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El Niño Is Back, Bringing Droughts, Floods, Crop Failures And Social Unrest

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http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/worl...icle6695339.ece

El Niño, the warming of the Pacific Ocean that creates chaos in global weather patterns, is on its way back, threatening droughts, floods, crop failure and social unrest.

According to scientists at America’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a new bout of El Niño is under way as the surface of tropical waters across the eastern Pacific has warmed roughly 1C (1.8F) above normal and is still rising.

Further down, some 150 meters (500ft) below the surface, the waters are heating up — by around 4C (7.2F).

These indications have been emerging for about the past month from satellite pictures and an array of robotic buoys strung out across the Pacific. “The persistently warm sea temperatures are important indicators of an El Niño,†Mike Halpert, of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centre, said.

“We’re also seeing a link between the ocean and the atmosphere, with Indonesia tending to dry out as tropical rainfall shifts towards the international dateline in mid-Pacific.â€

The implications are severe, not just for climate but for the effects on food, water supplies and other commodities. Australia, still recovering from its worst drought in a century, will be hit again if the rains fail to nourish its wheat belt. Indonesia is one of the world’s biggest producers of palm oil — a basic source of income for many of its poor — and a drought would hit this commodity hard.

Farming in India is already suffering from an abnormal monsoon, which scientists think could be related to the emerging El Niño.

The rains arrived early but stalled. They picked up speed again only last week and covered the whole of the country, although rainfall is far lower than normal. There are fears that, if the rains do not improve, water shortages will kill crops and lead to soaring food prices.

Shortages and food prices caused riots all over the world in 2008, from western Africa to Mexico, Uzbekistan, Haiti and Egypt, as well as consumer protests in Europe and panic in food-importing countries. Rice-producing nations were urged to stop hoarding supplies as stocks fell to their lowest levels for 30 years.

The emerging El Niño is expected to continue strengthening over the next few months and reach a peak during the northern hemisphere’s winter. However, every bout of El Niño is different and much depends on the extent to which the Pacific warms up. At present forecasters say that it is too early to assess this El Niño — the NOAA’s meteorologists expect to have a clearer picture in September or October — but early signs suggest that it could become a moderate-to-strong episode.

El Niños are still something of a mystery. They recur every few years and vary hugely in strength but no one entirely understands why. When a severe one does strike it unhinges weather patterns across the Pacific and beyond, leading to drought in some areas and heavy rains in others, such as the western coast of South America.

In the last severe episode in 1997-98 torrential rains pulverised California, heatwaves swept across Australia and Brazil, forest fires blanketed Indonesia, eastern Africa was flooded while southern Africa withered under drought, and floods and storms caused billions of dollars’ damage to crops and buildings.

If you wanted to script a disaster movie you really couldn't make this up, the world on the brink of financial collapse, a potential pandemic and now a natural disaster.

Thank god we have a recovery!!!!!

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You know this is going to turn into a TFH thread, don't you?

Or maybe that's what you meant to kick off :o

Edited by VoteWithYourFeet

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You must have picked this up from my blog entry but i only put it up about a minute ago.

Anyway i have loads piled into Baring Global Agriculture fund so i may personally be on a winner.

Edited by penbat1

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You know this is going to turn into a TFH thread, don't you?

Or maybe that's what you meant to kick off :o

El Nino and La Nina happen fairly regularly and are standard weather phenomenon. Nothing to see here.

The quiet spell the Sun is going into is much more serious. :ph34r:

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El Nino and La Nina happen fairly regularly and are standard weather phenomenon. Nothing to see here.

The quiet spell the Sun is going into is much more serious. :ph34r:

Somehow I doubt it. Never been a major problem before..

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El Nino and La Nina happen fairly regularly and are standard weather phenomenon. Nothing to see here.

