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hedi

A Reason Shares Keep Going Up.

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no one is selling. thats the reason. if you have held onto your shares for the last year you are not going to sell now. those who bought earlier in the year have made good gains, but these are usually traders, who made losses last year and are therefore trying to get back into profit and will hang on.

trading volumes are not high, and the press is in full bull mood. people are bored now and just have a pent up buying mode going mad,so its buy buy buy.

having observed the markets for some time i have noticed that when company results are good, down go the shares and when they are bad, up go the shares. so its only logical that as result after result is bad, up go the shares.

the market has always been a casino. sooner or later people will start to take profit if they can. normally people wait till its too late. but good luck to them if they make a buck or two. but i am not a trader, i dont have the nerves for it. i like to invest and this is not an investment market. the figures simply do not add up.

each time a get depressed at the state of the markets, i stand back and look at the big picture.

rising unemployment,

rising defaults,

falling company profits,

rising bankruptcies

rising cc defaults,

lack of credit expantion,

falling world trade,

falling rail freight

falling shipping freight,

falling big ticket item sales,

shops closing

permanent sales in the high street,

de nile is a long river.

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having observed the markets for some time i have noticed that when company results are good, down go the shares and when they are bad, up go the shares. so its only logical that as result after result is bad, up go the shares.

Please don't me you don't invest in the market

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this is not an investment market. the figures simply do not add up.

:) As I see it, share prices - of late - are driven principally by an expectation of the further debasement of currency by government intervention in the form of monetary stimulus packages.

I'm given the decided impression that the market could turn very rapidly... to the extent that, if I were a little more proactive, I'd consider taking a punt that the FTSE, for example would be lower in 3-6 months' time... especially if I could do so with an option... so as to eliminate short-term risks of market irrationality.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable

Is this a thread about bent squid poker games?

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each time a get depressed at the state of the markets, i stand back and look at the big picture.

rising unemployment,

rising defaults,

falling company profits,

rising bankruptcies

rising cc defaults,

lack of credit expantion,

falling world trade,

falling rail freight

falling shipping freight,

falling big ticket item sales,

shops closing

permanent sales in the high street,

de nile is a long river.

Not sure I 100% believe this but here is a counter-argument:

In conditions like those, now is the time to pick winners.

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In conditions like those, now is the time to pick winners.

of course it is. if you could tell me which ones i would be grateful.

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Is this a thread about bent squid poker games?

dont mention GOLDman sachs.

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they are buying all the debt with printed money. Then holding it in a black box and forgetting about it. The sellers now have lots of money burning a hole in their pocket and they have to spend it somewhere. They know that the government is killing the bond market, so the other thing to do is buy shares. They know as long as the government keep printing the money, more people will be coming in to buy shares, therefore people are getting into the share ponzi at the low point as soon as possible.

When the government threatens to sell off this debt in future, money will be pulled out of stocks to buy the debt, thus crashing the market.

P.S US government is issuing $250 debt NEXT WEEK, we could see some air taken out of shares - or a failed bond auction if everyone stays in shares. We will see.

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they are buying all the debt with printed money. Then holding it in a black box and forgetting about it. The sellers now have lots of money burning a hole in their pocket and they have to spend it somewhere. They know that the government is killing the bond market, so the other thing to do is buy shares. They know as long as the government keep printing the money, more people will be coming in to buy shares, therefore people are getting into the share ponzi at the low point as soon as possible.

When the government threatens to sell off this debt in future, money will be pulled out of stocks to buy the debt, thus crashing the market.

P.S US government is issuing $250 debt NEXT WEEK, we could see some air taken out of shares - or a failed bond auction if everyone stays in shares. We will see.

$250...sounds like a recovereh is under weh!

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All the shares in my small portfolio are still in loss, so I'm not selling! I guess a lot of people are the same.

When things were really bad a few months ago, as with houses, there were probably a lot of forced sellers in the stock markets - possibly because they'd borrowed money to buy the shares in the first place. If the forced sellers have worked through the system that's probably helped raise prices.

They say never sell at a loss, but sometimes it makes sense to do so - if you sell at a loss to buy a different share that rapidly rises, you make money or at least reduce the loss.

Edited by blankster

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All the shares in my small portfolio are still in loss, so I'm not selling! I guess a lot of people are the same.

When things were really bad a few months ago, as with houses, there were probably a lot of forced sellers in the stock markets - possibly because they'd borrowed money to buy the shares in the first place. If the forced sellers have worked through the system that's probably helped raise prices.

a perfect example of my point, thank you.

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So it's usual to pick losers?

In a sense, yes. Its like betting on horses.

People would say "pick winners" but really the thing to do is to pick the mispriced horse.

However, if half the runners have had their legs broken with a man with a hammer, its easier to pick winners for a bit.

RBS or Goldman Sachs?

Edited by Cogs

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QUOTE: having observed the markets for some time i have noticed that when company results are good, down go the shares and when they are bad, up go the shares. so its only logical that as result after result is bad, up go the shares.

There is an element of psychology in this that is interesting. It is widely know that, among gambling addicts, the addictive power of losing is stronger than that of winning. It is possible that the shere thrill of losing money on a crashing market has the addicts out in force buying as much as they can.

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All the newly digitally minted QE lolly, which has and continues to be sloshed out by the central banks, is not only affecting inflation sentiment, but it's finding its way into the stock markets, even though the financial system is in complete tilt, stocks are going up by default.

Also gold should now be taking it a bit easier with a summer low in prices, but that as well is going up.

Edited by Take Me Back To London!

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