piece of politics.

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Money reformers have predicted such a crisis for many years.

For example, James Gibb Stuart explained in 1983 the inherent instability of our debt-based, commercially issued money system and predicted its convulsive demise as the debt grows inexorably and exponentially to unservicable levels:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Money-Bomb-James-G...7558&sr=8-1

Some more recent publications:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Coming-First-World...0077&sr=8-1

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Web-Debt-Shocking-...pd_bxgy_b_img_b

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Grip-Death-Slavery...pd_bxgy_b_img_b

The recent credit/house price bubble has been a particularly rapid and vicious acceleration of the expansion of our unsustainable Ponzi money system, and maybe the onset of its death throes.

We shall see.

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Money reformers have predicted such a crisis for many years.

For example, James Gibb Stuart explained in 1983 the inherent instability of our debt-based, commercially issued money system and predicted its convulsive demise as the debt grows inexorably and exponentially to unservicable levels:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Money-Bomb-James-G...7558&sr=8-1

Some more recent publications:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Coming-First-World...0077&sr=8-1

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Web-Debt-Shocking-...pd_bxgy_b_img_b

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Grip-Death-Slavery...pd_bxgy_b_img_b

The recent credit/house price bubble has been a particularly rapid and vicious acceleration of the expansion of our unsustainable Ponzi money system, and maybe the onset of its death throes.

We shall see.

Just a thought, could "our debt-based, commercially issued money system" ever work? If it wasnt run by short-termist tw@ts? Or was it bound to fail regardless of how prudiently it was executed?

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Just a thought, could "our debt-based, commercially issued money system" ever work? If it wasnt run by short-termist tw@ts? Or was it bound to fail regardless of how prudiently it was executed?

Good question.

Theoretically it can "work" indefinitely provided that the real economy continues to expand in concert with the exponentially growing money supply/debt numbers, and enough unservicable debt is allowed to default.

In reality the money issuers and number shufflers become ever more powerful and the real productive economy ever more subservient to them.

How that growing imbalance plays out is what we are going to find out, and probably quite soon.

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securitization and other very clever ( you couldnt possibly understand the very complicated mathematical models our geniuses have created) financial "instruments"

Yup. Securitization -- fuelled/fed by by LIAR LOANS. The Greatest Con in History.

Edited by eric pebble

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From the article:

What we need is a forum where people can come together on a very open basis, to provide challenges and have a debate.

:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

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From the article:

"QUOTE

What we need is a forum where people can come together on a very open basis, to provide challenges and have a debate."

:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

Beyond belief.

Edited by eric pebble

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Beyond belief.

Eric, it just goes to show how much the warnings we've been screaming out loud at HPC have been ignored - even so-called experts don't know we exist.

Incredible!!!

Edited by Dave Spart

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"QUOTE

What we need is a forum where people can come together on a very open basis, to provide challenges and have a debate."

Actually what they meant was not a forum like this that might have seen it coming, but a forum that wouldn't have seen it coming (and thereby didn't challenged their world view) but could be blamed for their lack of expertise when it did. They don't have a scapegoat - and its a mite inconvenient. They will fix that in future by blaming people who don't get paid for their expertise.

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"QUOTE

What we need is a forum where people can come together on a very open basis, to provide challenges and have a debate."

Actually what they meant was not a forum like this that might have seen it coming, but a forum that wouldn't have seen it coming (and thereby didn't challenged their world view) but could be blamed for their lack of expertise when it did. They don't have a scapegoat - and its a mite inconvenient. They will fix that in future by blaming people who don't get paid for their expertise.

The power of the people is always most easily corrupted when it is abrogated into the hands of a corruptible few.

Because of this the People feel disillusioned by the politicians and disenfranchised by the system.

This is precisely why Parliament needs huge reform:

(1) Frequent use of public referenda to faciliate the expression of the People's will.

(2) A means whereby that will can be introduced to Parliament on behalf of The People following those referenda in the form of a paper.

(3) Elected members of Parliament shape that paper in legal terms as a bill of Parliament.

(4) The People ultimately sanction whether that bill, having been shaped by Parliament, becomes law (to prevent their will being perverted by members of Parliament).

(5) The power to dismiss Parliament and call a general election.

Essentially this would mean The People themselves set the agenda not political parties and members of Parliament become legal consultants to The People.

Edited by Dave Spart

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