The quiet spell the Sun is going into is much more serious. :ph34r:

Oh really - try this for size :rolleyes:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jul/1...nge-environment

As well as droughts, floods and other extreme events, the next few years are also likely to be the hottest on record, scientists say.In the UK, a Met Office spokesman said yesterday that the El Niño event was likely to cause a hot, dry summer following a warm June, but said it could have other unpredictable effects on weather in Britain and north-west Europe. "Much depends on how much the El Niño deepens in the next few months."

"The last major El Niño in 1998 killed more than 2,000 people and caused billions of dollars worth of damage to crops and infrastructure in Australia and Asia. It led to forest fires in south-east Asia, a collapse of fish stocks in South America and a drought threatening 700,000 people in Papua New Guinea.

Strong El Niños often have long-lasting effects. The 1991-92 event led to droughts in Africa and food shortages that left 30 million people at risk of malnutrition and set back development for a decade."

"

Edited by penbat1

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El Nino and La Nina happen fairly regularly and are standard weather phenomenon. Nothing to see here.

You're depriving the doom junkies of their daily fix.

Now they'll have to look for something else.

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Somehow I doubt it. Never been a major problem before..

Human civilisation has always prospered at times of high numbers of sunspots. That is because higher numbers of sunspots correlates with higher global temperatures, which are good for us.

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You're depriving the doom junkies of their daily fix.

Now they'll have to look for something else.

:lol::lol:

wouldn't bet on it, just wait and see...

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The water table in the Punjab is way down causing shortages, electricity derived from water power is badly effected as of two days ago only 15 hours a day of electricity.

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the world on the brink of financial collapse, a potential pandemic and now a natural disaster.

Thank god we have a recovery!!!!!

"the brink of......" ??

"a potential........" ??

Not like you to be behind the game.

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Guest skullingtonjoe
You're depriving the doom junkies of their daily fix.

Now they'll have to look for something else.

Not really, we`re all going to die eventually anyway (surely that`s gloomy enough?) :rolleyes: Maybe I should start my blog again - only problem is my mental health started to go downhill big tiem as I made myself more and more miserable :rolleyes:

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Oh really - try this for size :rolleyes:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jul/1...nge-environment

As well as droughts, floods and other extreme events, the next few years are also likely to be the hottest on record, scientists say.In the UK, a Met Office spokesman said yesterday that the El Niño event was likely to cause a hot, dry summer following a warm June, but said it could have other unpredictable effects on weather in Britain and north-west Europe. "Much depends on how much the El Niño deepens in the next few months."

"The last major El Niño in 1998 killed more than 2,000 people and caused billions of dollars worth of damage to crops and infrastructure in Australia and Asia. It led to forest fires in south-east Asia, a collapse of fish stocks in South America and a drought threatening 700,000 people in Papua New Guinea.

Strong El Niños often have long-lasting effects. The 1991-92 event led to droughts in Africa and food shortages that left 30 million people at risk of malnutrition and set back development for a decade."

"

They've been predicting the hottest year on record for over a decade now and it still hasn't occurred.

Weather harms things. El Nino just causes a different distribution of harm.

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Human civilisation has always prospered at times of high numbers of sunspots. That is because higher numbers of sunspots correlates with higher global temperatures, which are good for us.

Don't suppose you have any actual evidence for this (specifically the sunspot-climate 'connection')?

Oh, and the temperature data is here:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts.txt

Note that 2007 was the hottest ever, followed by 2005 and then 1998.

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Don't suppose you have any actual evidence for this (specifically the sunspot-climate 'connection')?

Oh, and the temperature data is here:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts.txt

Note that 2007 was the hottest ever, followed by 2005 and then 1998.

The GISS data is riddled with errors, and run by James Hansen who fiddles the data to show more warming. Scientists shouldn't have a stake in the game like Hansen.

The Satellite data match the data from Hadley Climate Research Unit - we've been cooling ever since 1998. The sun is implicated.

