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FTSE 100 4179.35+1.26%

The portfolios looking a bit healthier today after last weeks bath. IMO, the bear market is now over, as previous lows haven't been breached. We could see a decent run from here.

Or am I just deluded, like our BTL friends?? :unsure:

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It's the recovery, don't discount the recovery.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8144785.stm

The number of profit warnings by UK-listed firms fell in April-June to their lowest second quarter level since 2003, a report has said.

There were 63 warnings issued by firms listed on the London Stock Exchange in the quarter, down 36% from a year ago, said accountants Ernst & Young (E&Y).

The decline may add to the growing feeling that the UK is nearing the bottom of the recession, E&Y said.

But it added that the economy still had a "difficult road ahead".

"Many companies have withdrawn profit guidance due to a difficult forecasting environment, while three successive quarters of negative growth have diminished market expectations," said Keith McGregor, restructuring partner at E&Y.

"Add in hamstrung banks and a lingering credit crunch, and it's apparent that although the economy appears more stable and the outlook brighter than at anytime in the past year, UK plc still has a difficult road ahead."

Probably seen as good news, however I doubt the profits will justify the share price.

However when you high on coke what's reality got to do with anything.

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FTSE 100 4179.35+1.26%

The portfolios looking a bit healthier today after last weeks bath. IMO, the bear market is now over, as previous lows haven't been breached yet. We could see a decent run from here, or repeated tests of the lows before the breach a couple of months down the line.

Or am I just deluded, like our BTL friends?? :unsure:

Amended

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Philips have reported higher than expected 2nd quarter profits which has helped European markets today.

Everyone is still very jittery though. Don´t expect to see much movement in either direction until September.

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The markets will remain rangebound so long as QE is the main determinant of their level. Bad news is automatically balanced by the increased likelihood of more QE (ie inflation) so share prices remain fairly static. Good news makes QE less likely, so vice versa.

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Philips have reported higher than expected 2nd quarter profits which has helped European markets today.

Everyone is still very jittery though. Don´t expect to see much movement in either direction until September.

Ahem..........The Philips report is a total disaster. Q2 down 94%! over 11,000 jobs cut and more cost cutting to come.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=119816

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable

Aww. Does the ittle wittle FTSE wootsy want another little piece of QE?

Go on then, beg, beg for your QE.

There's a good boy.

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a month ago, shares looked way too expensive, now they look about right, but the markets can over correct both ways so its often difficult to get a good entry point, unless your really gutsy!

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FTSE 100 4179.35+1.26%

The portfolios looking a bit healthier today after last weeks bath. IMO, the bear market is now over, as previous lows haven't been breached. We could see a decent run from here.

Or am I just deluded, like our BTL friends?? :unsure:

I wouldn't count on FTSE not taking another bath before late October but last 2 trading days have boosted my Tesco profits - time to at least raise my stop loss or maybe I will pull out. :o

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Aww. Does the ittle wittle FTSE wootsy want another little piece of QE?

Go on then, beg, beg for your QE.

There's a good boy.

You're such a cynic, but your hearts not in it.

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Meredith Whitney is why the markets are up. "Everything is fu*ked but the banks are ok for the short term".

Hilarious stuff.

Banks Stronger But Outlook Clouded by Job Loss: Whitney

Unemployment is likely to rise to 13 percent or higher :o and will weigh on the economy for several years, countering government efforts to stabilize the banking industry, analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC.

While Whitney raised her short-term outlook for banks, causing stocks to open in positive territory after pointing lower earlier, she said the long-term outlook for the economy remains murky. :lol:

Consumers will not be able to spend as they continue to lose jobs and credit conditions stay tight, :rolleyes: she said in a live interview. The result will provide a vivid display of how critical housing and lending are to economic growth. Unemployment is currently at 9.5 percent but is expected to keep rising.

"We underestimate how much the whole economy is dependent on the mortgage industry, <_< and that has to change," Whitney said. "This is what happens when you delay the inevitable. We're buying time here, but we're not restructuring the economy."

Prior to the interview, Whitney raised hopes for banks when she said Goldman Sachs [GS 147.39 5.52 (+3.89%) ] is in for a hugely profitable quarter. :rolleyes:

She expanded her remarks during her CNBC appearance, saying the Wall Street titan probably will earn $4.65 per share for the second quarter, $20 for the year and more than $22 for 2010.

Banking stocks will be good buys at least in the short term as the industry takes advantage of "the mother of all mortgage quarters," Whitney said.

Little-noticed new Safe Harbor Mortgage Modification rules that went into effect May 20 prohibit mortgage investors from suing loan servicers. The legislation is significant in that it offers added protection for large servicers from investor litigation as the institutions modify mortgages for distressed homeowners.

President Obama endorsed the changes as part of his administration's efforts to head off foreclosures, protect consumers and support the flailing mortgage industry.

Whitney said the new rules will be a boon for larger banks, but the momentum may not last.

"It's a trading call," she said, adding that "you don't want to be short these names."

Banks as a whole could see a 15 percent gain in the short term, "then you flatline, then I think you have another leg down."

