Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Hawk

House Prices Will Stay In The Doldrums For Years, Report Predicts

Recommended Posts

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/ju...prices-recovery

House prices will stay in the doldrums for years, report predicts

Britain's housing market will stay in the doldrums until the middle of the next decade, and there is a 30% chance that prices will take until 2020 to return to their peak before the crash, a consultancy firm predicted today .

PricewaterhouseCoopers said recent signs of a recovery in the market which had been detected by a fresh survey of estate agents released this morning were a "false dawn". John Hawksworth, the chief economist at PWC, said prices would experience a gentle decline for the next 18 months and then pick up slowly over the following years.

"Although the estimated average UK house price overvaluation of around 25% in mid-2007 has now been largely eliminated, our analysis suggests that house prices could still have further to fall over the next year.

"Despite some recent reports of rises, we are not out of the woods yet by any means. It is important for buyers to take a long-term rather than a short-term view."

He added that house prices were likely to fall by a further 5-10%.

Hawksworth predicted a repetition of house price movements in the 1990s, when a collapse was followed by a long period of little change. "After a recession it takes time for people to get their confidence back and for memories to fade. Credit conditions will remain tight for some time and we expect unemployment to rise for the next year or so. There will be an environment of job insecurity where people are cautious about buying a house."

PWC said it was more likely than not that real house prices in 2015 could still be below average levels seen in 2008, after adjusting for inflation. Even in 2020, after five years of relatively strong growth, the consultancy saw a 30% chance that real house prices could be below 2008 levels.

In its monthly property snapshot, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said price expectations rose for the first time in over two years in June due to a lack of homes on the market and an increase in buyer enquiries.

Jeremy Leaf, RICS spokesman, said: "Although the market is showing signs of improvement, it is unlikely that there will be a sustained upturn while mortgage lenders remain risk adverse. A lack of stock on the market is providing a platform for modest price increases. While supply remains tight, the market may continue to show tentative signs of firming but instructions are starting to increase in some regions and this could dampen any meaningful recovery as long as economic conditions remain quite so uncertain."

Hawksworth said: "What would be a surprise would be if house prices now started to recover strongly in a sustained way. That would go against the lessons of history. There may be the odd month where the market seems to be going up but it is a false dawn because there is no underlying strength."

He added: "The pace of recovery in house prices seems likely to be relatively modest until the middle of the next decade, although it could pick up again beyond that as supply shortages reassert themselves, credit conditions return to normal and negative memories of the current housing bust fade."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is true apart from parts of Scotland and Maidstone where prices are already on there way to doubling and are predicted to treble by 2011. Those in the know very wisely bought properties in 2007. The BTL landlords in these areas are revered locally for their great wisdom. Indeed they are virtual Gods in the property investment fraternity. I have a very special surprise for you all tonight, for one night only, I ask you to put your hands together and welcome our guest speakers Mr...................................................................What do you mean they have all fvcked off!

Edited by Tim Miller

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This is true apart from parts of Scotland and Maidstone where prices are already on there way to doubling and are predicted to treble by 2011. Those in the know very wisely bought properties in 2007. The BTL landlords in these areas are revered locally for their great wisdom. Indeed they are virtual Gods in the property investment fraternity. I have a very special surprise for you all tonight, for one night only, I ask you to put your hands together and welcome our guest speakers Mr...................................................................What do you mean they have all fvcked off!

:lol::lol::lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
:lol::lol::lol:

I spat my coffee out writing that stuff, you just got to laugh! :lol::lol::lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   292 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.