Question Over Swine Flu Stats

[bogbrush]

Well a few question actually;

Firstly: Are all the diagnoses based on symptoms or tests? I'd be surprised if so many people have been lab tested. If not, how do we know it's Swine flu? Since you can sign off sick for ages for this, isn't there just a chance that some of this is false?

Anyway, that's only the easy one.

I now hear we can log on, describe symptoms on some form and get Tamiflu in the post, so no need to see a Doctor. Well an awful lot of people will log on and describe SF symptoms to get their Tamiflu good and ready. I may even do it myself, just so it's there if the kids get ill.

Each and every one of those will go down as a case, won't they? They'll have to because since people won't be seeing their doctor at all, there'll be no cases otherwise.

And since people will do this to pre-emptively get their Tamiflu, isn't it clear that the number of cases is going to be vastly overestimated, if it hasn't been so already?

I've been wondering why Britain has more cases than anywhere except the US or Mexico. Maybe we have a systemic bias to recording, allied to a populace who has become very good at claiming to be sick.

And isn't this just handy, what with eminent economists (an oxymoron I know, but bear with me) saying this'll knock 3% off GDP? Gordon had it fixed all along, and then it started in the Americas........

[Injin]

Well a few question actually;

Firstly: Are all the diagnoses based on symptoms or tests? I'd be surprised if so many people have been lab tested. If not, how do we know it's Swine flu? Since you can sign off sick for ages for this, isn't there just a chance that some of this is false?

Anyway, that's only the easy one.

I now hear we can log on, describe symptoms on some form and get Tamiflu in the post, so no need to see a Doctor. Well an awful lot of people will log on and describe SF symptoms to get their Tamiflu good and ready. I may even do it myself, just so it's there if the kids get ill.

Each and every one of those will go down as a case, won't they? They'll have to because since people won't be seeing their doctor at all, there'll be no cases otherwise.

And since people will do this to pre-emptively get their Tamiflu, isn't it clear that the number of cases is going to be vastly overestimated, if it hasn't been so already?

I've been wondering why Britain has more cases than anywhere except the US or Mexico. Maybe we have a systemic bias to recording, allied to a populace who has become very good at claiming to be sick.

And isn't this just handy, what with eminent economists (an oxymoron I know, but bear with me) saying this'll knock 3% off GDP? Gordon had it fixed all along, and then it started in the Americas........

Then you've got all the normal flu that will be mistaken for it etc as well.

Oh and the easily hypnotisable - some people will convince themselves they are ill due to hysteria - the "man from the ministry" is incredibly powerful for some folks. Some of those will develop symptoms just by the power of suggestion alone.

[crashmonitor]

I'd go the other way and say the swineflu numbers are under-estimated. The good news is if the 59,000 cases last week was the tip of an iceberg then it isn't that deadly.

I went down with swine flu on Tuesday. A headache that didn't respond to paracetamol, followed by fever and chest infection, which I still have.

Pretty set in where I live. The village school is closed, neighbours have had it. My partner has had it, as have her colleagues at Nottingham Uni.

However, all the cases I know of have self-managed, not reported and not gone for Tamiflu. The symptoms are so mild many will not even know they have it. Rather shoots your theories down.

[bogbrush]

I'd go the other way and say the swineflu numbers are under-estimated. The good news is if the 59,000 cases last week was the tip of an iceberg then it isn't that deadly.

I went down with swine flu on Tuesday. A headache that didn't respond to paracetamol, followed by fever and chest infection, which I still have.

Pretty set in where I live. The village school is closed, neighbours have had it. My partner has had it, as have her colleagues at Nottingham Uni.

However, all the cases I know of have self-managed, not reported and not gone for Tamiflu. The symptoms are so mild many will not even know they have it. Rather shoots your theories down.

Since my theory is that diagnoses of Swine flu are in fact simply self-reporting, no that doesn't affect my theory.

How did you know it was Swine flu yourself? How did you know your partner had it? And as for closing the school......... please...........

[crashmonitor]

Since my theory is that diagnoses of Swine flu are in fact simply self-reporting, no that doesn't affect my theory.

How did you know it was Swine flu yourself? How did you know your partner had it? And as for closing the school......... please...........

The village I live in has diagnosed cases and was the reason the school was closed, the Nottingham Uni (where my partner works)had one of the first major outbreaks again confirmed and televised.

When you go down with migraine that doesn't respond to paracetamol, followed by a drenching sweat the following night and then the infection goes to your chest, you put two and two together.

Yep there could be a mocker going around in the same area, but I doubt it. But your instinct when you have got it is to keep shtum ,you don't want the red cross on your door treatment.

Concerned parents will go to their GPs and rightly, but the majority of cases will go unreported.

[Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable]

Since my theory is that diagnoses of Swine flu are in fact simply self-reporting, no that doesn't affect my theory.

How did you know it was Swine flu yourself? How did you know your partner had it? And as for closing the school......... please...........

If you're wondering about mortality risk, I'd go with the numbers based on positively tested individuals and reported deaths in positively tested individuals.

Have a lot of people probably picked up other viruses that they think might be swine flu? Yes

Have a lot of people got mild cases of actual swine flu which have not been confirmed? Probably, yes

Have some people been given Tamiflu based on symptom sets which might or might not be flu? Yes

Does Tamiflu make a difference to outcome if you give it in the first 48 hrs? Probably.

[bogbrush]

If you're wondering about mortality risk, I'd go with the numbers based on positively tested individuals and reported deaths in positively tested individuals.

