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shedfish

One In Eight Americans Now Behind Or In Foreclosure

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One in eight Americans is now late on a payment or already in foreclosure, according to Mish

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...-record-15.html

i don't know what default rate was factored in when these mortgages and MBS were issued, but i bet it was less than that

It is shocking just how bad things are in the States.

Our situation is just as bad but people here still believe in houses as an asset rather than just being somewhere to live which results in a lot of stickiness in the downward moves in prices. here

The end results will be similar (-40% to -50% from peak) but the path will be different.

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One in eight Americans is now late on a payment or already in foreclosure, according to Mish

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...-record-15.html

i don't know what default rate was factored in when these mortgages and MBS were issued, but i bet it was less than that

PS. I think that it is close to the time that you change your avatar. You need a more lively and fierce looking bear.

You are right that the bear has been hibernating for the last few months but I suspect that he will wake up and start flashing his claws again soon.

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U.S. mulling mortgage aid for unemployed

Every program so far has failed and so new plans keep rolling out, often creating "perverse incentives that distort the housing market". Please consider U.S. mulling mortgage aid for unemployed

President Barack Obama is mulling new ways to delay foreclosure for jobless homeowners who are unable to keep up with monthly payments, an administration official said on Monday.

But the official said the idea, which is still evolving, was difficult from a policy perspective and carries potential hazards. It could help more people struggling with economic difficulty, but it also could create perverse incentives that distort the housing market, said the official, who did not want to speak on the record about internal administration debates.

"All these numbers keep going up. We are not anywhere near the bottom," said Jay Brinkmann, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The Treasury Department asked the largest 25 mortgage service companies last week to appoint a special liaison officer to work directly with government officials trying to stem defaults.

Voluntary And Involuntary Defaults Rise

Rising home prices are the key to fewer voluntary defaults. Voluntary defaults are characterized by someone able to pay the mortgage but stops because of negative equity or other disincentives.

For involuntary defaults, jobs are the key. Sadly, both keys are nowhere to be found.

The trend in home prices is still down and will likely be down for several more years. Please see Housing Update - How Far To The Bottom? for details.

idiots

The jobs picture is even more bleak as Bernanke Sees Chance of Jobless Recovery.

:lol:

Given that the Fed's first mission is to delay, confuse, hope, and otherwise attempt to buy time while engaging in wishful thinking along the way, that Bernanke is willing to admit this may be a jobless recovery is a sign that things will likely be at least that bad. In other words, prepare for a job loss recovery.

Foreclosure prevention programs are going to continue to fail as long as home prices are sinking and unemployment is rising. Attempts to manipulate the market and/or prevent foreclosures will merely create "perverse incentives that distort the housing market".

The only real solution is time and price. Homes have to fall to the point of affordability and people have to have jobs before any house is affordable. This should be obvious but given the number of failed programs it must not be.

obvious yes

not good for short term votes though

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The only real solution is time and price. Homes have to fall to the point of affordability and people have to have jobs before any house is affordable. This should be obvious but given the number of failed programs it must not be.

Incorrect the only solution is repayment or default.

However to achieve repayment you need to circumvent the banks as they don't want repayment, and neither do they want default.

1 in 8 is massive, how many of these are due to financial distress and how many are down to people deciding it's not worth repaying any more with the plan of just sending the keys back?

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PS. I think that it is close to the time that you change your avatar. You need a more lively and fierce looking bear.

You are right that the bear has been hibernating for the last few months but I suspect that he will wake up and start flashing his claws again soon.

sad to say i was just thinking of photoshopping a Chrysler Building in the vicinity of the poor feller's ass, i don't think the irrational nonsense is done yet... in both directions. look at JPM, down over 2% after that result.. everything is upside down, and the whipsaw gets worse

Incorrect the only solution is repayment or default.

However to achieve repayment you need to circumvent the banks as they don't want repayment, and neither do they want default.

1 in 8 is massive, how many of these are due to financial distress and how many are down to people deciding it's not worth repaying any more with the plan of just sending the keys back?

i think the non-recourse nature of (unmodified) US mortgages exacerbates the situation, compared with the UK

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