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For you I'm guessing near 100% correlated with the price of tin foil

Cheers.

What is it though?

So far we've had a price index of arbitary goods unrelated to the money supply and a sraky remark.

Got any inflation stats?

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What's the inflation figure though?

30%+ on the money supply.

On course for wages to keep falling.How they cheered mortgage rates at 4.0% sitting on 100K+ debts.Until they wake up and see real wages falling 3%+ a year.

Oh dear the interest rate is up to 7%.And rising.

Everything the government spends on has inflation.Everything it gets has deflation.Happy days for the deficit :o

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Which money supply?

Sterling maybe?

You can do injindollars if you like, but I have to tell you that the central bank of Injin doesn't release figures regularly.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=apBiqZ7FP19g

“Buy now,†said Kenro Kawano, a fixed-income strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG in Tokyo, the most bullish of the primary dealers, with a yield forecast of 1 percent. “Deflation pressure will increase. Banks are accumulating JGBs, and the pace is increasing.â€

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=aHk4RH2RJrf0

Bullard said high unemployment alone won’t justify rates remaining near zero and added officials will probably raise the Fed’s target interest rate over the next two years.

“If we are still at zero, say, two years from now, we will have entered a Japanese-style deflation trap and we will not have succeeded,†Bullard said, referring to the federal funds rate in an interview at the bank’s headquarters.

Once the toothpaste is being sucked into the black hole it will be difficult to extract it again.

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Remember, 12 months ago oil was $140 a barrel. Today its just $60. Thats a fall of %50 which has worked its way through to prices of a lot of things. It had falled to $60 by beginning of October. Once we reach October, assuming oil is still around the $60 mark the peak would have dropped out the annual figures and inflation will start creeping up.

November we'll see the interest rate slashes drop out of the inflation figures and in December we'll see the VAT cut drop out.

Anyone hazard a guess what inflation will hit come december?

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Remember, 12 months ago oil was $140 a barrel. Today its just $60. Thats a fall of %50 which has worked its way through to prices of a lot of things. It had falled to $60 by beginning of October. Once we reach October, assuming oil is still around the $60 mark the peak would have dropped out the annual figures and inflation will start creeping up.

November we'll see the interest rate slashes drop out of the inflation figures and in December we'll see the VAT cut drop out.

Anyone hazard a guess what inflation will hit come december?

I dunno, but I reckon gold will be below $300 by then. ;)

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M4 is up 16.3% in the year so far.Where is it? When will it be released into the economy?.

It is attempting to "cover" the trillions that are "missing" having been created by creative financing vehicles to bankroll the world housing bubbles. Our bubble alone is off the order of $4TR and Brown is throwing the odd hundred billion at it. We basically have a South Sea situation only worse and more global.

Japanese style deflation is likley.

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It's important to keep in mind what's happening to the CPI index itself so you can mentally 'see' what could happen over the next few months.

cpi0609.gif

Note that the index is currently rising, but it's not rising as fast as it was last year, hence the annual inflation rate has gradually been declining.

However, in September 2008 the CPI index actually started to fall, hitting a short-term low in January 2009 of 108.7. Since then it's risen every month.

This means that as we get towards the end of the year, unless CPI starts to fall again or at least levels off, we're going to see a sudden reversal of the below-target inflation number, and it could rise quite rapidly well above the MPC target. For example, if that line reaches 112.0 by January 2009 then headline CPI will be at 3.0%. It may only be temporary, but the BoE could find itself pressured if it has extended the QE programme.

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Guest KingCharles1st
On course for wages to keep falling.How they cheered mortgage rates at 4.0% sitting on 100K+ debts.Until they wake up and see real wages falling 3%+ a year.

is this the AVERAGE wage- or the average wage of people still in work.

Does it include the self employed, and all he other people whose income is not so easily entered- for example- my business' throughput of money has dropped by around 70%, and I won't have a final figure for the taxman of where I am NOW, until April 2010 at the earliest.

I would say things are very very shit- and are going to get shitter

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It's important to keep in mind what's happening to the CPI index itself so you can mentally 'see' what could happen over the next few months.

cpi0609.gif

Note that the index is currently rising, but it's not rising as fast as it was last year, hence the annual inflation rate has gradually been declining.

However, in September 2008 the CPI index actually started to fall, hitting a short-term low in January 2009 of 108.7. Since then it's risen every month.

This means that as we get towards the end of the year, unless CPI starts to fall again or at least levels off, we're going to see a sudden reversal of the below-target inflation number, and it could rise quite rapidly well above the MPC target. For example, if that line reaches 112.0 by January 2009 then headline CPI will be at 3.0%. It may only be temporary, but the BoE could find itself pressured if it has extended the QE programme.

No really, inflation is a measure of the money supply.

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is this the AVERAGE wage- or the average wage of people still in work.

Does it include the self employed, and all he other people whose income is not so easily entered- for example- my business' throughput of money has dropped by around 70%, and I won't have a final figure for the taxman of where I am NOW, until April 2010 at the earliest.

I would say things are very very shit- and are going to get shitter

People still in work.So as you say the situation is much worse.

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No really, inflation is a measure of the money supply.

No, inflation is the rate of change of prices. You can disagree with the contents/weighting of the baskets used to estimate inflation (personally I would favour greater weighting of essentials like food, housing, and energy), but that doesn't change what inflation is. It's looking at the price tag and writing down the number.

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No, inflation is the rate of change of prices. You can disagree with the contents/weighting of the baskets used to estimate inflation (personally I would favour greater weighting of essentials like food, housing, and energy), but that doesn't change what inflation is. It's looking at the price tag and writing down the number.

No, really inflation is now and always has been an increase in the money supply.

The central banker would quite like for you to look at the very laggy indicator of prices on a set of goods that they brbe someone to measure, it lets them steal more from you.

Edited by Injin

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No, inflation is the rate of change of prices. You can disagree with the contents/weighting of the baskets used to estimate inflation (personally I would favour greater weighting of essentials like food, housing, and energy), but that doesn't change what inflation is. It's looking at the price tag and writing down the number.

so supply and demand affect inflation. therefore the price of individual goods would have their own inflation.

No, its the value of money compared to total wealth it represents that is inflation. ie, how many units are divided into the total wealth represented by the units. Add more units, the wealth remains the same so the value of each unit goes down.

simples.

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M4 is up 16.3% in the year so far.Where is it? When will it be released into the economy?.

"M4 is up 16.3% in the year so far"

Do you mean YOY? Is this adjusted M4 or not? What has happened to the velocity?

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