Outside of Goldman, Whitney said Bank of America [bAC 12.48 0.60 (+5.05%) ] is "bar none" the cheapest of bank stocks compared to its tangible book value, and said JPMorgan Chase's [JPM 33.2579 0.9179 (+2.84%) ] earnings will provide a bellwether for institutions plagued by large consumer loan losses.

It is joblessness, though, that poses the industry's greatest risk. ;)

"Unemployment continues to drive higher and the banks are not prepared for double-digit unemployment," she said. "That's going to be an issue for them that doesn't go away for the next year and a half."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/31888017

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Ahem..........The Philips report is a total disaster. Q2 down 94%! over 11,000 jobs cut and more cost cutting to come.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=119816

Yep, highlights the pointlessness of trying to equate market direction to a piece of news

The fundamental flaw with trying to fit news events to how a market moves, the reality is the market will go where its gonna go immaterial of any specific piece of news the news is merely slanted and added afterwards to fit the move

Universe 1) Phillips release 94% drop in profits - market rallies 100 points(newspaper prints: Market gains on bullish comments from Phillips CEO regarding future performance)

Universe 2) Phillips release 94% drop in profits - market falls 100 points (newspaper prints: Index stumbles on results from market bellweather)

I remember a few months ago AVIVA got spanked 40% because they announced they were keeping their dividend intact

A few days ago it got spanked again by 25% for saying they were cutting their next one. The news really is completely pointless when it comes understanding how markets move. Its one of the first rules of successful trading

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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What was your criteria?

P/E ratios were rising too quickly for my liking.

Xstrata for example I bought for 289, sold for 760, it went from being valued at £2 Billion to £20 Billion (rights offer helped caused this). Fresnillo went from £1 to £7.5 a share, some of these had 30+ P/Es. These werent small increases, you got the feeling we were getting too far away from the fundementals too quickly.

Half my shares were commodity based and had been factoring the recovery a bit too much.

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I know that news is not always a driver of share prices (whereas the Dow is), but Friends Provident has jumped nearly 14% on the back of a bid from resolution.

It is a constituent of the FTSE.

The other big risers are the other insurance companies and financials, that presumably are being snaffled up in the hope that they too will be subject of a bid.

I have no idea how much of the FTSE is taken up by these 4...

Friends Provident Group 67.99 +7.59 +12.57%

Legal & General Group 53.72 3.82 +7.66%

Aviva 296.00 +19.25 +6.96%

Old Mutual 79.94 +5.06 +6.76%

Edited by bobthe~

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
You're such a cynic, but your hearts not in it.

Infinite wants, finite resources.

It's always going to get dirty.

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Hi Noel

Slightly off topic, can I just say that you have inspired me to start drip feeding a fixed monthly amount into global equity markets, using an ISA, starting at some random moment in the next few months.

I might use Vanguard after reading in the FT about how their ultra-low cost model is storming the US, and try to construct a global fund, using public data about regional market capitalisations to weight my allocations in their various available funds. (I'm still too mean to pay an IFA to work it out.)

I suppose I just want to say thanks for the inspiration, and as an aside ask can you see any flaw in my plan, and, if you don't mind saying, do you invest globally, or just in the UK stock market?

"Slightly off topic, can I just say that you have inspired me to start drip feeding a fixed monthly amount into global equity markets, using an ISA, starting at some random moment in the next few months."

Good news - will be good to start a discussion thread to share ideas

"can you see any flaw in my plan"

Just that I hope you are young enough to be able to ride out the troughs

"just in the UK stock market"

TBH I'm happy enough with the diversity of the FTSE 100 (pharma, oils, mining etc - a large number pay divis in dollars) to stick with the UK.

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vanguard look excellent - altho you do need to get them thru a funds supermarket as otherwise there's a minimum 100k per fund !!

bear in mind they have kicked off a price war, or so it seems. HSBC ar elowering their index fund AMCs all to 0.25% from November, I think (there was a story in the Telegraph)

I would expect L&G to follow suit

only extra thing Vanguard do is an emerging markets index, that nobody else seems to do

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I thought I might find this post hiding away on page 3 or 4. Well the DJIA finished it's strongest gain in weeks and the FTSE is storming up again nicely this morning lead by the banks and miners. Here's to some good earnings and hopefully some more easy moolah.

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FTSE 100 4179.35+1.26%

The portfolios looking a bit healthier today after last weeks bath. IMO, the bear market is now over, as previous lows haven't been breached. We could see a decent run from here.

Or am I just deluded, like our BTL friends?? :unsure:

I've seen the charts linking the path of this market to the depression etc, personally I just can't see it. I am not forecasting huge gains anytine soon but neither do I think new lows will be tested or anything like..... I've been dribbling money back in for quite a while now and feel confortable continuing to do that.

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Guest Steve Cook
Infinite wants, finite resources.

It's always going to get dirty.

yep

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I've seen the charts linking the path of this market to the depression etc, personally I just can't see it. I am not forecasting huge gains anytine soon but neither do I think new lows will be tested or anything like..... I've been dribbling money back in for quite a while now and feel confortable continuing to do that.

well, maybe the fresh round of ALT-A, Option Arm defaults and further large losses on banks balance sheets will help to focus minds on the possibilities of a new recovereh again.

My prediction, another disaster in the offing, reducing credit further, while bail outs further suck spending power from consumers.

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