Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Confounded

Professional Bears

Recommended Posts

With a flurry of professional bears turning bull will there be any professional bears left or is it down to the amateur bear to hold fort?

Nouriel Roubini, Meridith Whitney and Mark Mobius all going in the last few week, is there any professional bears left.

I am a bear, nudging the uber side of things because the rate of decline has actually been worse than the 1930's and I was only realy predicting a normal depression. The economy has been deteriorating every week they have pumped the markets up to paint a picture of a V shape recovery, it is becoming pretty disconcerting that the people who gave a bit of clarity to MSM are turning for the greater good.

The only two that I follow that are still going strong are Peter Schiff and Bill Bonner (not realy MSM) from the back page of Money week. Are there any others that are given main stream media air time and are still being objective about the current situation?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
With a flurry of professional bears turning bull will there be any professional bears left or is it down to the amateur bear to hold fort?

Nouriel Roubini, Meridith Whitney and Mark Mobius all going in the last few week, is there any professional bears left.

I am a bear, nudging the uber side of things because the rate of decline has actually been worse than the 1930's and I was only realy predicting a normal depression. The economy has been deteriorating every week they have pumped the markets up to paint a picture of a V shape recovery, it is becoming pretty disconcerting that the people who gave a bit of clarity to MSM are turning for the greater good.

The only two that I follow that are still going strong are Peter Schiff and Bill Bonner (not realy MSM) from the back page of Money week. Are there any others that are given main stream media air time and are still being objective about the current situation?

Confounded, I really enjoy much of what you have to say.

I think that you need to think very clearly about what you are asking here though.

People like Roubini and Whitney are professional commentators rather than professional investors. I don't think that they have a lot of "skin in the game". There are probably many more "professionals" who have a longer time horizons than commentators who are going to wait much longer to change their tune than people like Whitney and Roubini. They also avoid the spotlight.

Mobius is a more challenging character. I am not sure how large his fund is. I am always suspicious about managers who spend more time trying to dominate the airwaves than they spend on making their investors serious money.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not really what you were asking about, but your question did remind me of this twit in the Torygraph today. He thinks that he is a professional bear although it sounds like he is heavily in the red. This was the part that really cracked me up, talk about timing :

"I've always been a bear market trader. I only sell the FTSE," he said. It meant he made almost straight losses for the first three years in the early Noughties as the FTSE 100 index soared. He was still shorting the FTSE in 2007 when it neared 7,000 points. But then came the crashes of 2008.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Eh? :blink:

Roubini has retracted the bullsh*t story from yesterday.

“It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over “this year†and that I have “improved†my economic outlook. Despite those reports - however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context."

Did you actually read what Meridith Whitney said the other day?

Unemployment is likely to rise to 13 percent or higher and will weigh on the economy for several years, countering government efforts to stabilize the banking industry, analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC.

While Whitney raised her short-term outlook for banks, causing stocks to open in positive territory after pointing lower earlier, she said the long-term outlook for the economy remains murky.

Consumers will not be able to spend as they continue to lose jobs and credit conditions stay tight, she said in a live interview. The result will provide a vivid display of how critical housing and lending are to economic growth. Unemployment is currently at 9.5 percent but is expected to keep rising.

"We underestimate how much the whole economy is dependent on the mortgage industry, and that has to change," Whitney said. "This is what happens when you delay the inevitable. We're buying time here, but we're not restructuring the economy."

Banks as a whole could see a 15 percent gain in the short term, "then you flatline, then I think you have another leg down."

"Unemployment continues to drive higher and the banks are not prepared for double-digit unemployment," she said. "That's going to be an issue for them that doesn't go away for the next year and a half."

Edited by MOP

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Who have called it 100% correctly so far, the professionals on TV or the amateurs on HPC?

The trick to doing really well in markets is to be able to accept that momentum overwhelms logic a lot of the time but that logic wins out at the end.

Timing is everything.

I am not yet convinced that many people on this site (cue vitriol, hatred, anger etc) or the media (cue sage nods etc) have demonstrated consistent timing of turns in markets yet, especially at times when momentum outweighs logic.

PS ..... I am nowhere good enough to catch tops and bottoms and don't claim to be omniscient .... To the contrary, I am always too early to call boths tops and bottoms in the market .......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I normally can see the turn coming, there are clear signs about six months before it happens. Alarm bells were ringing left, right and centre in 2007.

There is no indication whatsoever at the moment that the economy will start to recover in six months time.

I reckon this year and all of next year will be bad- we will have the magical three million unemployed that we remember from the Thatcher era- but that the economy will recover strongly in 2011.

January or February of that year is the time to go house-hunting if you want a home that will also be a financially sound investment.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

AFAIK the Bear list hasn't changed much.

Roubini, Whitney, Faber, Schiff, Taleb, Rosenberg, Rogers, Shedlock, Denninger, Bonner, Celente, Keiser etc are all still Bears.

