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Confounded

Roubini Predicts Recession To End This Year

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:lol::lol::lol:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=az9k8d_f_xn8

U.S. Stocks Rise as Roubini Predicts Recession to End This Year

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose for a fourth day as economist Nouriel Roubini said the worst of the financial crisis is over and the recession will end this year, while takeover speculation lifted commodity shares.

Mosaic Co. rallied the most since December on a report Vale SA may bid $25 billion for the fertilizer producer. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index reversed an earlier slide after Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the financial crisis, said a second economic stimulus plan may be needed to guarantee a recovery. CIT Group Inc., the commercial lender running low on cash, plunged 73 percent after saying it probably won’t receive a federal bailout.

The S&P 500 increased 0.7 percent to 939.49 at 2:51 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 70.14 points, or 0.8 percent, to 8,686.35. European and Asian shares advanced.

“The optimism that people are starting to embrace is that the recession may be months away from ending,†said David Goerz, who oversees $17 billion as chief investment officer at Highmark Capital Management in San Francisco. “Even the most bearish forecasters starting to capitulate.â€

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Poverty kills.
Is this Roubini in happy clappy mode?

Next week he'll say something to contradict this.

Maybe they should call him Rubberini :rolleyes:

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He also said we need a second stimulus package ???? :blink:

The stimulus "can not bee too small, but it can not be too large," Roubini said, or financial markets will become too worried about the sustainability of the U.S. debt.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/31947275

WTF is he on about?

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I don't really follow the hahahahahah bit. Sorry if I'm being thick - do you mean the story is fake? I thought Nouriel Roubini was Mr Double Dip?

Sorry, if you have followed Roubini in the build up to the crisis and understood what he was saying last year you would realise we are so far from ending this recession it is laughable. Roubini the guy who with reasonable clarity predicted the severity of this ongoing financial crisis has turned on a sixpence in less than a year it is enough to make me chuckle to myself. They have not fixed any of the problems but have just decided post G20 propaganda would be their final weapon.

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The stimulus "can not bee too small, but it can not be too large," Roubini said, or financial markets will become too worried about the sustainability of the U.S. debt.

Does he think US debt is currently sustainable??? :blink:

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I'm new to most of this stuff and I like(d) Roubini's analytical style. Do you know if he has form on this sort thing? Wasn't he called Dr. Doom for years before the crash so maybe he'll be Dr. Recovery for a few years before the actual "recovereh". Bit of a win win scenario for him. He called the crash early from my understanding. Now he's doing the same with the "recovereh"

The problem is debt, has the debt mountain magically disappeared?

If you read his earlier stuff what he's saying now doesn't make sense.

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He's certainly testing his hard-won credibility.

He lost his credibility when he turned with the main stream medias push post G20 to paint a picture of recovery.

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Given his past pronouncements, it does make you wonder whether he has been got at.

The debt problem is still there, and as far as I can see it's gotten worse.

Yeah, it'll all be over soon. Recovery on the way. We can all go back to the shops and pile into the estate agents on Sunday. ;)

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Given his past pronouncements, it does make you wonder whether he has been got at.

The debt problem is still there, and as far as I can see it's gotten worse.

Yeah, it'll all be over soon. Recovery on the way. We can all go back to the shops and pile into the estate agents on Sunday. ;)

Things are getting worse by the day, I suspect the deterioration to this point has even spooked Roubini, either to turn Patriotic to help with this financial war or he has been invited for a coffee and chat with the president. Either way there is as much chance of Roubini believing what he has recently been saying as Gordon Brown being seen by history as the Iron Chancellor the greatest UK chancellor in history

Edited by Confounded

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Someone's got to him. I've followed his stuff since last year and his u-turn is pretty laughable. Ask yourself, what has changed? Has anything that caused this really gone away?

Edited by self

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http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/257...conomic_outlook

“It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over “this year” and that I have “improved” my economic outlook. Despite those reports - however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.

“I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19months into that recession. If, as I predicted, the recession is over by year end, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010. Simply put I am not forecasting economic growth before year’s end.

“Indeed, last year I argued that this will be a long and deep and protracted U-shaped recession that would last 24 months. Meanwhile, the consensus argued that this would be a short and shallow V-shaped 8 months long recession (like those in 1990-91 and 2001). That debate is over today as we are in the 19th month of a severe recession; so the V is out the window and we are in a deep U-shaped recession. If that recession were to be over by year end – as I have consistently predicted – it would have lasted 24 months and thus been three times longer than the previous two and five times deeper – in terms of cumulative GDP contraction – than the previous two. So, there is nothing new in my remarks today about the recession being over at the end of this year....continues

Oops.

