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I Just Don't Get It?

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Guest Daddy Bear

S&P index over last 3 months has had the steepest gain in 70 years (37% from its low in March)

Commodity index (CRB) is up 27% from its low

UK House Prices (according to the Nationwide) have risen in 5 of the last 6 months

Food Prices are rising

Energy Prices are rising

Oil has risen over 100% since its low of $37 per barrel

FTSE has risen nearly a 1000 points in the last 6 months

UK Bond Market has not collapsed

What is going on?

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Guest Daddy Bear
It's the Sphinx Crash. Just do what everyone else is doing and smile inscrutably at De Nile.

Alternatively hindsight (in a few years) may show us that this was the start of the "dash for assets".

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S&P index over last 3 months has had the steepest gain in 70 years (37% from its low in March)

Commodity index (CRB) is up 27% from its low

UK House Prices (according to the Nationwide) have risen in 5 of the last 6 months

Food Prices are rising

Energy Prices are rising

Oil has risen over 100% since its low of $37 per barrel

FTSE has risen nearly a 1000 points in the last 6 months

UK Bond Market has not collapsed

What is going on?

Calm before the storm dear boy!

When it looks all wrong, feels all wrong, smells all wrong and tastes all wrong, it is a sure bet it is all wrong!

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S&P index over last 3 months has had the steepest gain in 70 years (37% from its low in March)

Commodity index (CRB) is up 27% from its low

UK House Prices (according to the Nationwide) have risen in 5 of the last 6 months

Food Prices are rising

Energy Prices are rising

Oil has risen over 100% since its low of $37 per barrel

FTSE has risen nearly a 1000 points in the last 6 months

UK Bond Market has not collapsed

What is going on?

You're holding the charts upside down again. :rolleyes:

S&P 500 is down from 1550 to just 950

CRB has fallen from 465 to 246

House prices are down 20%

Oil has fallen from $147 to just $65

FTSE is down from 6750 to 4480 (33%)

Unemployment is rising

Salaries are being cut

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Guest Daddy Bear
You're holding the charts upside down again. :rolleyes:

S&P 500 is down from 1550 to just 950

CRB has fallen from 465 to 246

House prices are down 20%

Oil has fallen from $147 to just $65

FTSE is down from 6750 to 4480 (33%)

Unemployment is rising

Salaries are being cut

You're holding the charts upside down again.

We'll see who the monkey is in 2 years time

ps - why they all risin now - or is this just an unsustainable bounce?

Edited by Daddy Bear

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We'll see who the monkey is in 2 years time

ps - why they all risin now - or is this just an unsustainable bounce?

"Daddy monkey" does not have the same ring.

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S&P index over last 3 months has had the steepest gain in 70 years (37% from its low in March)

Commodity index (CRB) is up 27% from its low

UK House Prices (according to the Nationwide) have risen in 5 of the last 6 months

Food Prices are rising

Energy Prices are rising

Oil has risen over 100% since its low of $37 per barrel

FTSE has risen nearly a 1000 points in the last 6 months

UK Bond Market has not collapsed

What is going on?

Same dead cat bounce and subsequent volatility happened in the Great Depression on the inexorable path to the bottom. Although your early dash for assets theory could hold some weight, they didn't have QE in the Great Depression.

Edited by General Congreve

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Guest Steve Cook

History is repeating itself.

The Great depression of the 30s was, as now, triggered by the bursting of a massive credit bubble.

Between 1929 and 1932, the Dow Jones index in the US fell by an unprecedented (and, up to now, unrepeated) 89%. However, on the way down the market experienced six major rallies. One of these, in 1930, took the Dow Jones Index up by 52.2 per cent in just 105 days.

Looking to the present. For the last few decades, the driving force of the world economy has been the willingness of Western consumers to go further and further into debt. That permitted businesses to expand sales and profits and also allowed our governments to claim the possibility of never-ending, perpetual growth.

Consumers are not going further into debt. Bankers are not lending them more money. Their houses are not going to go up in price to any significant degree. So, they have nothing to borrow against.

And now, after working our whole lives in a growing global economy, we are all going to have to work out how to survive in a shrinking one

The party's over.

Now the real pain begins.

Edited by Steve Cook

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S&P index over last 3 months has had the steepest gain in 70 years (37% from its low in March)

Commodity index (CRB) is up 27% from its low

UK House Prices (according to the Nationwide) have risen in 5 of the last 6 months

Food Prices are rising

Energy Prices are rising

Oil has risen over 100% since its low of $37 per barrel

FTSE has risen nearly a 1000 points in the last 6 months

UK Bond Market has not collapsed

What is going on?

well, you've protected yourself from the non-existent not going to happen inflationary tsunami.

So well done you, your house has also in the last few months, no wonder your so smug. i would be also.

but i'd stop peddling the garbabge about global default on debt and bond market collapse. you know it's nonsense. you've bought a cheap house, what more do you want ?

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History is repeating itself.

The Great depression of the 30s was, as now, triggered by the bursting of a massive credit bubble.

Between 1929 and 1932, the Dow Jones index in the US fell by an unprecedented (and, up to now, unrepeated) 89%. However, on the way down the market experienced six major rallies. One of these, in 1930, took the Dow Jones Index up by 52.2 per cent in just 105 days.

