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Hmrc Transactions For Jun/09

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As per title, the HMRC Transactions in Jun/09 are slightly up again and now YoY positive.

However, it's worth rembering that they peaked at 145k SA in Aug/07.

May/09 65k NSA 63k SA -23% YoY

June/09 75k NSA 65k SA +1.0% YoY

Updated Chart - new series, and historic old, NSA amd SA

oqepau.jpg

Property Transactions in the United Kingdom

http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/stats/survey_of_prop/menu.htm

Edited by spline

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Thanks Spline, still way off peak, and will be interesting to see what the new cyclical lows will be through winter....

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Thanks drrajio - I think it shows that the mortgage tap having been firmly closed is now being slowly opened again and approvals / transactions are now on a positive trend, and even just turning YoY positive. But the absolute level is very low, compare against the 2007 peak or even the 2005 dip, so it’s clear that the market is really being sustained by the low level of supply (sellers reluctant, moving and remortgage costs pushed up by stricter LTV).

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Thanks drrajio - I think it shows that the mortgage tap having been firmly closed is now being slowly opened again and approvals / transactions are now on a positive trend, and even just turning YoY positive. But the absolute level is very low, compare against the 2007 peak or even the 2005 dip, so it’s clear that the market is really being sustained by the low level of supply (sellers reluctant, moving and remortgage costs pushed up by stricter LTV).

Thanks Spline, confirmation that approvals really are turning into completions.

(Are you listening Bloo Loo)

Agreed, the mortgage tap is slowly opening once again. And the recent BoE 'Trends in Lending' survey stated that lenders are planning to both increase lending slightly whilst also relaxing borrowing criteria in Q3.

Interesting times.

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Thanks Spline, confirmation that approvals really are turning into completions.

(Are you listening Bloo Loo)

Agreed, the mortgage tap is slowly opening once again. And the recent BoE 'Trends in Lending' survey stated that lenders are planning to both increase lending slightly whilst also relaxing borrowing criteria in Q3.

Interesting times.

Is that confirmation that you are Rinoa?

p-o-p

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Is that confirmation that you are Rinoa?

p-o-p

No. I had a discussion with her on this the other day.

She has a bee in her bonnet re approvals, so it's not surprising she had the same argument with others.

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Given that these are prime months for selling/buying houses in the UK, anyone hasard a guess at transaction levels in the grim months of Oct/Nov/Dec/Jan....? ;)

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Is that confirmation that you are Rinoa?

p-o-p

I think it's pretty bloody obvious that Dino is Rinoa!

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I think it's pretty bloody obvious that Dino is Rinoa!

Ther's a poster using Mopa and another using Moopa. Which one of those are you?

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Im Rinoa!

Seriously I read at the global place that Rinoa may be posting under another name after the recent cull of bulls. Personally the more bulls the better, its a shame that they all disappeared at the same time

Thanks again spline, interesting stuff as usual :)

Edited by moosetea

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Ther's a poster using Mopa and another using Moopa. Which one of those are you?

When I first pointed out that Rinoa was AKA Columbo, Rinoa denied it before later admiting it, ie a lie :rolleyes:.

Dino=Rinoa=Colombo=Multi-ID VI Troll=BMV flipper.

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Ther's a poster using Mopa and another using Moopa. Which one of those are you?

You have only been on the site for a few days and yet you singled Bloo Loo out in your post.

Just like old times eh? :)

Edited by MOP

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When I first pointed out that Rinoa was AKA Columbo, Rinoa denied it before later admiting it, ie a lie :rolleyes:.

Dino=Rinoa=Colombo=Multi-ID VI Troll=BMV flipper.

Lies lies lies.

I'm sure that it's pure coincidence that Dino's turned up a few days after Ringpiece was banned and starts posting in exactly the same style. :rolleyes:

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You have only been on the site for a few days and yet you singled Bloo Loo out in your post.

Just like old times eh? :)

Dino wants to lick me all over. thinks Im Fred Flintstone.

more to the point the figures prove nothing about completions v approvals.

could be that there are 50% cash buyers and, i dunno, 20% approvals failures... there is no way of telling.

Like the CML saying FTB multiples are less than 3 on average... its meaningless, in the case of the CML, ass covering.

Edited by Bloo Loo

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I'm Rinoa, and so's my wife.

People who are buying now with heavy deposits have no experience of a general deflationary enviroment. Since the 70s inflation has always been possible. Recessions all happened during high inflation.

Investors in any asset class are catching a falling knife. (obviously specific shares, houses, commodities will buck the trend)

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Thanks Spline, confirmation that approvals really are turning into completions.

(Are you listening Bloo Loo)

Agreed, the mortgage tap is slowly opening once again. And the recent BoE 'Trends in Lending' survey stated that lenders are planning to both increase lending slightly whilst also relaxing borrowing criteria in Q3.

Interesting times.

Whether they go up or down is somewhat debatable at the moment, but the sustainability of it isn't, as far as I can tell. And you lot think that it's a good thing, that no one has ever managed to explain... Weird.

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more to the point the figures prove nothing about completions v approvals.

Following my comment that transactions had increased you asked for proof of completions, claiming approvals were not evidence of any increase.

I suggested that rising CML loan numbers were also increasing, which you adamantly claimed weren't competetions, so again didn't prove transactions were rising.

Spline has now confirmed what you fervently denied - transactions are increasing.

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Following my comment that transactions had increased you asked for proof of completions, claiming approvals were not evidence of any increase.

I suggested that rising CML loan numbers were also increasing, which you adamantly claimed weren't competetions, so again didn't prove transactions were rising.

Spline has now confirmed what you fervently denied - transactions are increasing.

Spline's web page is also predicting we will be at 0% HPI YoY by December - i.e. prices static throughout 2009. Interesting.

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Following my comment that transactions had increased you asked for proof of completions, claiming approvals were not evidence of any increase.

I suggested that rising CML loan numbers were also increasing, which you adamantly claimed weren't competetions, so again didn't prove transactions were rising.

Spline has now confirmed what you fervently denied - transactions are increasing.

I did have this exact same conversation with Rinoa....odd...

you are making a claim that isnt provable with the figures. Completions in SPlines data are way above approvals, so, clearly, approvals do not lead to completions on their own, so i challenge you to show me where cash buyers begin and mortgaged buyers end...as i say, 50% of completions could be cash...meaning approvals numbers are short of their final completions.

the figures just dont say.

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I did have this exact same conversation with Rinoa....odd...

you are making a claim that isnt provable with the figures. Completions in SPlines data are way above approvals, so, clearly, approvals do not lead to completions on their own, so i challenge you to show me where cash buyers begin and mortgaged buyers end...as i say, 50% of completions could be cash...meaning approvals numbers are short of their final completions.

the figures just dont say.

A classic example of goal post moving.

I claimed transactions were rising here, not approvals. You demanded completion figures as proof.

Spline has now confirmed transaction figures are rising. So my claim was correct.

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A classic example of goal post moving.

I claimed transactions were rising here, not approvals. You demanded completion figures as proof.

Spline has now confirmed transaction figures are rising. So my claim was correct.

no, you said as approvals were rising, this would lead to higher completions.

I say you cant say that, as clearly many completions are cash, not loans based. You are lucky that cash transactions are way up there.

this is confirmed anecdotally by EAs that post....interest is great from cash buyers.

for me, this is interesting as the number of cash buyers is more likely to peter out than mortgage based ones at this time.

thats all.

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