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toodimm

The Changing Demographic Of Hpc

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I’ve just been doing a bit of very unscientific data gathering on the poster here.

Of the posters who were active at the end of 2004, only about 20% are still active now. Of the currently active posters 44% joined in 2008 or later.

My reading of this is that the vast majority of the people who saw this mess coming have now left the board. And that the current posters are composed of a large percentage who only started to post on this site after the economic problems were obvious to the mainstream media. The people who were able to correctly predict top of the markets now no longer feel that there is anything left to say, and there are a lot of people who are simply jumping on the obvious downtrend.

I’m am still convinced by the likes of Denninger, that the worst is still yet to come, however the change of posters on this board is inclining me to reconsider this view.

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Why?

Just because someone joined after the obvious doesn't mean they didn't predict or saw it coming, although to be fair some people do have ample evidence of posts elsewhere stating that this was going to happen.

Agreed not a very scientific study.

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I’ve just been doing a bit of very unscientific data gathering on the poster here.

Of the posters who were active at the end of 2004, only about 20% are still active now. Of the currently active posters 44% joined in 2008 or later.

My reading of this is that the vast majority of the people who saw this mess coming have now left the board. And that the current posters are composed of a large percentage who only started to post on this site after the economic problems were obvious to the mainstream media. The people who were able to correctly predict top of the markets now no longer feel that there is anything left to say, and there are a lot of people who are simply jumping on the obvious downtrend.

I’m am still convinced by the likes of Denninger, that the worst is still yet to come, however the change of posters on this board is inclining me to reconsider this view.

Personally I'm more interested in when/whether its all going to end up... ;)

Edited by Neverland

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Why?

Just because someone joined after the obvious doesn't mean they didn't predict or saw it coming, although to be fair some people do have ample evidence of posts elsewhere stating that this was going to happen.

Agreed not a very scientific study.

A lot of people were very uneasy before 2008, as they watched prices recede beyong their means. Northern Rock and the crunch propelled them here, and gave them a wider perspective on what they felt already. I don't think they were simply bandwaggoneers.

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Does not take into account long time lurkers.

Or people stupid enough to have forgotten their passwords multiple times and have had to change user name - erm - like me.

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There used to be a lot more bulls...

It would be nice to hear from the old lot though.

Many are still available elsewhere.

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My gut feeling is you are right: Many of the posters that I found most interesting when I started have fallen silent. The typical quality of debates and posts is well down. Most of the time now I find the OT forum more interesting than the main forum - probably part of a well trodden path to becoming inactive.

But every dog has it's day, for everything there is a season and other similar cliches. You cant keep debating in 2009 like the it's still 2007.

That said, I have noticed a lot more low post-count oldies who predate me posting recently: A reaction to the recovereh, perhaps?

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I'm not particularly interested in the house price crash, but I am interested in the overall economic situation.

I ignored this site for years, as I thought it was limited to UK house prices, and only joined when I realised my error.

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It would also be interesting to see what percentage of ex-posters have left HPC due to buying property and therefore have no reason to linger?

Hmm, not sure how relevant this is : Plenty on here, myself included, are on here for broader reasons, many of us own outright.

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Just because someone joined after the obvious doesn't mean they didn't predict or saw it coming,

True in the individual cases, but what supprised me, was such a huge percentage of the more recent posts is comprised of people who joined relatively recently. Also, 20% of the original posters a tiny number still to be active here.

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What happened to Goldfinger? I liked his goldbug predictions. :P

I lurked long before I created an account here. And when I finally did I put down "Neither" because I didn't feel qualified to comment in the face of such erudition.

Still don't, really, so yeah, I guess I'm playing my part in dumbing down the board. :ph34r:

Edited by EUBanana

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It's a forum. People leave and join, and regardless of subject matter the active user count is always biased towards more recent joiners.

It would also be interesting to see what percentage of ex-posters have left HPC due to buying property and therefore have no reason to linger?

You'd need to balance that up with those who've disappeared because, when all is said and done, they had no actual interest in house prices in the first place. There were plenty of 'em, that's for sure.

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It's a forum. People leave and join

Yes, but its a forum about house prices where people made the effort to make regular posts. To only be left with 20% of those original people, particularly when the argument has swung dramatically in their direction, seem quite unlikley. Unless however those people have seen the drop that they were expecting, and don't believe in the appocolyptic predictions.

Edited by toodimm

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What happened to Goldfinger? I liked his goldbug predictions. :P

I lurked long before I created an account here. And when I finally did I put down "Neither" because I didn't feel qualified to comment in the face of such erudition.

Still don't, really, so yeah, I guess I'm playing my part in dumbing down the board. :ph34r:

He kept talking about the shiney yellow stuff! That is frowned upon by the PTB here.

