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Joey Buttafueco Jr

Bba Loans For Home Approvals: 35235

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stats230709.jpg

stats230709_value_approved.jpg

Thats a real up swing in approvals for house purchases but nothing at all for MEW

BUT net lending still downwards ish

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Edited by swankyman

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People are

showing little appetite for unsecured borrowing and are generally keeping more money in their

accounts.

“Borrowing by non-financial companies continues to be weak, either because funds raised on capital

markets are replacing bank borrowing or because companies are seeking to withstand the recession

by reducing their debt".

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I like this bit....see, bankers have got their priorities right

Manufacturing – £ 0.4 bn + £ 0.1 bn – £ 0.1 bn £ 20 bn

Construction – £ 0.1 bn – £ 0.2 bn – £ 0.2 bn £ 21 bn

Wholesale & retail trade – £ 0.4 bn – £ 0.1 bn – £ 0.2 bn £ 29 bn

Real estate + £ 0.1 bn + £ 0.2 bn + £ 0.3 bn £ 153 bn

Business Services – £ 0.3 bn – £ 0.2 bn – £ 0.3 bn £ 28 bn

Public admin & defence + £ 1.5 bn + £ 0.3 bn + £ 0.1 bn £ 8 bn

Transport, storage &

communications – £ 0.2 bn

less lending to production, MORE to non production.

come on Merv, Brown, Cameron....KICK THESE FRACKERS WHERE I HURTS FFS.

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Average mortgage lending from previous 6 months = £3.1 BN

Mortgage lending from June = £2.6 BN

So June is quite a bit lower than the 6 month average.

It's interesting to see where the money is going a tiny

fraction to real estate +0.1 BN and public services and

defence get = +1.5%

Real estate got +0.2 last month so we are actually had

less this month.

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Isn't the figure required for HPI something like 70,000?

70,000, yes thats a good price for a 3 bed semi in the sticks.

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And here’s the comparison between the BBA and the BoE approvals including the lending panel data up to Jun/09, seasonally adjusted. Note that BBA is a partial count, and runs at around about 59% of the BoE figures (hence scaled here).

atluv5.jpg

BBA historical time series, XLS

http://www.bba.org.uk/content/1/c6/01/16/8...time_series.xls

Edited by spline

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And here’s the comparison between the BBA and the BoE approvals including the lending panel data up to Jun/09, seasonally adjusted. Note that BBA is a partial count, and runs at around about 59% of the BoE figures (hence scaled here).

Unless I'm looking at a different set of numbers I don't think the constant 1/0.59 scaling is valid, Spline. The relationship between BBA and BoE approvals is too variable.

Over the past 12 months for example the ratio has averaged 0.69. In May 2009 it was 0.735.

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Obviously there's no strict relationship as it all depends on market share, and historically it’s drifted all over the place, but taking a broad scaling of 0.59 allows the graphs to put alongside and gives some indication of how they are similar.

But agree that we can’t expect to predict the next BoE precisely by doing the scaling, that’s why I’ve left out the BoE Jun/09 and added the lending panel data by way of extension.

Edited by spline

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Updated chart:

BBAapprovals0609.gif

Thanks. Still looks pretty low to me but if this 'lack of supply' reported continues prices will be supported. Will be interesting to see how much of these approvals get translated into actual transaction volumes.

Edited by Ash4781

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