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Recovery Or Lies

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I would welcome opinions - Are we seeing green shoots? Has it all bottomed out? Are we continuing to slide?

My view is that the government and the banks remain in denial of the dreadful situation affecting the economy and want to recruit the general public to share these opinions. In the case of the government - they cannot afford to admit the mess we are in until after the next general election. In the case of the banks, they simply cannot afford to admit the mess full stop.

When the truth is eventually accepted and acknowledged and the market is forced to return to the real world, i.e. interest rates are raised ("you can't buck the market") I suspect we will see a plunge in house prices which has not been prevented, but merely postponed. I believe house prices are still 30 - 40% overpriced and that this adjustment has yet to be experienced.

I run my own business - we are actually doing quite well - but I come into contact with others on a daily basis who are in a dreadful mess.

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I think the banks know how the bad the situation is which is why they are currently fleecing the taxpayer.

The knows how bad it is but can't admit the truth because the voters will lay the blame entirely on them and all the growth Labour has gone on about will be revealed to be a debt illusion.

How far will house prices fall is anyones guess, going to back to 2000 prices could be a best case scenario. We are still in the eye of the storm we can't stay here forever at some point the truth will be revealed.

Ludwig von Mises describes the endgame brought on by reckless expansion of credit: "There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit (debt) expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit (debt) expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

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I would welcome opinions - Are we seeing green shoots? Has it all bottomed out? Are we continuing to slide?

Alt A/Arm Resets

CMBSs

Unemployment

Credit Card Defaults

Pensions Shortfall

You decide.

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I am an accountant and I can not for the first time in my life, find a job for love nor money. We are in a temporary calm before the massive fall. Labour have managed to convince a lot of people that things have bottomed out, but all they have done by lowering interest rates to a 300 years record, pumping QE and buying banks, is delay the crash by a few months.

There are a lot of people who are going to be in real trouble shortly and that's when the recession starts properly.

Nobody has fixed the core problem, i.e. the UK doesn't make enough to pay for our way in the world. Until we do, the UK is not going to be a nice place to be. If I could, I would leave the UK now.

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This is Gordon Browns idea of "Green Shoots".

We are not in a recession anymore :rolleyes: . We are entering a full blown depression and if we can keep our friends in the media sweet until the next election which we will surely lose. Then it will be David Cameron cleaning up the mess. While Tony Blair becomes President of the EU and Gordon Brown becomes his Cheif Economic Advisor.

You see, green shoot everywhere we look. NOT!

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If you want to see where we're going, you have to look at what's happening in the US economy, and that's both ahead of us in the timeline and also still continuing to slide.

The world we've known is coming to an end, and the Government and financiers can't bring themselves to face the new one.

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I am an accountant and I can not for the first time in my life, find a job for love nor money. We are in a temporary calm before the massive fall. Labour have managed to convince a lot of people that things have bottomed out, but all they have done by lowering interest rates to a 300 years record, pumping QE and buying banks, is delay the crash by a few months.

Exactly. Just as with "energy", you cannot magic up "wealth" from nowhere.

We've had the biggest boom ever, now we have to have the biggest bust ever.

Simple as.

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I am an accountant and I can not for the first time in my life, find a job for love nor money. We are in a temporary calm before the massive fall. Labour have managed to convince a lot of people that things have bottomed out, but all they have done by lowering interest rates to a 300 years record, pumping QE and buying banks, is delay the crash by a few months.

There are a lot of people who are going to be in real trouble shortly and that's when the recession starts properly.

Nobody has fixed the core problem, i.e. the UK doesn't make enough to pay for our way in the world. Until we do, the UK is not going to be a nice place to be. If I could, I would leave the UK now.

Spot on.

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I am an accountant and I can not for the first time in my life, find a job for love nor money. We are in a temporary calm before the massive fall. Labour have managed to convince a lot of people that things have bottomed out, but all they have done by lowering interest rates to a 300 years record, pumping QE and buying banks, is delay the crash by a few months.

There are a lot of people who are going to be in real trouble shortly and that's when the recession starts properly.

Nobody has fixed the core problem, i.e. the UK doesn't make enough to pay for our way in the world. Until we do, the UK is not going to be a nice place to be. If I could, I would leave the UK now.

Good Post.

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I understand the OP's question, but really, asking it just demonstrates how you can doubt yourself if the press, TV and government bombards you enough, let alone the muppets around you, with utter cobblers about green shoots. As with everything, and forgive me for reminding us all yet again, in times like this one must hold on firmly to one's CRITICAL FACULTIES, and not be swayed by almost religious fanaticism from what are, tediously as usual, a grand calvacade of vested interests, all desperate that the truth about debt, bank implosions and HPC is somehow going to end if only we can keep deluding ourselves.

Edited by VacantPossession

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It'd be fantastic if we could have had a ten year binge on spending, house prices out of control and after a brief bit of recession, be cured.

but the debt still stinks, the house prices are still too high. The uk is unsustainable.

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Nobody has fixed the core problem, i.e. the UK doesn't make enough to pay for our way in the world. Until we do, the UK is not going to be a nice place to be. If I could, I would leave the UK now.

I would disagree the core problem is debt, this is the issue that has not been fixed.

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