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BecksMyCat

How Much Further Have Prices Got To Fall?

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A poll for those bored at work, or recently made redundant.

I opted for 15% further falls but I think it is going to take a couple of years to get there. Too bullish? What do you think?

edit: comments on your vote are welcome

Please note this is for further falls, form where we are today.

Edited by BecksMyCat

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Yeah I went for 15 - 20% that added to the drops already and property should start to look fair value IMO. However if lenders rates start to rise then we will see bigger falls.

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Yeah I went for 15 - 20% that added to the drops already and property should start to look fair value IMO. However if lenders rates start to rise then we will see bigger falls.

Much the same here. I suspect it'll take another couple of years, complete with spring bounces, to get there, although I wouldn't rule out larger falls during the first three years of the next parliament as that'll be when the pain relating to spending cuts and tax rises will be loaded.

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I voted 40% still to go.

We're only about 18 months into a full-blown depression. Ask me the same question again in 18 months time. B)

Unemployment rising. Wages falling. Apart from the cossetted few who may their living standard increase in the next few years, who is going to have the money to buy even at today's prices? And if they do have some money, will banks lend ?

As recent house sales figures show, there are still a number of sheep being sucked into the dwindling housing scam. They will be fleeced as sure as night follows day......... :rolleyes:

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I voted 40% still to go.

We're only about 18 months into a full-blown depression. Ask me the same question again in 18 months time. B)

Unemployment rising. Wages falling. Apart from the cossetted few who may their living standard increase in the next few years, who is going to have the money to buy even at today's prices? And if they do have some money, will banks lend ?

As recent house sales figures show, there are still a number of sheep being sucked into the dwindling housing scam. They will be fleeced as sure as night follows day......... :rolleyes:

In your camp, only the froth has come off so far we are still to have the meat of the crash. :rolleyes:

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How Much Further Have Prices GOT To Fall?

I voted 35-40%. Going on what I think should be the price of an average house for the average family income.

Realistically though, probably another 20%, taking it to an average of about 40% peak-trough.

Which means about a 15-20% peak-trough in the area I'm looking. Booooooo <_<

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I should know better by now than to make predictions but here goes nothing:

From here (approx 20% down in real terms) on the LR index a real fall of 36% - 40% would give us approximately 50% real terms falls peak to trough.

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Basically, house prices double every 14 years.

They don't triple every 8 years as we've been led to believe.

So the lowest crash price will be 2x the lowest previous crash price.

Houses round my way were 50K ish in 96-97. That means they'll be 100K ish by 2011.

Those are nominal price ratios.

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During recessions prices usually fall back to what they (or very close to) before the recession started. There is still a long way for this recession to go despite the government and people trying to hide the effects.

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<br />During recessions prices usually fall back to what they (or very close to) before the recession started. There is still a long way for this recession to go despite the government and people trying to hide the effects.<br />
<br /><br /><br />

So you're saying prices will fall back to summer 2007?

I may have missed something.

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During recessions prices usually fall back to what they (or very close to) before the recession started. There is still a long way for this recession to go despite the government and people trying to hide the effects.

I think you mean bubble, not recession

welcome.

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<br /><br /><br />

So you're saying prices will fall back to summer 2007?

I may have missed something.

I presume he meant to say before the boom started.

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Basically, house prices double every 14 years.

They don't triple every 8 years as we've been led to believe.

So the lowest crash price will be 2x the lowest previous crash price.

Houses round my way were 50K ish in 96-97. That means they'll be 100K ish by 2011.

Those are nominal price ratios.

That arithmatic would put FTB houses in my area down to the £70 to £90 thousand range. Sounds right to me and in line with what I rashly predicted in the pub early last year.

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That arithmatic would put FTB houses in my area down to the £70 to £90 thousand range. Sounds right to me and in line with what I rashly predicted in the pub early last year.

Some people quote an 18 year cycle time for housing.

Basically, if you say a doubling over "n" years, then it's equivalent to a compounding growth rate equal to the nth root of 2.

With a value of 14, you get an answer of 1.0508, i.e. just over 5% YoY.

With a value of 18, that becomes about 4% YoY.

Looking at the value of cash in a taxed savings account, or long-term government bond yields, or long term stock market gains, you can't expect much more.

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Further substantial falls are inevitable (I don't think we are anywhere near bottom yet), but there are so many factors involved it's difficult to say how long it will take. Given the state of the economy, the new lending criteria, rising unemployment, massive public sector cuts to come, in nominal terms then 10% is wildly optimistic, 20% seems about right although 30% is easily possible. A big factor is surely the large numbers of BTL slave boxes that will fall much more, dragging down the overall % with it.

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I still think we'll be a dead ringer (as in the past) for California, albeit in slow motion. Prices there are down 55%, and the general consensus seems to be theyve another 10-15% to go there. Given were down apx 20% we need about another 65% fall from here to catch up. The 'real' trough in todays prices will be about the same as the 1989 peak of £63k, although the nominal bottom will be in the range of £70-80k

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I voted 11 - 15% as i believe our goverments sole aim in any economic decision it makes is to protect house prices.

However, if the following things occur (not unreasonable) then i can see prices dropping another 40 - 50%

1) Cull of public sector (say more than 20%)

2) Interest rates rise above 5%

3) Unemployment tops 3 mil.

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I have aways felt that the true price of a 2 bed house should be 80k, a 3 bed 100k-120k and a 4 bed around 140k based upon average wages. Obviously more in London, less in Scunthorpe but you get the picture. This makes current prices about 40% overvalued. I stick to that and without artificial propping up of the market, this is where prices are heading.

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