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juvenal

What Specific Conditions Will End This Recession?

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I hear the word 'recovery' daily. But I never hear just what exactly will bring it about.

I know a fall in unemployment, rising manufacturing orders etc will help.

But what will actually trigger the above, and sustain this much-talked of 'recovery'?

Is it all down to what happens in America?

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I hear the word 'recovery' daily. But I never hear just what exactly will bring it about.

I know a fall in unemployment, rising manufacturing orders etc will help.

But what will actually trigger the above, and sustain this much-talked of 'recovery'?

Is it all down to what happens in America?

When they QE enough money to show a rise in GDP

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Replying to What Specific Conditions Will End This Recession?

We jump in the DeLorean and go back to 2007.

Gordon will be there, waiting for us with a wink from that eye.

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I'm having trouble seeing the scenario as well.

I've yet hear anyone clearly explain what could work other than blind faith in government/"free markets" depending.

But those tend to be discussions of how the present situation could have been avoided and critiques of various aspects of the system, people's behavior, etc. rather than a narrative that explains how the present circumstances can be relieved.

Edited by Cogs

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I hear the word 'recovery' daily. But I never hear just what exactly will bring it about.

I know a fall in unemployment, rising manufacturing orders etc will help.

But what will actually trigger the above, and sustain this much-talked of 'recovery'?

Is it all down to what happens in America?

Swine flu. It'll take out half the population and whoever's left will be loaded. Same as it was with the Black Death :ph34r:

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I'm having trouble seeing the scenario as well.

I've yet hear anyone clearly explain what could work other than blind faith in government/"free markets" depending.

But those tend to be discussions of how the present situation could have been avoided and critiques of various aspects of the system, people's behavior, etc. rather than a narrative that explains how the present circumstances can be relieved.

Yep.

When it comes down to it the whole 'recovery' is riding on the back of the VAT cut and the scrappage scheme.

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paying down debt

a new government

assetts priced correctly

leading to correct allocation of capital and therefore productive effort

as opposed to people, for example, leveraging up what little capital they have and 'investing' in empty piles of bricks in obscure regional town centres

Edited by Si1

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paying down debt

a new government

assetts priced correctly

Yup, plus more sensible expectations in people's heads about what the future is likely to hold and so adjusting borrowing/saving/spending patterns to an appropriate level. Once individuals, companies, and governments are living within their means again there will be no need for further falls.

Edited by bearly legal

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable

We'll have to wait for the Goldman Sachs Merry Bingo Proletarian Payout.

Buy your ticket to the future, today.

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Some clever chap will design a hover car that everyone will have to have. A whole new industry will spring up around it - which will be based in China :unsure: .

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I think the stabilisation of house prices in America. Once that happens the banks etc will be able to better assess the value of all the bundles of securitised mortgages they sold each other.

I thought prices in America would have bottomed out by now, but it still seems absolute carnage over there.

It is very anecdotal, but my mother in law visited family in California and said that there were repossessed signs all over the place. You could really see the HPC over there. As we know, in America you can just hand back the keys and walk away. It ruins your credit rating but the debt doesn't follow you.

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paying down debt

assetts priced correctly

yep, which is why it will take a good couple of decades at least before a real and sustainable base will be found, they'll be plenty of false recoveries lasting months and perhaps years during this period but the genuine base is decades away which isnt that long as its taken a good 50 years of various malinvestment building to a crescendo to get the west into this position

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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People having more purchasing power in their pockets.

Young people with no debts. Old people with performing pensions. They'll be first out of the recession.

It's almost inconceivable to think of adults between 30 and 50 with no debts, unless they're rich. So several years for them.

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I hear the word 'recovery' daily. But I never hear just what exactly will bring it about.

I know a fall in unemployment, rising manufacturing orders etc will help.

But what will actually trigger the above, and sustain this much-talked of 'recovery'?

Is it all down to what happens in America?

paid off

written off

or inflated away (but that may bring other problems)

until then green shoots are baloney

0424_clip_image002.jpg

post-2696-1247682585_thumb.jpg

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paid off

written off

or inflated away (but that may bring other problems)

until then green shoots are baloney

0424_clip_image002.jpg

Is this in the posted graphs thread? It should be, please.

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snip As we know, in America you can just hand back the keys and walk away. It ruins your credit rating but the debt doesn't follow you.

but people with a bad rating cant borrow for a new car if they wanted to.

so they lose the house, the bank gets a default, and the US has a new non contributor to the consumer spend required for every bad debtor they create.

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