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The Delusion Index

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The ratio of Rightmove to Nationwide prices shows a decent measure of delusion. People are always deluded with their initial prices (which is what RM measures), and Nationwide tracks what they eventually fall to.

It is interesting to see that the biggest delusion in the last 7 years was in May 2009, at 48%. Least deluded sellers were around at about the end of 2004.

See what you think...

             Nationwide     Rightmove      RatioJun-09       £156,442       £226,436       1.45May-09       £154,016       £227,441       1.48Apr-09       £151,861       £222,077       1.46Mar-09       £150,946       £218,081       1.44Feb-09       £147,746       £216,163       1.46Jan-09       £150,501       £213,570       1.42Dec-08       £153,048       £217,808       1.42Nov-08       £158,442       £222,979       1.41Oct-08       £158,872       £229,691       1.45Sep-08       £161,797       £227,438       1.41Aug-08       £164,654       £229,816       1.40Jul-08       £169,316       £235,219       1.39Jun-08       £172,415       £239,564       1.39May-08       £173,583       £242,500       1.40Apr-08       £178,555       £239,521       1.34Mar-08       £179,110       £239,655       1.34Feb-08       £179,358       £237,856       1.33Jan-08       £180,473       £230,428       1.28Dec-07       £182,080       £232,396       1.28Nov-07       £184,099       £239,986       1.30Oct-07       £186,044       £241,642       1.30Sep-07       £184,723       £235,176       1.27Aug-07       £183,898       £241,474       1.31Jul-07       £184,270       £240,001       1.30Jun-07       £184,070       £239,317       1.30May-07       £181,584       £237,361       1.31Apr-07       £180,314       £236,490       1.31Mar-07       £177,083       £228,183       1.29Feb-07       £174,706       £224,802       1.29Jan-07       £173,225       £222,859       1.29Dec-06       £173,746       £221,751       1.28Nov-06       £172,185       £222,333       1.29Oct-06       £169,623       £218,954       1.29Sep-06       £169,413       £214,566       1.27Aug-06       £167,721       £214,040       1.28Jul-06       £167,733       £217,580       1.30Jun-06       £165,730       £211,442       1.28May-06       £164,632       £209,829       1.27Apr-06       £163,573       £205,674       1.26Mar-06       £162,083       £203,399       1.25Feb-06       £158,573       £201,600       1.27Jan-06       £158,478       £196,319       1.24Dec-05       £157,250       £196,181       1.25Nov-05       £157,139       £197,855       1.26Oct-05       £157,107       £196,348       1.25Sep-05       £156,517       £195,407       1.25Aug-05       £157,310       £196,282       1.25Jul-05       £158,348       £196,649       1.24Jun-05       £157,791       £198,642       1.26May-05       £157,272       £198,147       1.26Apr-05       £156,128       £197,539       1.27Mar-05       £153,876       £194,962       1.27Feb-05       £152,879       £193,830       1.27Jan-05       £151,757       £189,509       1.25Dec-04       £152,623       £189,733       1.24Nov-04       £153,439       £190,329       1.24Oct-04       £152,159       £193,536       1.27Sep-04       £153,727       £192,316       1.25Aug-04       £153,743       £192,335       1.25Jul-04       £154,299       £196,198       1.27Jun-04       £151,524       £193,965       1.28May-04       £149,020       £188,962       1.27Apr-04       £145,918       £184,582       1.26Mar-04       £142,584       £179,570       1.26Feb-04       £138,730       £174,506       1.26Jan-04       £134,806       £170,935       1.27Dec-03       £135,444       £171,055       1.26Nov-03       £133,388       £170,547       1.28Oct-03       £131,947       £170,720       1.29Sep-03       £130,473       £165,265       1.27Aug-03       £129,258       £166,244       1.29Jul-03       £128,251       £166,207       1.30Jun-03       £127,214       £165,511       1.30May-03       £124,752       £163,393       1.31Apr-03       £122,748       £161,370       1.31Mar-03       £122,180       £160,536       1.31Feb-03       £118,521       £158,638       1.34Jan-03       £117,905       £155,481       1.32Dec-02       £117,206       £156,084       1.33Nov-02       £115,761       £155,199       1.34Oct-02       £113,665       £155,467       1.37Sep-02       £112,919       £151,429       1.34Aug-02       £110,890       £147,957       1.33

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A graph would be nice.

I'd do it myself, but it's a bit fiddly extracting your data.

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A graph would be nice.

I'd do it myself, but it's a bit fiddly extracting your data.

it's not too tricky since the 'columns' in the data are all by spaces.

basically what it shows is that 'delusion' was much lower durnig the boom than it is now, hovering consistently between about 1.25 and 1.30 from early 2003 to early 2008.

it started to climb rapidly in early spring 2008 and on recent form looks like it might go as high as 1.5

Edited by the flying pig

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it's not too tricky since the 'columns' in the data are all by spaces...

Go on then...

:)

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It might be argued that some of the properties advertised on rightmove are bought by cash buyers, whereas I believe the the Nationwide survey is done from customers who have borrowed money from them. So it could be possible that the Nationwide survey doesn't fully capture the sold prices. However I may be wrong on where the Nationwide get their data from and I'm getting ready to eat my words.

