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loginandtonic

Noticable Number Of New For Sale Signs Popping Up

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over the past 7 days i am seeing a fairly obvious new number of for sale signs being erected not only in my own street but on thoroughfares i drive, quite a few more than this time last month and i think one or two solds have reverted to for sales.

is this a seasonal summer slow down again or is it the end of the sweet spot and hallucinatory recovery ?

if this is just a summer slow down, how can prices not drop significantly let alone march upwards over Q4 2009 or 2010 in the obviously poor employment environment once the economy is taken off the qe and zirp drip?

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over the past 7 days i am seeing a fairly obvious new number of for sale signs being erected not only in my own street but on thoroughfares i drive, quite a few more than this time last month and i think one or two solds have reverted to for sales.

is this a seasonal summer slow down again or is it the end of the sweet spot and hallucinatory recovery ?

if this is just a summer slow down, how can prices not drop significantly let alone march upwards over Q4 2009 or 2010 in the obviously poor employment environment once the economy is taken off the qe and zirp drip?

I have noticed a definite increase in price drops in the Midlands in the last week as well as a significant increase in 'STC' returning to 'Available'

My view is that we have ended the 'return to normal' phase and started, although tentatively, the next leg down.

Sellers who haven't exchanged yet have now missed out although I guess the majority don't know it yet.

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I have noticed on my short 30 minute drive to work a substantial jump in the available properties for sale. Probably less than 10% of them are sold stc a few have come back as for sale again in last few weeks although not sure why.

Given that the guy at the Nationwide said it was only supply that was keeping prices from falling i think we are in for further falls now as more property on the market means more buyer choice and bargaining power over price.

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I have noticed a definite increase in price drops in the Midlands in the last week as well as a significant increase in 'STC' returning to 'Available'

My view is that we have ended the 'return to normal' phase and started, although tentatively, the next leg down.

Sellers who haven't exchanged yet have now missed out although I guess the majority don't know it yet.

one can but imagine that if the mirage of ultra-low IRs and supposed deflation 'feel good' injection can do no more than just dab the brakes of a price retracement, imagine what reality can do if IRs and lending multiples were where they should be - i'd say a long way down from here

I have noticed on my short 30 minute drive to work a substantial jump in the available properties for sale. Probably less than 10% of them are sold stc a few have come back as for sale again in last few weeks although not sure why.

Given that the guy at the Nationwide said it was only supply that was keeping prices from falling i think we are in for further falls now as more property on the market means more buyer choice and bargaining power over price.

yes i nearly dropped my cafetiere when i heard that surprising candour from the N !

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Given that the guy at the Nationwide said it was only supply that was keeping prices from falling i think we are in for further falls now as more property on the market means more buyer choice and bargaining power over price.

Yes, but not in Maidstone.

Edited by juvenal

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I have noticed an increase in the number of houses for sale in the last few weeks in the areas I'm looking in, using rightmove. I'm guessing that the recent confidence of a recovereh bull trap is helping.

Is there any stats on how many houses rightmove have with them, versus time?

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I have noticed on my short 30 minute drive to work a substantial jump in the available properties for sale. Probably less than 10% of them are sold stc a few have come back as for sale again in last few weeks although not sure why.

Given that the guy at the Nationwide said it was only supply that was keeping prices from falling i think we are in for further falls now as more property on the market means more buyer choice and bargaining power over price.

The Nationwise is wrong. It is only the (fast disappearing) volume of buyers with big deposits that have kept prices from falling. This delay of the crash is more about demand than supply.

However, applying a simple neo-classical economic analysis to the housing market is flawed as the price is not set merely by 'supply' and 'demand' in the simplest term. Demand in the housing market cannot be derived merely from 'I want that, i am prepared to pay the price'. Likewise, it is wrong to say 'fewer houses means the price has gone up'.

You must remember that the demand in this market is a function of (amongst other factors) the availability finance and the size of available deposits.

We know that the availability of mortgages has dropped and this manifests itself in various guises such as low LTV's, low volumes of approvals & completions and stringent valuations etc.

So, if the prices have stabilised and the amounts advanced per transaction has fallen, it can only be because deposits are higher. The stats (cant be bothered to find examples - theres plenty around though) back this up.

Furthermore, supply in this market is not determined by price. In the past people may have thought ' I will sell when the house is worth £200k' but that is not the case anymore. And when the volume of repo's starts to climb, this percieved relationship between volumes available & price will be even more fractured.

Edited by Nick Dastardly

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judging by the queues at poundland and similar, and the scrum of buyers at the charity shops, and the queues outside the jobcentres, and the 1/4 to 1/2 page of job ads ("become a plumber!" ... "Join Scarlet and become a driving instructor - if you give us several grand, ooh ta very much that'll do nicely") i'd day that the cards arent stacked in a vendor's favour in most cases unless theres some sort of vital fact i am too dumb to notice. yet there are people who are not just bluffing to offload their property, they genuinely cannot imagine a UK where a house can be anything short of a goldmine always increasing in value come what may economically. people work their a$$ off to be able to buy a property here and what do you get - a pretty poor build usually, inferior quality of life and huge taxes compared to many other countries. its one of life's mysteries why everyone wants to be here, but maybe i just dont understand. given half a chance i'd gladly pack up and move abroad where the same money would buy a great deal more, space to move about, fresher air to breathe, and MPs who dont steal from their public while pretending to be working for them.