Not much has changed in the Bear camp from what I can see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Eh? :blink:

Roubini has retracted the bullsh*t story from yesterday.

Did you actually read what Meridith Whitney said the other day?

I know, followed both their comments in detail, and may have been a bit naughty classing them as turncoats. I have been calling the media led recovery since the G20 where across the World the media has done their bit to spread greens shoots in conjunction with the markets being pimped, Just thought it would be an interesting thread. :rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Banks as a whole could see a 15 percent gain in the short term, "then you flatline, then I think you have another leg down."

I don't know what she means by short term - possibly this quarter?

In any event, if we take the US BKX - Bank index, then a 15% gain even from tonight's close (and it's risen 10% this week since she spoke) would still be lower that this year's high at the end of April. So I think she's suggesting we've seen the year highs for the banksters overall.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BKX...id=p03204685627

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The trick to doing really well in markets is to be able to accept that momentum overwhelms logic a lot of the time but that logic wins out at the end.

Timing is everything.

I am not yet convinced that many people on this site (cue vitriol, hatred, anger etc) or the media (cue sage nods etc) have demonstrated consistent timing of turns in markets yet, especially at times when momentum outweighs logic.

PS ..... I am nowhere good enough to catch tops and bottoms and don't claim to be omniscient .... To the contrary, I am always too early to call boths tops and bottoms in the market .......

I did this in the housing market by buying in when it was heading into bubble territory. I read articles around that time (2002) saying we were breaching the long term historical trend and also of people STRing in London because of the huge gains they had already had but I went with the heard.

The stock market is a far more complicated beast because of the manipulation. I sold all my shares in Feb 07 when the rumbles of the credit markets become too audible, they managed to pump the DOW up 2000 points over the next 7 months on nothing but hot air. I hold my hands up that I am not able to work out the double bluffs to consistently make money in these markets. I struggle to invest consistently against logic and strong gut feelings. I think the markets are in a very dangerous phase and I am happy to sit on the sidelines and watch.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Threads like this one disgust me. The whole purpose, I have long assumed, of HPC.co.uk is to alert people to the unsustainability and social misuse of treating HOMES as a speculative market.

The concept of a "professional bear" is as sick-making as a "professional bull" as far as property is concerned. The bear's primary function is no different from that of a bull. Both are waiting for an opportunity to make cash out of a market that is too important and vital to quality of life as a PLACE TO LIVE to regard as a speculative opportunity.

Go and do something USEFUL for a living. Like making things that people need, or offering a service people want. The delusion that you are in any way useful to anyone but yourselves is something that really needs to be obliterated in this nation of operators and spivs.

Edited by VacantPossession

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The trick to doing really well in markets is to be able to accept that momentum overwhelms logic a lot of the time but that logic wins out at the end.

Timing is everything.

I am not yet convinced that many people on this site (cue vitriol, hatred, anger etc) or the media (cue sage nods etc) have demonstrated consistent timing of turns in markets yet, especially at times when momentum outweighs logic.

PS ..... I am nowhere good enough to catch tops and bottoms and don't claim to be omniscient .... To the contrary, I am always too early to call boths tops and bottoms in the market .......

It's all down to guessing and there are too many interacting variables, and if you do get the timing right it's more to do with luck than judgement.

I would agree that the notion of professional bears is just as bad as professional bulls.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Threads like this one disgust me. The whole purpose, I have long assumed, of HPC.co.uk is to alert people to the unsustainability and social misuse of treating HOMES as a speculative market.

The concept of a "professional bear" is as sick-making as a "professional bull" as far as property is concerned. The bear's primary function is no different from that of a bull. Both are waiting for an opportunity to make cash out of a market that is too important and vital to quality of life as a PLACE TO LIVE to regard as a speculative opportunity.

Go and do something USEFUL for a living. Like making things that people need, or offering a service people want. The delusion that you are in any way useful to anyone but yourselves is something that really needs to be obliterated in this nation of operators and spivs.

what is the banks position on the property market?

lets see, LTVs of 75% for decent rates. better at 65%.

And what their position on the general populace:

1/3 of loans that there were...many many people rejected as a poor risk. 90% of "products" (spits) removed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I normally can see the turn coming, there are clear signs about six months before it happens. Alarm bells were ringing left, right and centre in 2007.

There is no indication whatsoever at the moment that the economy will start to recover in six months time.

I reckon this year and all of next year will be bad- we will have the magical three million unemployed that we remember from the Thatcher era- but that the economy will recover strongly in 2011.

January or February of that year is the time to go house-hunting if you want a home that will also be a financially sound investment.

Absolutey -wavering bears need to make their mind up whether they trust their senses or have been taken in by some not very good propaganda in the past three months. The fundamentals are thus:

Unemployment is going through the roof.