If there is a genuine effect, I don't know how much of the discrepancy between the initial listing price on rightmove and the selling price on Nationwide can be accounted for by it.

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Go on then...

:)

Indeed - I tried quickly - only to find stupid Excel taking the prices as text not formatted numbers - could be got around, but can't be bothered as it's more than a 30sec job

Edit: Ratio Graph now attached (maybe - first time I've tried to attach something, so please be patient... ;-) )

Delusioon_Index.pdf

Delusioon_Index.pdf

Edited by Lennon

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Incidentally, if houses are currently going for approximately 90% of asking price, then that initial asking price should be at around £175,000.

(not at the ridiculous £227,000 from Rightmove. Honestly. They need their servers kicked in...)

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Not from the OP's data, but here is my own 'delusion chart'

Picture1.jpg

Open markers on the chart are the raw data, ie RM/Other Index as a percent

Solid markers are normalised so that the minimum difference is set to 100% (to allow for issues such as cash only buyer etc).

post-13003-1248095760_thumb.jpg

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Where is the "comparing apples with oranges index"?

The differential between apples and oranges is alot less interesting than the differential between asking and selling prices.

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an interesting thing about the RM index is that Rinoa always used to try and characterise it as a 'lead indicator', arguing that where asking prices are today, selling prices will follow tomorrow.

but the data shows that this is patently wrong, since asking prices peaked considerably later than sold prices, spring 08 rather than summer 07, and never fell by anywhere near as much [the 'low' was 11.9% from peak, in jan 09]...

i wholeheartedly agree with those who argue that RM is worse than useless. it tells yuo nothing about anything of any interest.

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Where is the "comparing apples with oranges index"?

The Economist said in 2005 that rising property prices helped to prop up the world economy after the stockmarket bubble burst in 2000 and it estimated that the total value of residential property in developed economies rose by more than $30 trillion over the previous five years, to over $70 trillion, an increase equivalent to 100% of those countries' combined GDPs. The surge not only dwarfed any previous house-price boom, it was larger than the global stockmarket bubble in the late 1990s (an increase over five years of 80% of GDP) or America's stockmarket bubble in the late 1920s (55% of GDP). The Economist said that the rise looked like the biggest bubble in history. All that is happening right now is, Government as it all ways does reacting to past events, I believe unless people are willing to look to the future and make the hard and unpopular decisions we will just keep repeating the the same misstakes. The banks in the US have gambled the $ given to them by the government on shares, currency trades and look to have won! So the next bubble grows.

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The Economist said in 2005 that rising property prices helped to prop up the world economy after the stockmarket bubble burst in 2000 and it estimated that the total value of residential property in developed economies rose by more than $30 trillion over the previous five years, to over $70 trillion, an increase equivalent to 100% of those countries' combined GDPs. The surge not only dwarfed any previous house-price boom, it was larger than the global stockmarket bubble in the late 1990s (an increase over five years of 80% of GDP) or America's stockmarket bubble in the late 1920s (55% of GDP). The Economist said that the rise looked like the biggest bubble in history. All that is happening right now is, Government as it all ways does reacting to past events, I believe unless people are willing to look to the future and make the hard and unpopular decisions we will just keep repeating the the same misstakes. The banks in the US have gambled the $ given to them by the government on shares, currency trades and look to have won! So the next bubble grows.

Not sure what this has to do with my point!

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Not sure what this has to do with my point!

Are you arguing that Rightmove's data does not measure asking prices? As we're not interested in the absolute value of the ratio this comparison seems valid to me. Unless you think the sale price data should be time shifted to account for the transaction time?

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There are a lot of reasons why the average price of a house that completes using a Nationwide mortgage as finance is not directly related to the average asking price on Rightmove.

The more expensive a property is, the less likely it is to have been purchased with a mortgage from Nationwide, since a) the ultra high end does not tend to use mortgage financing and B) Nationwide actually has a maximum loan size (although this is not well publicised) so any super high end lending would tend to use a bank with a private banking relationship i.e. Barclays or RBS.

So to say that apples divided by oranges shows the % of asking price actually achieved is not correct, although I do not doubt that looking at the TREND in this data is interesting and does show that "delusion", as you put it, has increased.

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There are a lot of reasons why the average price of a house that completes using a Nationwide mortgage as finance is not directly related to the average asking price on Rightmove.

Hence the normalised version on my graph.

I would imagine that the number of houses above the mortgage limit has relatively little effect on the average - after all you can do a search with no price limit and the first couple of pages might be footballer mcmasions but the next two hundred pages of results are into the realms of reality.

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I don't see that we are doing that here

Hmmm OP is comparing selling/asking

Rightmove is the asking price

Nationwide is the selling price (The nationwide index is the average cost completion value of a house, when someone takes a nationwide mortgage)

Both contain anomalies, but it all averages out...

Edited by moosetea

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Rightmove are asking prices

Nationwide are selling prices (The nationwide index is the average cost completion value of a house, when someone takes a nationwide mortgage)

they are not completions.

likely to be, but not always.

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