I hope the markets weren't trading up on his mis-quoted/interpreted comments this afternoon.

:ph34r:

Edited by Red Kharma

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They just made his quote up then???

I'm really getting sick of the ramping ******** now.

Look like they just make up whatever they feel like. Someone smart could make a packet trading the news just before they put it up on their screen. I don't know how they get away with this stuff on media tickers.

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Is he going to do an Alaistair Campbell and storm into CNBC HQ and demand a retraction on air that he was "misquoted."

He has gone from economic sage to waverer to embaressment in 6 months.

Very sad really and his downfall started when he started to predict the stockmarket levels with absolute certainty over the last 6 months.

If he stuck to economics he may have kept his reputation but he knows that the big money in America is made by being right with stock market predictions so his personal greed has brought him down.

Quite sad really for a so called academic.

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To be fair to Roubini it does seem he has been done over by CNBC on this one, they are desperate to get the sideline money (real money) to support this current artificial level within the market. Yesterdays pump showed how few people were shorting yesterday because they did not get their normal sized bounce which accompanies one of these engineered "news" event pumps, I feel we are nearing the end of this period of relative calm.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/roubini-m...ken-out-context

Does CNBC now have to pay back all those who bought stock after being pounded by this misquote over and over as an epilepsy inducing Breaking News box? That, of course, assumes the powers that be will allow the market to move down even 1 point from the most recent artificially high level.

From RGE Montior:

“It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over “this year†and that I have “improved†my economic outlook. Despite those reports - however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.

“I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19months into that recession. If, as I predicted, the recession is over by year end, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010. Simply put I am not forecasting economic growth before year’s end.

“Indeed, last year I argued that this will be a long and deep and protracted U-shaped recession that would last 24 months. Meanwhile, the consensus argued that this would be a short and shallow V-shaped 8 months long recession (like those in 1990-91 and 2001). That debate is over today as we are in the 19th month of a severe recession; so the V is out the window and we are in a deep U-shaped recession. If that recession were to be over by year end – as I have consistently predicted – it would have lasted 24 months and thus been three times longer than the previous two and five times deeper – in terms of cumulative GDP contraction – than the previous two. So, there is nothing new in my remarks today about the recession being over at the end of this year.

“I have also consistently argued – including in my remarks today - that while the consensus predicts that the US economy will go back close to potential growth by next year, I see instead a shallow, below-par and below-trend recovery where growth will average about 1% in the next couple of years when potential is probably closer to 2.75%.

“I have also consistently argued that there is a risk of a double-dip W-shaped recession toward the end of 2010, as a tough policy dilemma will emerge next year: on one side, early exit from monetary and fiscal easing would tip the economy into a new recession as the recovery is anemic and deflationary pressures are dominant. On the other side, maintaining large budget deficits and continued monetization of such deficits would eventually increase long term interest rates (because of concerns about medium term fiscal sustainability and because of an increase in expected inflation) and thus would lead to a crowding out of private demand.

“While the recession will be over by the end of the year the recovery will be weak given the debt overhang in the household sector, the financial system and the corporate sector; and now there is also a massive re-leveraging of the public sector with unsustainable fiscal deficits and public debt accumulation.

“Also, as I fleshed out in detail in recent remarks the labor market is still very weak: I predict a peak unemployment rate of close to 11% in 2010. Such large unemployment will have negative effects on labor income and consumption growth; will postpone the bottoming out of the housing sector; will lead to larger defaults and losses on bank loans (residential and commercial mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, leveraged loans); will increase the size of the budget deficit (even before any additional stimulus is implemented); and will increase protectionist pressures.

“So, yes there is light at the end of the tunnel for the US and the global economy; but as I have consistently argued the recession will continue through the end of the year, and the recovery will be weak and at risk of a double dip, as the challenge of getting right the timing and size of the exit strategy for monetary and fiscal policy easing will be daunting.

“RGE Monitor will soon release our updated U.S. and Global Economic Outlook. A preview of the U.S. Outlook

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He's in Chile.

I heard that as soon as he unloads his Aberdeen properties he will revert to his doom-laden default mode.

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