Printing obsence amounts of money has not fixed anything

Most of us who own or work in B2B businesses have first hand experience of lay offs and pay cuts across many clients across a range of sectors

Many fixed rate/tracker deals set before the crash will come to an end soon.

Finally two pieces of anecdotal observations:

1. Our bank manager saw us on Thursday at our behest we are ticking along revenue down profit holding up. Young chap bit of a rebel not corporate at all said don't worry about this year its next year you need to worry about

2. I was behind a middle aged guy like me at the till in budgens buying a pork and pickle snack pie and a torygraph. (just detail I know) He was with his two sons in smart school uniform they bought normal stuff chewing gum bottle of coke etc, total about 4.50. He paid with a credit card and it wasn't a debit as well it was a pure credit card.

He was in a suit looked like a professional man. If you pay by credit card for lifes sundries you are hanging on by your finger nails - I reckon there are millions of professional couples/people like him. Personally I found it quite sad. Looked like a normal Dad and obviously couldn't pay for some sundries for his boys cash.

So to all you wavering bears - keep your ears and eyes open in the woods then make your mind up

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Threads like this one disgust me. The whole purpose, I have long assumed, of HPC.co.uk is to alert people to the unsustainability and social misuse of treating HOMES as a speculative market.

The concept of a "professional bear" is as sick-making as a "professional bull" as far as property is concerned. The bear's primary function is no different from that of a bull. Both are waiting for an opportunity to make cash out of a market that is too important and vital to quality of life as a PLACE TO LIVE to regard as a speculative opportunity.

Go and do something USEFUL for a living. Like making things that people need, or offering a service people want. The delusion that you are in any way useful to anyone but yourselves is something that really needs to be obliterated in this nation of operators and spivs.

Actually agree with all this especially the useful product or service comment but I think we need professional bears to help drive the market down against the tide of VI hogwash.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
sip

He was in a suit looked like a professional man. If you pay by credit card for lifes sundries you are hanging on by your finger nails - I reckon there are millions of professional couples/people like him. Personally I found it quite sad. Looked like a normal Dad and obviously couldn't pay for some sundries for his boys cash.

So to all you wavering bears - keep your ears and eyes open in the woods then make your mind up

you are not reading your MSE are you.

paying by credit card with a cashback and paying in full can earn you hundreds a year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
you are not reading your MSE are you.

paying by credit card with a cashback and paying in full can earn you hundreds a year.

I was going to put that caveat in. Just didn't look like it, I am a nosy bugger work in IT services, literally have had millions of people interactions (sales,ops, networking etc ) and it looked like desperation not planning my evidence was:

1. Wallet stuffed full of paper

2. He had to hunt for the card and it was the only one and it was buried in his wallet

My experience is that people who do that stuff are pretty organised and secondly less people do it than you would expect. I use BP and Sainsburys for the Nectar points and normally your card is easily accessible.

But of course you could be right.

Edited by Greg Bowman

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I normally can see the turn coming, there are clear signs about six months before it happens. Alarm bells were ringing left, right and centre in 2007.

There is no indication whatsoever at the moment that the economy will start to recover in six months time.

I reckon this year and all of next year will be bad- we will have the magical three million unemployed that we remember from the Thatcher era- but that the economy will recover strongly in 2011.

January or February of that year is the time to go house-hunting if you want a home that will also be a financially sound investment.

Karl Denninger follows high frequency data such as haulage data for signs of a turn, so let us know Harry!

Then we can "fill our boots"!

Nick

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Threads like this one disgust me. The whole purpose, I have long assumed, of HPC.co.uk is to alert people to the unsustainability and social misuse of treating HOMES as a speculative market.

The concept of a "professional bear" is as sick-making as a "professional bull" as far as property is concerned. The bear's primary function is no different from that of a bull. Both are waiting for an opportunity to make cash out of a market that is too important and vital to quality of life as a PLACE TO LIVE to regard as a speculative opportunity.

Go and do something USEFUL for a living. Like making things that people need, or offering a service people want. The delusion that you are in any way useful to anyone but yourselves is something that really needs to be obliterated in this nation of operators and spivs.

Jeeeeeeeeesh...........

Got a bit of a hangover?

Nick

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I was going to put that caveat in. Just didn't look like it, I am a nosy bugger work in IT services, literally have had millions of people interactions (sales,ops, networking etc ) and it looked like desperation not planning my evidence was:

1. Wallet stuffed full of paper

2. He had to hunt for the card and it was the only one and it was buried in his wallet

My experience is that people who do that stuff are pretty organised and secondly less people do it than you would expect. I use BP and Sainsburys for the Nectar points and normally your card is easily accessible.

But of course you could be right.

ah, you see, your point 1 sort of confirms the possibility....he pays for many things on the card and keeps the receipts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   288 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.