Looking to the present. For the last few decades, the driving force of the world economy has been the willingness of Western consumers to go further and further into debt. That permitted businesses to expand sales and profits and also allowed our governments to claim the possibility of never-ending, perpetual growth.

Consumers are not going further into debt. Bankers are not lending them more money. Their houses are not going to go up in price to any significant degree. So, they have nothing to borrow against.

And now, after working our whole lives in a growing global economy, we are all going to have to work out how to survive in a shrinking one

The party's over.

Now the real pain begins.

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well, you've protected yourself from the non-existent not going to happen inflationary tsunami.

So well done you, your house has also in the last few months, no wonder your so smug. i would be also.

but i'd stop peddling the garbabge about global default on debt and bond market collapse. you know it's nonsense. you've bought a cheap house, what more do you want ?

according to DB, we are going to get hyperinflation but he does not like gold = does not compute

edit - he favours that portable liquid asset called housing :unsure:

Edited by p.p.

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What a miserable bunch of doom mongers there are that dominate this forum! :lol:

Another point of view....

The recession was milder in Asia than the rest of the world, that region now appears to be in recovery.

The US appears to have bottomed. Corporate earnings thus far this reporting season are generally encouraging.

Europe will probably emerge from the doldrums last but the feefall we were seeing last winter seems to have been arrested.

In short, it is/has been a nasty downturn. There is no doubt more pain to come. Recovery will be slow and patchy but it will, as it always has, come.

IMO the worst is over.

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The babyboomers are about to retire, the pension system is on the brink of collapse if share prices fall any further it's game over.

Perhaps they are manipulating the system in a last ditch attempt to stop the fraud being revealed?

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What a miserable bunch of doom mongers there are that dominate this forum! :lol:

Another point of view....

The recession was milder in Asia than the rest of the world, that region now appears to be in recovery.

The US appears to have bottomed. Corporate earnings thus far this reporting season are generally encouraging.

Europe will probably emerge from the doldrums last but the feefall we were seeing last winter seems to have been arrested.

In short, it is/has been a nasty downturn. There is no doubt more pain to come. Recovery will be slow and patchy but it will, as it always has, come.

IMO the worst is over.

+ 1

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It's going to be at least 5 years before we start paying off the massive government debt this depression will bring.

Our consumption based economy needs to rebalance before we can pay off the debts. Only then will we get any true recovery. I'm looking at more like 2020 for a recovery.

Anything before then is just noise... wealth holders scrambling around trying to retain their positions.

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I'm looking at more like 2020 for a recovery.

So my bright, educated 19 yr old son faces waiting until he is at least 30 before he will earn enough to raise a family and afford to buy a family sized house and a decent car, furniture, holidays etc.

I had all that at 24.

He is from a comfortable middle income family.

I was brought up on a council estate where we lived from week to week.

WTF? I understand that the economy is different but how can it be that different? If I'd had my son's advantages in the early 80s I'd probably be a wealthy man by now.

No way should the timing of your birth outweigh all other factors. It makes no sense. Its as if life is just a lottery, a joke.

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We'll see who the monkey is in 2 years time

ps - why they all risin now - or is this just an unsustainable bounce?

Well, let me tell you a story about a story.

A while back there was a very smart chap who spun a marvelous yarn and caught everyone in it. It was all about inflation [and its dark twin] and how it could be mechanically controlled by a money-making lever. The story seemed the best on offer at the time so by general consensus it was deemed to be true. The mechanical consequences of this story are quite astonishing for now all it takes is for a certain bearded man to pull the money-making lever, or to credibly threaten to do so, and the people, well actually only those with money, obediently rush to spend some of their money on "real" assets. :lol:

Those without much money, comprising most of the population, have never heard this strange money story and instinctively choose intead to clutch on to the little money they have.

Edited by roman holiday

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So my bright, educated 19 yr old son faces waiting until he is at least 30 before he will earn enough to raise a family and afford to buy a family sized house and a decent car, furniture, holidays etc.

I had all that at 24.

He is from a comfortable middle income family.

I was brought up on a council estate where we lived from week to week.

WTF? I understand that the economy is different but how can it be that different? If I'd had my son's advantages in the early 80s I'd probably be a wealthy man by now.

No way should the timing of your birth outweigh all other factors. It makes no sense. Its as if life is just a lottery, a joke.

Every cloud has a silver lining. :rolleyes:

truman-show-1.jpg

Edited by roman holiday

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Whats going on???

I think we're standing on the edge of cliff staring down to the rocks of self destruction!!! the trouble is no one can say how high the cliff is!!!

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Whats going on???

I think we're standing on the edge of cliff staring down to the rocks of self destruction!!! the trouble is no one can say how high the cliff is!!!

Life will go on to bigger and better things. Just like it did for poor Truman no doubt when he stepped outside. :rolleyes:

Edited by roman holiday

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You're holding the charts upside down again. :rolleyes:

S&P 500 is down from 1550 to just 950

CRB has fallen from 465 to 246

House prices are down 20%

Oil has fallen from $147 to just $65

FTSE is down from 6750 to 4480 (33%)

Unemployment is rising

Salaries are being cut

:lol:

don't let reality stand in the way of a good hyperinflation fantasy

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