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The GISS data is riddled with errors, and run by James Hansen who fiddles the data to show more warming. Scientists shouldn't have a stake in the game like Hansen.

The Satellite data match the data from Hadley Climate Research Unit - we've been cooling ever since 1998. The sun is implicated.

Learn more here http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/28/nasa...limate-history/

GISS have been, as controllers of the data, cooling past data and warming up current data. It would be like the Office of National Statistics choosing to say the economy was much smaller in 1997 in order to make out growth has been faster under Labour.

More on Hansen http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/23/dr-j...a-giss-arrested

Edited by Pick It Down

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The GISS data is riddled with errors, and run by James Hansen who fiddles the data to show more warming. Scientists shouldn't have a stake in the game like Hansen.

The Satellite data match the data from Hadley Climate Research Unit - we've been cooling ever since 1998. The sun is implicated.

This would be the school of 'making stuff up'. The difference between the HADCru and GISS datasets is that the Hadley center doesn't cover the poles.. and therefore excludes the biggest temperature rises.

Evidence linking solar changes to earth's temperature is thin to non-existent, surprisingly enough. Not sure why you would pick an extreme outlier year to start your analysis - an explanation other then incompetence?

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Another doomsday post that means nothing - are we going to get this again in 11 years time?

I presonally like La Nina years - the skiing is fantastic!

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Another doomsday post that means nothing - are we going to get this again in 11 years time?

I presonally like La Nina years - the skiing is fantastic!

Why is it a doomsday post?

Luckily El Nino doesn't have an economic impact isn't it. If it's bad I mean we can only expect food shortages and food inflation, so your correct nothing to see here.

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This would be the school of 'making stuff up'. The difference between the HADCru and GISS datasets is that the Hadley center doesn't cover the poles.. and therefore excludes the biggest temperature rises.

Evidence linking solar changes to earth's temperature is thin to non-existent, surprisingly enough. Not sure why you would pick an extreme outlier year to start your analysis - an explanation other then incompetence?

But the south pole is cooling and ice extent growing, so your point is based on an incorrect assumption anyway (and don't throw that idiotic Steig report at me). This might be part of the polar see-saw, where one pole cools as another warms over the decadal timeframe.

I started my analysis in 1998 as that's when the cooling started.

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But the south pole is cooling and ice extent growing, so your point is based on an incorrect assumption anyway (and don't throw that idiotic Steig report at me). This might be part of the polar see-saw, where one pole cools as another warms over the decadal timeframe.

No, the south pole is not cooling.

I started my analysis in 1998 as that's when the cooling started.

Statistics isn't your strong point, is it? You cannot arbitrarily pick your start point before starting your analysis. Did you perhaps attend the New Labour school of making figures look like you want them to?

In any case, your initial assertion was nothing to do with this, it was an assertion that changes in the sunspot cycle would have an effect on global temperatures; do you have any evidence for this?

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No, the south pole is not cooling.

Statistics isn't your strong point, is it? You cannot arbitrarily pick your start point before starting your analysis. Did you perhaps attend the New Labour school of making figures look like you want them to?

In any case, your initial assertion was nothing to do with this, it was an assertion that changes in the sunspot cycle would have an effect on global temperatures; do you have any evidence for this?

What like your RC buddy Rahmsdorf did?

Ooh ooh it's worse than we thought.

:lol:

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El Nino causes problems in some parts of the world

La Nina causes problems in other parts of the world

having neither causes problems in some parts of the world.

So regardless of how warm the equatorial Pacific ocean is, someone, somewhere will be suffering weather extremes. El Nino just makes it happen more in the USA, hence the panic.

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Lord knows how we managed to get through the last 200,000 (plus) years worth.

Of course "WE" didn't get through the last 200,000 years. "THEY" were more skilled, there were an awful lot less of them and they had room to grow.

If we have to go through what "THEY" went through then "WE" are stuffed.

The same thing happening to different people at a different point in time might actualy have a vastly different outcome.

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