Have a lot of people probably picked up other viruses that they think might be swine flu? Yes

Have a lot of people got mild cases of actual swine flu which have not been confirmed? Probably, yes

Have some people been given Tamiflu based on symptom sets which might or might not be flu? Yes

Does Tamiflu make a difference to outcome if you give it in the first 48 hrs? Probably.

You forgot "Does your GDP reduce markedly despite fiscal stimulus?"

EDIT: I'm not bothered about mortality risk; almost everyone who's died has had some serious underlying problem and anyway if I worried about dying every day I'd never go out.

[crashmonitor]

You forgot "Does your GDP reduce markedly despite fiscal stimulus?"

I know you doubt I even had it. But I didn't stop work and neither did my partner. This is so mild most adults will carry on regardless and many will not even realise they have it.See little effect on GDP.

[AskFrank]

The village I live in has diagnosed cases and was the reason the school was closed, the Nottingham Uni (where my partner works)had one of the first major outbreaks again confirmed and televised.

When you go down with migraine that doesn't respond to paracetamol, followed by a drenching sweat the following night and then the infection goes to your chest, you put two and two together.

Yep there could be a mocker going around in the same area, but I doubt it. But your instinct when you have got it is to keep shtum ,you don't want the red cross on your door treatment.

Concerned parents will go to their GPs and rightly, but the majority of cases will go unreported.

So true. My husband was very ill last week. The nurse at NHS direct told him, that he may or may not have it, but because he didn't have one of the extreme symptoms (like putting his head to his chest, rash etc), that he should just treat it like normal flu unless symptoms got worse.

Anyway, I'm ill now and have been confirmed with Swine Flu. This is all so new, even the medical professionals are learning as they go along.

The number of confirmed cases in the past week is a good indication of how quickly it is progressing.

[King Stromba]

I would be interested to see if there is a statistical correlation between all the suckers that fell for the global warming ******** and the suckers that are lining up like zombies for flu shots now.

My guess is that the same people always get screwed over because they let others do their thinking for them.

[bogbrush]

I know you doubt I even had it. But I didn't stop work and neither did my partner. This is so mild most adults will carry on regardless and many will not even realise they have it.See little effect on GDP.

No, I didn't mean to imply that. If you say you had it then fair enough.

[meedge]

I've been wondering why Britain has more cases than anywhere except the US or Mexico. Maybe we have a systemic bias to recording, allied to a populace who has become very good at claiming to be sick.

It would be interesting to know what proportion of tourist numbers UK visitors make to Mexico (probably quite a lot) and how many flights to Mexico are routed through Heathrow...

[MRMX9]

There was Swine flu cases stats in the Standard yesterday for every London borough.

Tower Hamlets had had 1,400 cases in the last week but there were only 5 reported in Havering (Romford) and Richmond. These latter two boroughs are amongst London's richest - low unemployment few benefit claimants and people mostly living in houses.

In Tower Hamlets most people live in tower blocks and are either rich bankers (in Canary Wharf) or poor/on benefits/in social housing.

Not suprising perhaps - maybe greedy bankers are particulary prone to swine flu along with other freeloaders like Cherie Blair.

[Guest happy?]

Well a few question actually;

Firstly: Are all the diagnoses based on symptoms or tests? I'd be surprised if so many people have been lab tested. If not, how do we know it's Swine flu? Since you can sign off sick for ages for this, isn't there just a chance that some of this is false?

The figures published worked on several different scenarios of varying spread - which seems like a reasonable assumption to me. In the worst-case scenario the deaths were calculated at 65000 (winter flu in 2000-2001 killed approx 25000).

The tabloid press reported this as 65000 deaths and then proceeded to sex it up even more.

Any major infection will have an effect on the economy. The black death is widely attributed to be the midwife of modern capitalism - feudalism was unsustainable when yer average serf could pick and choose whose land they worked.

[mikthe20]

There was Swine flu cases stats in the Standard yesterday for every London borough.

Tower Hamlets had had 1,400 cases in the last week but there were only 5 reported in Havering (Romford) and Richmond. These latter two boroughs are amongst London's richest - low unemployment few benefit claimants and people mostly living in houses.

I know of a school in Richmond which had 10 pupils from one class off ill last week with flu. That's one class in one school (friend of mine's daughter's class). Since the symptoms last only last week one week one can assume that those cases should have been reported either last week or the week before.

[MOP]

Coffins.

The most reliable indicator of all.

Seriously, the only way to know the severity of this is to count the swine flu deaths over a one or two year period. You can make comparisons with whatever else you like then.

[US Citizen]

I've been wondering why Britain has more cases than anywhere except the US or Mexico.

Austailia & Canada arnt that much behind us. It all comes down to a single factor. POPULATION DENSITY.

For instance Tokyo, Cairo & Mumbai would see cases increase faster and more aggressive as ours.

Our own cases happen to be concentrated around the two largest cities last week. As nothing was done it has spread the the rest of the country, except parts of Yorkshire. (Low population density).

[Blue Warwick]

Austailia & Canada arnt that much behind us. It all comes down to a single factor. POPULATION DENSITY.

For instance Tokyo, Cairo & Mumbai would see cases increase faster and more aggressive as ours.

Our own cases happen to be concentrated around the two largest cities last week. As nothing was done it has spread the the rest of the country, except parts of Yorkshire. (Low population density).

So even swine flu does not want to go to Yorkshire?