The shiney yellow stuff obsessives eventually went away to form some sort of shiney yellow stuff forum.

Now you've mentioned the shiney yellow stuff, expect OT-dom.....

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The Victorians would visit the local lunatic asylum to get their jollies. I find it much easier to visit HPC. Does that help?

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True in the individual cases, but what supprised me, was such a huge percentage of the more recent posts is comprised of people who joined relatively recently. Also, 20% of the original posters a tiny number still to be active here.

Well I'm new to posting after lurking a while...

I think people eventually get bored of the general level of negativity/flaming and low quality of debate on a lot of the threads :unsure:

There is a general lack of "listening skills" among many posters - its all "I'm right because I'm clever, you're wrong and you have a tiny kn1b as well" :angry:

The general level of hatred and abuse for BTL landlords and anyone who might suggest any bullish arguments fro house prices is staggering to me :blink:

Plus the overuse of emoticons by certain people is also a turn off :P

(Steels himself for abuse) :(

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Yes, but its a forum about house prices where people made the effort to make regular posts. To only be left with 20% of those original people, particularly when the argument has swung dramatically in their direction, seem quite unlikley. Unless however those people have seen the drop that they were expecting, and don't believe in the appocolyptic predictions.

It's worth remembering how many of said predictions were of zero relevance to the site, and of every relevance to certain people's "investments".

450px-Replica_rocket.jpg

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What happened to Goldfinger? I liked his goldbug predictions. :P

I lurked long before I created an account here. And when I finally did I put down "Neither" because I didn't feel qualified to comment in the face of such erudition.

Still don't, really, so yeah, I guess I'm playing my part in dumbing down the board. :ph34r:

From about 2006 I looked only at the front page; followed links around. Ending 2007, I began to read the forums too; I just about caught the tail-end of the really interesting arguments here. There was no way I could contribute usefully at that stage and I only joined in 2008 to seek out specific members other threads and posts.

in fact, I often look at the older arguments on this site and there's some really horrible portents on there. Certain individuals must have been detroyed financially, given the arguments they pursued. "It's different this time." I really wish they'd post updates.

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Well I'm new to posting after lurking a while...

I think people eventually get bored of the general level of negativity/flaming and low quality of debate on a lot of the threads :unsure:

There is a general lack of "listening skills" among many posters - its all "I'm right because I'm clever, you're wrong and you have a tiny kn1b as well" :angry:

The general level of hatred and abuse for BTL landlords and anyone who might suggest any bullish arguments fro house prices is staggering to me :blink:

Plus the overuse of emoticons by certain people is also a turn off :P

(Steels himself for abuse) :(

:angry: :P:rolleyes:

;)

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Well I've been here a long while, although hardly a prolific poster. Still, these days I seem to have a little less interest than I used to although I'm still enthusiastic. Reasons:

1. There's a limit to how many times you can have the same argument.

2. People came here to seek solace in being in the minority who believed house prices were crazy and had to come down. Now that's actually happening then there might be less need.

Personally, I think this site is still invaluable as there's still a long way to go and it helps to avoid the temptations of buying into the market too soon (and boy has it been a long wait!). There's still some serious waiting to do, so this site is great, but don't underestimate how repetitive it gets if you've been here a long time.

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Hmm, not sure how relevant this is : Plenty on here, myself included, are on here for broader reasons, many of us own outright.

Yes, perhaps. I'm obviously making the mistake of assuming posters are here for one reason only. Certainly, once i've got what I want (a reasonably priced family home) i'll be out of here. Selfish bar-steward that I am...

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I’ve just been doing a bit of very unscientific data gathering on the poster here.

Of the posters who were active at the end of 2004, only about 20% are still active now. Of the currently active posters 44% joined in 2008 or later.

My reading of this is that the vast majority of the people who saw this mess coming have now left the board. And that the current posters are composed of a large percentage who only started to post on this site after the economic problems were obvious to the mainstream media. The people who were able to correctly predict top of the markets now no longer feel that there is anything left to say, and there are a lot of people who are simply jumping on the obvious downtrend.

I’m am still convinced by the likes of Denninger, that the worst is still yet to come, however the change of posters on this board is inclining me to reconsider this view.

20% of active posters are still active since 2004... Its a great stat as there were relatively low numbers in 2004, it is amazing that 20% of us are the oldies! I think alot of forums see massive changes, however HPC lots of the members have stuck by and there has been less change than on other webforums. As prev poster says, it does get repetitive after a couple of years, I wish there were more graphs but ive got bored of posting them after a spree in 05/06.

Member 552 : Oct 2004 (Approaching 5 years of active posting!)

Edited by moosetea

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