Edited by loginandtonic

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over the past 7 days i am seeing a fairly obvious new number of for sale signs being erected not only in my own street but on thoroughfares i drive, quite a few more than this time last month and i think one or two solds have reverted to for sales.

is this a seasonal summer slow down again or is it the end of the sweet spot and hallucinatory recovery ?

if this is just a summer slow down, how can prices not drop significantly let alone march upwards over Q4 2009 or 2010 in the obviously poor employment environment once the economy is taken off the qe and zirp drip?

By way of an anecdotal, we have recently put our house on the market. It took about a month to go from first contact with the EA to a sign outside the house and a listing on RM.

We have so far had 4 viewing this week, two of whom didn't like it and one of whom wants to see it again at the w/e (the fourth came today, so I haven't had feedback yet).

The estate agent recommended putting it on 13% below peak, and being prepared to accept 20% below peak. We shall see.

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By way of an anecdotal, we have recently put our house on the market. It took about a month to go from first contact with the EA to a sign outside the house and a listing on RM.

We have so far had 4 viewing this week, two of whom didn't like it and one of whom wants to see it again at the w/e (the fourth came today, so I haven't had feedback yet).

The estate agent recommended putting it on 13% below peak, and being prepared to accept 20% below peak. We shall see.

interesting, so they were in no hurry to get it listed and pay for an erector (no giggling at the back!)

13% below peak? thats very precise, the adult numeracy classes must have arrived in your EA's town!

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13% below peak? thats very precise, the adult numeracy classes must have arrived in your EA's town!

Nah - they're just a bit rough at converting 1/8 to percentages... ;-)

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judging by the queues at poundland and similar, and the scrum of buyers at the charity shops, and the queues outside the jobcentres, and the 1/4 to 1/2 page of job ads ("become a plumber!" ... "Join Scarlet and become a driving instructor - if you give us several grand, ooh ta very much that'll do nicely") i'd day that the cards arent stacked in a vendor's favour in most cases unless theres some sort of vital fact i am too dumb to notice. yet there are people who are not just bluffing to offload their property, they genuinely cannot imagine a UK where a house can be anything short of a goldmine always increasing in value come what may economically. people work their a$$ off to be able to buy a property here and what do you get - a pretty poor build usually, inferior quality of life and huge taxes compared to many other countries. its one of life's mysteries why everyone wants to be here, but maybe i just dont understand. given half a chance i'd gladly pack up and move abroad where the same money would buy a great deal more, space to move about, fresher air to breathe, and MPs who dont steal from their public while pretending to be working for them.
..........

I'll explain. Those at the top do extremely well here, as do the feckless and reckless. Funded by the mug rump of society. I guess you are in my club.

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Nah - they're just a bit rough at converting 1/8 to percentages... ;-)

:)

;)

..........

I'll explain. Those at the top do extremely well here, as do the feckless and reckless. Funded by the mug rump of society. I guess you are in my club.

thats why they call it treasure island here, but now more of the spiv natives are fighting to gain ground and shafting their fellows -it could turn very ugly indeed

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By way of an anecdotal, we have recently put our house on the market. It took about a month to go from first contact with the EA to a sign outside the house and a listing on RM.

We have so far had 4 viewing this week, two of whom didn't like it and one of whom wants to see it again at the w/e (the fourth came today, so I haven't had feedback yet).

The estate agent recommended putting it on 13% below peak, and being prepared to accept 20% below peak. We shall see.

This is not so where I live, we have home for sale. First seen be EA a week ago, now on market with board up. Went on officially yesterday, have had 3 viewings and have 3 more booked.

My son is also looking to buy in the same place (different price point). He is competing to buy a house that has had 40+ viewings and has only been on the market for a week!

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interesting, so they were in no hurry to get it listed and pay for an erector (no giggling at the back!)

13% below peak? thats very precise, the adult numeracy classes must have arrived in your EA's town!

Nah - 13% below peak on my street is just a nice round number - the EA suggested the number, I worked out the %

It was the hip that held it up the most.

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This is not so where I live, we have home for sale. First seen be EA a week ago, now on market with board up. Went on officially yesterday, have had 3 viewings and have 3 more booked.

My son is also looking to buy in the same place (different price point). He is competing to buy a house that has had 40+ viewings and has only been on the market for a week!

Yup, definitely a bit slower than that round here so far, although it only officially went on the market yesterday.

Ah well I'm in no hurry myself, although I'll get a clip round the ear if the wife reads that.

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